Tag: 2018

Peonage Pigskin – Week 6

Well, that was fun for LSU.  After getting to #1 last week, LSU could not sustain the momentum – losing at Florida.  Florida’s rise helped Kentucky, who lost at Texas A&M.  As such Kentucky did not fall much at all from the previous #4.  Notre Dame backed up their huge win against Stanford with a strong win at Virginia Tech.  Ian Book has seemed to change everything there.  Ohio State had to sweat more than expected against a spunky Indiana team, but pulled away late.

Now on the eye test, I find it hard not to love Alabama.  At the same time, their resume is not as good as Georgia, especially with the lack of decent road wins.  This does raise some questions about whether you can use an NCAA basketball framework when there are fewer datapoints and less near term schedule control.  I am inclined though to still stick with objective criteria.  It’s more reason for a 16 team tournament.

What would a perfect CFP look like?  For me, it takes the 10 conference champs and 6 at-larges.  The power 5 teams are the top 5 seeds, with one Group of 5 team joining them as a top 6 seed if it is higher ranked than any of the Power 5 champions (and independents subject to same criteria).  For now, we use the rankings for conference champs.  In this framework, because of Washington being ranked below Notre Dame and UCF.

(thru October 10 – so the weeknight games this week are here)

TEAM CONF W L RTG
1 Georgia SEC 6 0 445.4567
2 Alabama SEC 6 0 388.7769
3 Ohio State Big Ten 6 0 302.0601
4 Notre Dame Ind 6 0 280.2624
5 Clemson ACC 6 0 276.8497
6 Kentucky SEC 5 1 188.9309
7 Penn State Big Ten 4 1 167.0779
8 LSU SEC 5 1 164.4227
9 West Virginia Big 12 5 0 162.5482
10 Florida SEC 5 1 149.0177
11 UCF American 5 0 146.7363
12 Michigan Big Ten 5 1 133.3013
13 Oklahoma Big 12 5 1 126.2918
14 NC State ACC 5 0 124.6455
15 Cincinnati American 6 0 100
16 Texas Big 12 5 1 94.90253
17 South Carolina SEC 3 2 91.38364
18 Appalachian State Sun Belt 4 1 91.05479
19 Washington Pac 12 5 1 90.02829
20 Texas A&M SEC 4 2 89.95471
21 Duke ACC 4 1 84.67151
22 South Florida American 5 0 83.15889
23 Miami-FL ACC 5 1 78.59651
24 Colorado Pac 12 5 0 77.18483
25 Mississippi State SEC 4 2 72.38202
26 Iowa Big Ten 4 1 71.74454
27 Stanford Pac 12 4 2 70.84703
28 Army Ind 3 2 68.57295
29 Wisconsin Big Ten 4 1 68.04476
30 Washington State Pac 12 5 1 64.70651
31 Ole Miss SEC 4 2 64.13018
32 Syracuse ACC 4 2 61.17363
33 Utah Pac 12 3 2 59.69634
34 Auburn SEC 4 2 58.16709
35 Fresno State MWC 4 1 58.1013
36 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 4 1 57.6603
37 Utah State MWC 4 1 56.39559
38 San Diego State MWC 4 1 55.85583
39 Texas Tech Big 12 3 2 53.79482
40 Missouri SEC 3 2 52.35171
41 UAB C-USA 4 1 51.15842
42 TCU Big 12 3 2 48.33287
43 Virginia Tech ACC 3 2 47.87337
44 Buffalo MAC 5 1 44.67217
45 USC Pac 12 3 2 43.85405
46 Maryland Big Ten 3 2 43.46367
47 Oregon Pac 12 4 1 43.07939
48 Indiana Big Ten 4 2 42.41534
49 Houston American 4 1 41.82609
50 Boston College ACC 4 2 41.41224
51 North Texas C-USA 5 1 41.15424
52 Michigan State Big Ten 3 2 41.13761
53 Troy Sun Belt 5 1 40.89167
54 Vanderbilt SEC 3 3 40.62189
55 Boise State MWC 3 2 40.41142
