Peonage Pigskin – The First 3 Weeks

Well, we took 3 weeks for me to actually have time to write something.  Part of it is time, and part of it was the model not converging.  But here we are, with a first ranking.  Obviously there is a lot of noise.  The average rating is 62, but the average STANDARD ERROR is 831.  So there is a ton of noise, and you expect that to go down as the season progresses.  This year, we’re using a Bradley-Terry model, which is outlined here (I tweaked it to use fractional wins to account for scoring margin)  The nice thing here is that the model – unlike the RPI – determines strength of schedule from the results, instead of having it imposed.  Now it’s limited by being backwards looking – but it has the advantage of assuming every team starts 0-0.  The model knows exactly as much about the teams as the teams’ games have reflected.  Alabama looks like the best team to me – but Duke has won 3 games decisively against FBS opponents including 2 true road wins.  With so little data now – that counts for a lot.

The ratings can be interpreted as victory odds.  So Alabama, based on the games and scoring margins to date – is likely to beat Indiana 2/3 of the time on a neutral field.

TEAM CONF W L RTG
1 Alabama SEC 3 0 391.8272
2 Duke ACC 3 0 314.6662
3 LSU SEC 3 0 236.4302
4 Penn State Big Ten 3 0 230.8822
5 Georgia SEC 3 0 229.7978
6 Indiana Big Ten 3 0 195.9335
7 Oklahoma State Big 12 3 0 185.7086
8 Ohio State Big Ten 3 0 179.811
9 Clemson ACC 3 0 178.9146
10 Mississippi State SEC 3 0 165.3629
11 Boston College ACC 3 0 157.1893
12 Oklahoma Big 12 3 0 153.0116
13 Kentucky SEC 3 0 128.3059
14 Notre Dame Ind 3 0 128.1531
15 Stanford Pac 12 3 0 123.9128
16 California Pac 12 3 0 120.0303
17 Washington State Pac 12 3 0 117.1462
18 Syracuse ACC 3 0 116.8423
19 Buffalo MAC 3 0 113.3421
20 North Texas C-USA 3 0 111.0716
21 West Virginia Big 12 2 0 107.7263
22 Virginia Tech ACC 2 0 103.9993
23 Army Ind 2 1 102.8839
24 UCF American 2 0 102.0586
25 South Florida American 3 0 101.9718
26 Minnesota Big Ten 3 0 100.5921
27 Cincinnati American 3 0 100
28 Akron MAC 2 0 99.36283
29 Boise State MWC 2 1 98.7169
30 Appalachian State Sun Belt 1 1 96.12706
31 Colorado Pac 12 3 0 92.26737
32 Vanderbilt SEC 2 1 91.24281
33 Louisiana Tech C-USA 2 0 88.6083
34 Auburn SEC 2 1 85.35776
35 Hawaii MWC 3 1 82.03129
36 Virginia ACC 2 1 79.87612
37 Missouri SEC 3 0 78.39522
38 Iowa Big Ten 3 0 77.52482
39 Ole Miss SEC 2 1 75.57031
40 BYU Ind 2 1 72.91397
41 Miami-FL ACC 2 1 72.40541
42 Washington Pac 12 2 1 71.8749
43 Arkansas State Sun Belt 2 1 68.7669
44 Michigan Big Ten 2 1 64.5022
45 Texas A&M SEC 2 1 62.87321
46 Fresno State MWC 2 1 62.74266
47 Marshall C-USA 2 0 61.52169
48 Oregon Pac 12 3 0 60.46253
49 TCU Big 12 2 1 57.07969
50 NC State ACC 2 0 55.79934
51 South Carolina SEC 1 1 54.04228
52 FIU C-USA 2 1 52.72031
53 Houston American 2 1 52.41703
54 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 2 1 50.18161
55 Baylor Big 12 2 1 49.28424
56 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 2 1 49.27636
57 Wake Forest ACC 2 1 49.25461
58 San Diego State MWC 2 1 48.97516
59 Eastern Michigan MAC 2 1 47.52213
60 Texas Tech Big 12 2 1 46.76711
61 Memphis American 2 1 46.16184
62 Florida Atlantic C-USA 2 1 46.06605
63 Wisconsin Big Ten 2 1 44.83163
