Peonage Pigskin – Week 5

Each week, we learn a little more – and the model shows.  After last week where the average SE was 13x the average rating, now it has gone down almost 50%.  The average rating is 77, but the average STANDARD ERROR is 575.  So these standings are noisy, but better.  This year, we’re using a Bradley-Terry model, which is outlined here (I tweaked it to use fractional wins to account for scoring margin)  The nice thing here is that the model – unlike the RPI – determines strength of schedule from the results, instead of having it imposed.  Now it’s limited by being backwards looking – but it has the advantage of assuming every team starts 0-0.  The model knows exactly as much about the teams as the teams’ games have reflected.

And now, a couple of big games with titans suddenly made some big changes.  Notre Dame’s rout of Stanford and Ohio State’s gallant comeback at Penn State result in big jumps.  Louisville’s terrible-ness has held Alabama’s schedule back – they certainly don’t have a #1 resume.  Of course Duke and Buffalo took thumps after their great non-league starts.

What would a perfect CFP look like?  For me, it takes the 10 conference champs and 6 at-larges.  The power 5 teams are the top 5 seeds, with one Group of 5 team joining them as a top 6 seed if it is higher ranked than any of the Power 5 champions.  For now, we use the rankings for conference champs.

(thru October 5 – so the weeknight games this week are here)