56 Virginia ACC 3 2 39.46321
57 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 3 2 38.43363
58 Iowa State Big 12 2 3 36.23679
59 Arizona State Pac 12 3 3 36.18151
60 MTSU C-USA 3 2 35.71895
61 Minnesota Big Ten 3 2 35.09785
62 Oklahoma State Big 12 4 2 32.81936
63 Hawaii MWC 6 1 32.50874
64 Western Michigan MAC 4 2 32.35758
65 Baylor Big 12 4 2 31.68708
66 Louisiana Tech C-USA 3 2 29.92319
67 Northwestern Big Ten 2 3 29.92024
68 Pittsburgh ACC 3 3 28.0797
69 Florida Atlantic C-USA 3 3 26.6124
70 Illinois Big Ten 3 2 26.26167
71 BYU Ind 3 3 26.11415
72 Georgia Tech ACC 3 3 25.88869
73 FIU C-USA 3 2 25.15232
74 Wake Forest ACC 3 3 24.64846
75 Arkansas State Sun Belt 3 3 23.00435
76 Florida State ACC 3 3 22.61945
77 Toledo MAC 3 2 22.38741
78 Purdue Big Ten 2 3 21.97828
79 Marshall C-USA 3 2 21.84755
80 Temple American 3 3 21.69562
81 New Mexico MWC 3 2 21.07004
82 Ohio MAC 3 2 21.06449
83 California Pac 12 3 2 20.98606
84 Memphis American 4 2 19.54506
85 Northern Illinois MAC 3 3 19.23601
86 Arizona Pac 12 3 3 19.04622
87 Tulane American 2 4 18.57477
88 Eastern Michigan MAC 2 4 18.13255
89 LA-Lafayette Sun Belt 2 3 17.36971
90 Tennessee SEC 2 3 17.10489
91 Akron MAC 2 2 16.28208
92 Miami-OH MAC 2 4 15.54712
93 Liberty Ind 2 3 15.12098
94 Kansas State Big 12 2 4 14.62841
95 Air Force MWC 2 3 14.49969
96 Nevada MWC 3 3 13.50247
97 SMU American 2 4 11.35117
98 Southern Miss C-USA 2 2 11.28295
99 Wyoming MWC 2 4 10.95456
100 Navy American 2 3 10.56825
101 North Carolina ACC 1 3 9.922419
102 Massachusetts Ind 2 5 9.494485
103 East Carolina American 2 3 9.080067
104 Charlotte C-USA 2 3 8.965527
105 Georgia State Sun Belt 2 4 8.711854
106 UCLA Pac 12 0 5 8.67553
107 Kansas Big 12 2 4 8.361064
108 Old Dominion C-USA 1 5 8.15511
109 UNLV MWC 2 3 8.096114
110 LA-Monroe Sun Belt 2 4 8.094136
111 Louisville ACC 2 4 8.063053
112 Ball State MAC 2 4 7.983199
113 UTSA C-USA 3 3 7.746922
114 Tulsa American 1 4 7.644233
115 Nebraska Big Ten 0 5 7.050814
116 South Alabama Sun Belt 1 5 6.596887
117 New Mexico State Ind 2 4 6.572605
118 Kent State MAC 1 5 6.142388
119 Arkansas SEC 1 5 6.009176
120 Oregon State Pac 12 1 5 5.758727
121 Western Kentucky C-USA 1 4 5.725976
122 Connecticut American 1 5 5.366261
123 Colorado State MWC 2 4 5.278101
124 Rutgers Big Ten 1 5 5.087636
125 Central Michigan MAC 1 5 5.081554
126 Bowling Green MAC 1 5 3.817287
127 Texas State Sun Belt 1 4 3.129276
128 Rice C-USA 1 5 2.818722
129 Other Other 7 92 2.048774
130 San Jose State MWC 0 5 1.638707
131 UTEP C-USA 0 6 1.17302

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

  • SEC – Georgia
  • ACC – Clemson
  • Big Ten – Ohio State
  • Big 12 – West Virginia
  • Pac 12 – Washington
  • AAC – Central Florida
  • C-USA – UAB
  • Sun Belt – Appalachian State
  • MAC – Buffalo
  • MWC – Fresno State

AT LARGE: Alabama, LSU, Penn State, Kentucky, Clemson, Ohio State

  • PEACH BOWL: (1) Georgia v (4) Buffalo, (2) Washington v (3) Penn State
  • ROSE BOWL: (1) Ohio State v (4) UAB, (2) Alabama v (3) Florida
  • FIESTA BOWL: (1) Notre Dame v (4) Fresno State, (2) Central Florida v (3) Kentucky
  • SUGAR BOWL: (1) Clemson v (4) Appalachian State, (2) West Virginia v (3) LSU

BUBBLE:

  • Last 2 teams in: LSU, Florida
  • First 2 teams out: Michigan, Oklahoma
  • Next 2 teams out: NC State, Cincinnati
  • Two more: Texas, South Carolina

 

Advertisements

Peonage Pigskin – Week 5

Each week, we learn a little more – and the model shows.  After last week where the average SE was 13x the average rating, now it has gone down almost 50%.  The average rating is 77, but the average STANDARD ERROR is 575.  So these standings are noisy, but better.  This year, we’re using a Bradley-Terry model, which is outlined here (I tweaked it to use fractional wins to account for scoring margin)  The nice thing here is that the model – unlike the RPI – determines strength of schedule from the results, instead of having it imposed.  Now it’s limited by being backwards looking – but it has the advantage of assuming every team starts 0-0.  The model knows exactly as much about the teams as the teams’ games have reflected.

And now, a couple of big games with titans suddenly made some big changes.  Notre Dame’s rout of Stanford and Ohio State’s gallant comeback at Penn State result in big jumps.  Louisville’s terrible-ness has held Alabama’s schedule back – they certainly don’t have a #1 resume.  Of course Duke and Buffalo took thumps after their great non-league starts.

What would a perfect CFP look like?  For me, it takes the 10 conference champs and 6 at-larges.  The power 5 teams are the top 5 seeds, with one Group of 5 team joining them as a top 6 seed if it is higher ranked than any of the Power 5 champions.  For now, we use the rankings for conference champs.

(thru October 5 – so the weeknight games this week are here)

