Peonage Pigskin – Week 4

Each week, we learn a little more – and the model shows.  After last week where the average SE was 13x the average rating, now it has gone down almost 50%.  The average rating is 77, but the average STANDARD ERROR is 649.  So these standings are noisy, but better.  This year, we’re using a Bradley-Terry model, which is outlined here (I tweaked it to use fractional wins to account for scoring margin)  The nice thing here is that the model – unlike the RPI – determines strength of schedule from the results, instead of having it imposed.  Now it’s limited by being backwards looking – but it has the advantage of assuming every team starts 0-0.  The model knows exactly as much about the teams as the teams’ games have reflected.

Really the standings show the teams who deserve hat tips for excellent starts.  If you didn’t have a preseason ranking and only knew the teams from the field – North Texas and Buffalo’s lofty rankings would actually look pretty legitimate.  As we dive into conference play though, things will be harder to continue.  The non-power conference teams will start to run out of ways to keep that rating up, while the opposite is true for Power teams.  Put simply, Ohio State will start to move up – possibly as soon as this week with its first true road game.

The ratings can be interpreted as victory odds.  So Alabama, based on the games and scoring margins to date – is likely to beat Indiana 2/3 of the time on a neutral field.

What would a perfect CFP look like?  For me, it takes the 10 conference champs and 6 at-larges.  The power 5 teams are the top 5 seeds, with one Group of 5 team joining them as a top 6 seed if it is higher ranked than any of the Power 5 champions.  For now, we use the rankings for conference champs.

(thru September 28 – so the weeknight games this week are here)