TEAM CONF W L RTG
1 LSU SEC 5 0 481.3462
2 Georgia SEC 5 0 481.0523
3 Alabama SEC 5 0 393.9854
4 Kentucky SEC 5 0 354.6355
5 Ohio State Big Ten 5 0 270.8414
6 Notre Dame Ind 5 0 270.8285
7 Clemson ACC 5 0 259.6178
8 Oklahoma Big 12 5 0 231.4038
9 West Virginia Big 12 4 0 210.2996
10 Stanford Pac 12 4 1 156.5947
11 Penn State Big Ten 4 1 144.9457
12 NC State ACC 4 0 139.0089
13 Syracuse ACC 4 1 136.9626
14 UCF American 4 0 134.1175
15 Miami-FL ACC 4 1 133.214
16 Auburn SEC 4 1 133.0122
17 Florida SEC 4 1 114.2288
18 Washington Pac 12 4 1 113.9248
19 Michigan Big Ten 4 1 108.6828
20 Michigan State Big Ten 3 1 106.6455
21 South Carolina SEC 2 2 105.46
22 Duke ACC 4 1 104.2966
23 Army Ind 3 2 101.5356
24 Louisiana Tech C-USA 3 1 101.1854
25 Cincinnati American 5 0 100
26 North Texas C-USA 4 1 91.42383
27 Boise State MWC 3 1 90.97892
28 Virginia Tech ACC 3 1 82.9656
29 Ole Miss SEC 3 2 82.03209
30 Utah State MWC 4 1 80.64537
31 South Florida American 4 0 77.49447
32 Texas Tech Big 12 3 2 76.05881
33 Texas Big 12 4 1 75.98454
34 Indiana Big Ten 4 1 73.46922
35 Oklahoma State Big 12 4 1 73.366
36 Appalachian State Sun Belt 3 1 72.58952
37 Oregon Pac 12 4 1 72.04923
38 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 3 1 67.34565
39 Missouri SEC 3 1 66.78415
40 Colorado Pac 12 4 0 65.61158
41 Washington State Pac 12 4 1 61.44282
42 Wisconsin Big Ten 3 1 59.895
43 Fresno State MWC 3 1 57.55799
44 Maryland Big Ten 3 1 56.36478
45 Arizona State Pac 12 3 2 55.85513
46 Buffalo MAC 4 1 55.07938
47 Troy Sun Belt 5 1 54.67592
48 Houston American 4 1 54.47003
49 San Diego State MWC 3 1 54.378
50 USC Pac 12 3 2 53.94777
51 Mississippi State SEC 3 2 53.12915
52 Virginia ACC 3 2 52.40198
53 Boston College ACC 4 1 52.29523
54 TCU Big 12 3 2 50.86083
55 Minnesota Big Ten 3 1 50.65307
56 Texas A&M SEC 3 2 50.48881
57 Vanderbilt SEC 3 2 49.34635
58 Hawaii MWC 5 1 46.35432
59 Iowa Big Ten 3 1 42.45666
60 Arkansas State Sun Belt 3 2 42.26534
61 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 3 2 41.41133
62 MTSU C-USA 3 2 41.1626
63 California Pac 12 3 1 39.3666
64 FIU C-USA 3 2 38.67886
65 Baylor Big 12 3 2 36.70042
66 UAB C-USA 3 1 36.14635
67 Western Michigan MAC 3 2 35.66404
68 Utah Pac 12 2 2 35.06287
69 Liberty Ind 2 2 34.61428
70 Akron MAC 2 1 34.3773
71 Wake Forest ACC 3 2 33.80088
72 BYU Ind 3 3 32.79616
73 Iowa State Big 12 1 3 30.62625
74 Florida State ACC 3 2 27.80141
75 Georgia Tech ACC 3 3 26.73828
76 Toledo MAC 2 2 26.32957
77 Florida Atlantic C-USA 2 3 25.50068
78 Ohio MAC 2 2 24.96583
79 Memphis American 3 2 24.42508
80 Marshall C-USA 3 2 23.46828
81 Purdue Big Ten 2 3 23.30019
82 Tulane American 2 3 22.3021
83 Illinois Big Ten 2 2 22.0896
84 Northwestern Big Ten 1 3 22.02433
85 Temple American 2 3 21.88879
86 Eastern Michigan MAC 2 3 21.64001
87 Navy American 2 2 20.4796
88 Pittsburgh ACC 2 3 19.2005
89 Nevada MWC 3 2 19.13319
90 UNLV MWC 2 2 18.26692
91 Arizona Pac 12 2 3 18.23042
92 Tennessee SEC 2 3 18.04531
93 New Mexico MWC 2 2 16.84221
94 Southern Miss C-USA 2 2 16.57426
95 SMU American 2 3 16.50529
96 Northern Illinois MAC 2 3 15.85205
97 East Carolina American 2 2 15.60161
98 Old Dominion C-USA 1 4 14.93047
99 LA-Lafayette Sun Belt 1 3 14.86944
100 Kansas State Big 12 2 3 14.32167
101 Ball State MAC 2 3 13.60379
102 Massachusetts Ind 2 4 13.43084
103 North Carolina ACC 1 3 12.9325
104 Kansas Big 12 2 3 12.37769
105 Wyoming MWC 2 3 12.13008
106 Air Force MWC 1 3 12.0054
107 South Alabama Sun Belt 1 4 11.86135
108 Charlotte C-USA 2 3 11.16546
109 LA-Monroe Sun Belt 2 3 11.13363
110 Georgia State Sun Belt 2 4 10.79991
111 Miami-OH MAC 1 4 10.77084
112 Tulsa American 1 4 9.886478
113 Connecticut American 1 4 9.554546
114 Louisville ACC 2 4 9.316508
115 Rutgers Big Ten 1 4 9.062891
116 UCLA Pac 12 0 4 9.017271
117 Kent State MAC 1 4 8.62796
118 Oregon State Pac 12 1 4 7.803548
119 Nebraska Big Ten 0 4 7.728472
120 Western Kentucky C-USA 1 4 7.326752
121 Arkansas SEC 1 4 7.320442
122 Central Michigan MAC 1 4 6.885401
123 UTSA C-USA 2 3 6.710401
124 Rice C-USA 1 4 5.85525
125 Texas State Sun Belt 1 3 5.271486
126 Colorado State MWC 1 4 4.629481
127 Bowling Green MAC 1 4 4.398966
128 San Jose State MWC 0 4 3.495833
129 New Mexico State Ind 1 4 3.474647
130 Other Other 7 92 2.866641
131 UTEP C-USA 0 5 0.886356

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

  • SEC – LSU
  • ACC – Clemson
  • Big Ten – Ohio State
  • Big 12 – Oklahoma
  • Pac 12 – Stanford
  • AAC – Central Florida
  • C-USA – Louisiana Tech
  • Sun Belt – Appalachian State
  • MAC – Buffalo
  • MWC – Boise State

AT LARGE: Alabama, LSU, Penn State, Kentucky, Clemson, Ohio State

  • SUGAR BOWL REGION: (1) LSU v (4) Buffalo, (2) Stanford v (3) West Virginia
  • ROSE BOWL REGION: (1) Ohio State v (4) Appalachian State,  (2) Georgia v (3) Central Florida
  • FIESTA BOWL REGION: (1) Notre Dame v (4) Boise State,  (2) Alabama v (3) Penn State
  • PEACH BOWL REGION: (1) Clemson v (4) Louisiana Tech, (2) Oklahoma v (3) Kentucky

 

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