64 Arizona State Pac 12 2 1 44.45318
65 Illinois Big Ten 2 1 43.53292
66 Michigan State Big Ten 1 1 43.18781
67 Navy American 2 1 42.39639
68 Texas Big 12 2 1 40.41018
69 Florida SEC 2 1 38.90917
70 Pittsburgh ACC 2 1 37.5394
71 Liberty Ind 1 1 36.66896
72 Maryland Big Ten 2 1 36.22492
73 Nevada MWC 2 1 35.59293
74 Utah Pac 12 2 1 34.82491
75 LA-Lafayette Sun Belt 1 1 34.52911
76 Ball State MAC 1 2 34.04602
77 Troy Sun Belt 2 1 32.78711
78 Utah State MWC 2 1 32.70955
79 LA-Monroe Sun Belt 2 1 31.47361
80 Air Force MWC 1 1 31.144
81 Northwestern Big Ten 1 2 30.94003
82 UAB C-USA 2 1 30.46617
83 USC Pac 12 1 2 29.91048
84 New Mexico MWC 2 1 29.84983
85 Tennessee SEC 2 1 28.08627
86 Louisville ACC 2 1 27.68249
87 Georgia Tech ACC 1 2 26.9026
88 South Alabama Sun Belt 1 2 26.47747
89 Kansas Big 12 2 1 26.32415
90 Kent State MAC 1 2 26.09076
91 Oregon State Pac 12 1 2 26.01972
92 MTSU C-USA 1 2 25.28967
93 Temple American 1 2 24.2328
94 Kansas State Big 12 2 1 22.96751
95 Rutgers Big Ten 1 2 22.25256
96 UNLV MWC 2 1 22.24587
97 Iowa State Big 12 0 2 21.75959
98 Charlotte C-USA 2 1 21.54634
99 Southern Miss C-USA 1 1 19.90826
100 Ohio MAC 1 1 19.62662
101 Toledo MAC 1 1 18.9247
102 Western Michigan MAC 1 2 18.91171
103 Wyoming MWC 2 2 18.89691
104 Arizona Pac 12 1 2 18.46037
105 Tulsa American 1 2 16.72408
106 Tulane American 1 2 16.59541
107 Florida State ACC 1 2 16.08489
108 Massachusetts Ind 1 3 16.05062
109 Colorado State MWC 1 3 14.99661
110 Connecticut American 1 2 14.21074
111 Arkansas SEC 1 2 13.89574
112 Texas State Sun Belt 1 2 12.92468
113 Nebraska Big Ten 0 2 12.63181
114 Georgia State Sun Belt 1 2 12.56469
115 Northern Illinois MAC 1 2 12.38911
116 Purdue Big Ten 0 3 11.63376
117 Rice C-USA 1 2 11.44312
118 North Carolina ACC 0 2 10.97318
119 East Carolina American 1 1 10.9426
120 Miami-OH MAC 0 3 10.63982
121 UCLA Pac 12 0 3 10.36811
122 Old Dominion C-USA 0 3 10.25546
123 Bowling Green MAC 1 2 9.598835
124 SMU American 0 3 8.998186
125 UTSA C-USA 0 3 6.467489
126 Central Michigan MAC 0 3 6.109851
127 Western Kentucky C-USA 0 3 4.645834
128 Other Other 6 83 4.387402
129 San Jose State MWC 0 3 3.487306
130 New Mexico State Ind 0 4 3.35678
131 UTEP C-USA 0 3 1.751285

What would a perfect CFP look like?  For me, it takes the 10 conference champs and 6 at-larges.  The power 5 teams are the top 5 seeds, with one Group of 5 team joining them as a top 6 seed if it is higher ranked than any of the Power 5 champions.  For now, we use the rankings for conference champs.

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

  • SEC – Alabama
  • ACC – Duke
  • Big Ten – Penn State
  • Big 12 – Oklahoma State
  • Pac 12 – Stanford
  • AAC – Central Florida
  • C-USA – North Texas
  • Sun Belt – Appalachian State
  • MAC – Buffalo
  • MWC – Boise State

AT LARGE: LSU, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio State, Clemson, Mississippi State

  • SUGAR BOWL REGION: (1) Alabama v (4) Appalachian State, (2) Indiana v (3) Clemson
  • PEACH BOWL REGION: (1) Duke v (4) Boise State, (2) Georgia v (3) Ohio State
  • ROSE BOWL REGION: (1) Penn State v (4) Central Florida, (2) LSU v (3) Buffalo
  • FIESTA BOWL REGION: (1) Oklahoma State v (4) North Texas, (2) Stanford v (3) Mississippi State

 

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