TEAM CONF W L RTG
1 Georgia SEC 4 0 660.6688
2 Alabama SEC 4 0 633.7399
3 LSU SEC 4 0 420.1625
4 Duke ACC 4 0 359.0451
5 Penn State Big Ten 4 0 293.0829
6 Kentucky SEC 4 0 287.6833
7 Clemson ACC 4 0 239.7653
8 Stanford Pac 12 4 0 233.2504
9 Oklahoma Big 12 4 0 218.9313
10 North Texas C-USA 4 0 202.5375
11 Buffalo MAC 4 0 189.5459
12 Ohio State Big Ten 4 0 180.5093
13 Syracuse ACC 4 0 175.8746
14 California Pac 12 3 0 169.2289
15 Notre Dame Ind 4 0 168.7941
16 Miami-FL ACC 4 1 167.0898
17 South Carolina SEC 2 1 166.2085
18 UCF American 3 0 149.7361
19 Ole Miss SEC 3 1 145.237
20 NC State ACC 3 0 141.0831
21 Texas Tech Big 12 3 1 131.0026
22 Auburn SEC 3 1 128.7719
23 BYU Ind 3 1 126.1002
24 Michigan State Big Ten 2 1 125.4917
25 West Virginia Big 12 3 0 120.2589
26 Wisconsin Big Ten 3 1 109.7262
27 Mississippi State SEC 3 1 106.2756
28 Washington Pac 12 3 1 104.0794
29 Appalachian State Sun Belt 2 1 102.032
30 Michigan Big Ten 3 1 100.1412
31 Cincinnati American 4 0 100
32 Colorado Pac 12 4 0 90.26881
33 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 3 1 86.89222
34 Indiana Big Ten 3 1 86.71487
35 Army Ind 2 2 86.45454
36 Virginia ACC 3 1 85.66712
37 Boise State MWC 2 1 85.53121
38 South Florida American 4 0 83.99939
39 Houston American 3 1 83.87512
40 Missouri SEC 3 1 83.8103
41 Arkansas State Sun Belt 3 1 80.67368
42 Texas Big 12 3 1 78.59519
43 San Diego State MWC 3 1 78.51951
44 Florida SEC 3 1 74.39499
45 Baylor Big 12 3 1 73.01797
46 Washington State Pac 12 3 1 72.4721
47 Maryland Big Ten 3 1 69.3991
48 Oklahoma State Big 12 3 1 68.55153
49 Arizona State Pac 12 2 2 63.25742
50 Louisiana Tech C-USA 2 1 62.83179
51 Utah State MWC 3 1 61.98127
52 Texas A&M SEC 2 2 61.90032
53 Hawaii MWC 4 1 61.64345
54 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 2 1 59.90282
55 Eastern Michigan MAC 2 2 58.86508
56 Minnesota Big Ten 3 1 58.28396
57 USC Pac 12 2 2 57.22129
58 Boston College ACC 3 1 54.69548
59 Vanderbilt SEC 2 2 53.64126
60 Fresno State MWC 2 1 52.28496
61 Akron MAC 2 1 51.24693
62 Iowa Big Ten 3 1 49.83405
63 TCU Big 12 2 2 49.46578
64 Troy Sun Belt 3 1 49.03898
65 FIU C-USA 2 2 46.86839
66 Oregon Pac 12 3 1 44.12704
67 New Mexico MWC 2 1 43.43097
68 Temple American 2 2 42.09517
69 Marshall C-USA 2 1 41.50229
70 Iowa State Big 12 1 2 41.08278
71 Toledo MAC 2 1 40.35052
72 UAB C-USA 2 1 40.16297
73 Arizona Pac 12 2 2 40.15094
74 Florida Atlantic C-USA 2 2 38.95013
75 Virginia Tech ACC 2 1 38.6156
76 Utah Pac 12 2 1 37.19878
77 Western Michigan MAC 2 2 35.504
78 Northwestern Big Ten 1 2 33.18816
79 Illinois Big Ten 2 2 32.56492
80 Wake Forest ACC 2 2 30.47676
81 Liberty Ind 1 2 29.7661
82 Louisville ACC 2 2 28.82846
83 Memphis American 3 2 27.71375
84 UNLV MWC 2 2 26.15418
85 LA-Lafayette Sun Belt 1 2 24.94671
86 Air Force MWC 1 2 24.79062
87 Pittsburgh ACC 2 2 24.73787
88 Navy American 2 2 24.58418
89 Purdue Big Ten 1 3 24.48725
90 MTSU C-USA 1 2 24.21865
91 Southern Miss C-USA 2 1 23.96121
92 Ohio MAC 1 2 23.43604
93 Tulane American 2 3 23.38714
94 LA-Monroe Sun Belt 2 2 21.98554
95 Kansas Big 12 2 2 21.93367
96 Kent State MAC 1 3 21.82423
97 Massachusetts Ind 2 3 21.67998
98 Kansas State Big 12 2 2 20.39438
99 Wyoming MWC 2 2 19.33606
100 Georgia Tech ACC 1 3 19.26321
101 Nevada MWC 2 2 19.25569
102 Old Dominion C-USA 1 3 17.9149
103 Florida State ACC 2 2 17.61
104 Charlotte C-USA 2 2 17.54844
105 North Carolina ACC 1 3 17.23679
106 Tennessee SEC 2 2 16.83127
107 Tulsa American 1 3 16.58694
108 SMU American 1 3 16.23462
109 Rutgers Big Ten 1 3 15.75488
110 Miami-OH MAC 1 3 15.67183
111 East Carolina American 1 2 14.5641
112 Connecticut American 1 3 14.54446
113 South Alabama Sun Belt 1 3 14.4026
114 Western Kentucky C-USA 1 3 13.638
115 Nebraska Big Ten 0 3 13.44066
116 Oregon State Pac 12 1 3 12.23398
117 Ball State MAC 1 3 11.67624
118 Arkansas SEC 1 3 10.24532
119 UTSA C-USA 1 3 10.07431
120 Rice C-USA 1 3 9.697127
121 Northern Illinois MAC 1 3 9.500462
122 UCLA Pac 12 0 4 9.309858
123 Texas State Sun Belt 1 3 8.16726
124 Georgia State Sun Belt 1 3 7.819892
125 Central Michigan MAC 1 3 7.585301
126 Bowling Green MAC 1 3 6.115704
127 Colorado State MWC 1 4 5.7116
128 New Mexico State Ind 1 4 5.223786
129 Other Other 7 89 4.393489
130 San Jose State MWC 0 3 3.372388
131 UTEP C-USA 0 4 1.121426

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

  • SEC – Georgia
  • ACC – Duke
  • Big Ten – Penn State
  • Big 12 – Oklahoma
  • Pac 12 – Stanford
  • AAC – Central Florida
  • C-USA – North Texas
  • Sun Belt – Appalachian State
  • MAC – Buffalo
  • MWC – Boise State

AT LARGE: Alabama, LSU, Penn State, Kentucky, Clemson, Ohio State

  • PEACH BOWL REGION: (1) Georgia v (4) Boise State, (2) Oklahoma v (3) Clemson
  • SUGAR BOWL REGION: (1) Duke v (4) Appalachian State, (2) LSU v (3) North Texas
  • ROSE BOWL REGION: (1) Penn State v (4) Central Florida, (2) Alabama v (3) Buffalo
  • FIESTA BOWL REGION: (1) Stanford v (4) Syracuse, (2) Kentucky v (3) Ohio State

 

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