TEAM CONF W L RTG
1 LSU SEC 5 0 481.3462
2 Georgia SEC 5 0 481.0523
3 Alabama SEC 5 0 393.9854
4 Kentucky SEC 5 0 354.6355
5 Ohio State Big Ten 5 0 270.8414
6 Notre Dame Ind 5 0 270.8285
7 Clemson ACC 5 0 259.6178
8 Oklahoma Big 12 5 0 231.4038
9 West Virginia Big 12 4 0 210.2996
10 Stanford Pac 12 4 1 156.5947
11 Penn State Big Ten 4 1 144.9457
12 NC State ACC 4 0 139.0089
13 Syracuse ACC 4 1 136.9626
14 UCF American 4 0 134.1175
15 Miami-FL ACC 4 1 133.214
16 Auburn SEC 4 1 133.0122
17 Florida SEC 4 1 114.2288
18 Washington Pac 12 4 1 113.9248
19 Michigan Big Ten 4 1 108.6828
20 Michigan State Big Ten 3 1 106.6455
21 South Carolina SEC 2 2 105.46
22 Duke ACC 4 1 104.2966
23 Army Ind 3 2 101.5356
24 Louisiana Tech C-USA 3 1 101.1854
25 Cincinnati American 5 0 100
26 North Texas C-USA 4 1 91.42383
27 Boise State MWC 3 1 90.97892
28 Virginia Tech ACC 3 1 82.9656
29 Ole Miss SEC 3 2 82.03209
30 Utah State MWC 4 1 80.64537
31 South Florida American 4 0 77.49447
32 Texas Tech Big 12 3 2 76.05881
33 Texas Big 12 4 1 75.98454
34 Indiana Big Ten 4 1 73.46922
35 Oklahoma State Big 12 4 1 73.366
36 Appalachian State Sun Belt 3 1 72.58952
37 Oregon Pac 12 4 1 72.04923
38 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 3 1 67.34565
39 Missouri SEC 3 1 66.78415
40 Colorado Pac 12 4 0 65.61158
41 Washington State Pac 12 4 1 61.44282
42 Wisconsin Big Ten 3 1 59.895
43 Fresno State MWC 3 1 57.55799
44 Maryland Big Ten 3 1 56.36478
45 Arizona State Pac 12 3 2 55.85513
46 Buffalo MAC 4 1 55.07938
47 Troy Sun Belt 5 1 54.67592
48 Houston American 4 1 54.47003
49 San Diego State MWC 3 1 54.378
50 USC Pac 12 3 2 53.94777
51 Mississippi State SEC 3 2 53.12915
52 Virginia ACC 3 2 52.40198
53 Boston College ACC 4 1 52.29523
54 TCU Big 12 3 2 50.86083
55 Minnesota Big Ten 3 1 50.65307
56 Texas A&M SEC 3 2 50.48881
57 Vanderbilt SEC 3 2 49.34635
58 Hawaii MWC 5 1 46.35432
59 Iowa Big Ten 3 1 42.45666
60 Arkansas State Sun Belt 3 2 42.26534
61 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 3 2 41.41133
62 MTSU C-USA 3 2 41.1626
63 California Pac 12 3 1 39.3666
64 FIU C-USA 3 2 38.67886
65 Baylor Big 12 3 2 36.70042
66 UAB C-USA 3 1 36.14635
67 Western Michigan MAC 3 2 35.66404
68 Utah Pac 12 2 2 35.06287
69 Liberty Ind 2 2 34.61428
70 Akron MAC 2 1 34.3773
71 Wake Forest ACC 3 2 33.80088
72 BYU Ind 3 3 32.79616
73 Iowa State Big 12 1 3 30.62625
74 Florida State ACC 3 2 27.80141
75 Georgia Tech ACC 3 3 26.73828
76 Toledo MAC 2 2 26.32957
77 Florida Atlantic C-USA 2 3 25.50068
78 Ohio MAC 2 2 24.96583
79 Memphis American 3 2 24.42508
80 Marshall C-USA 3 2 23.46828
81 Purdue Big Ten 2 3 23.30019
82 Tulane American 2 3 22.3021
83 Illinois Big Ten 2 2 22.0896
84 Northwestern Big Ten 1 3 22.02433
85 Temple American 2 3 21.88879
86 Eastern Michigan MAC 2 3 21.64001
87 Navy American 2 2 20.4796
88 Pittsburgh ACC 2 3 19.2005
89 Nevada MWC 3 2 19.13319
90 UNLV MWC 2 2 18.26692
91 Arizona Pac 12 2 3 18.23042
92 Tennessee SEC 2 3 18.04531
93 New Mexico MWC 2 2 16.84221
94 Southern Miss C-USA 2 2 16.57426
95 SMU American 2 3 16.50529
96 Northern Illinois MAC 2 3 15.85205
97 East Carolina American 2 2 15.60161
98 Old Dominion C-USA 1 4 14.93047
99 LA-Lafayette Sun Belt 1 3 14.86944
100 Kansas State Big 12 2 3 14.32167
101 Ball State MAC 2 3 13.60379
102 Massachusetts Ind 2 4 13.43084
103 North Carolina ACC 1 3 12.9325
104 Kansas Big 12 2 3 12.37769
105 Wyoming MWC 2 3 12.13008
106 Air Force MWC 1 3 12.0054
107 South Alabama Sun Belt 1 4 11.86135
108 Charlotte C-USA 2 3 11.16546
109 LA-Monroe Sun Belt 2 3 11.13363
110 Georgia State Sun Belt 2 4 10.79991
111 Miami-OH MAC 1 4 10.77084
112 Tulsa American 1 4 9.886478
113 Connecticut American 1 4 9.554546
114 Louisville ACC 2 4 9.316508
115 Rutgers Big Ten 1 4 9.062891
116 UCLA Pac 12 0 4 9.017271
117 Kent State MAC 1 4 8.62796
118 Oregon State Pac 12 1 4 7.803548
119 Nebraska Big Ten 0 4 7.728472
120 Western Kentucky C-USA 1 4 7.326752
121 Arkansas SEC 1 4 7.320442
122 Central Michigan MAC 1 4 6.885401
123 UTSA C-USA 2 3 6.710401
124 Rice C-USA 1 4 5.85525
125 Texas State Sun Belt 1 3 5.271486
126 Colorado State MWC 1 4 4.629481
127 Bowling Green MAC 1 4 4.398966
128 San Jose State MWC 0 4 3.495833
129 New Mexico State Ind 1 4 3.474647
130 Other Other 7 92 2.866641
131 UTEP C-USA 0 5 0.886356

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

  • SEC – LSU
  • ACC – Clemson
  • Big Ten – Ohio State
  • Big 12 – Oklahoma
  • Pac 12 – Stanford
  • AAC – Central Florida
  • C-USA – Louisiana Tech
  • Sun Belt – Appalachian State
  • MAC – Buffalo
  • MWC – Boise State

AT LARGE: Alabama, LSU, Penn State, Kentucky, Clemson, Ohio State

  • SUGAR BOWL REGION: (1) LSU v (4) Buffalo, (2) Stanford v (3) West Virginia
  • ROSE BOWL REGION: (1) Ohio State v (4) Appalachian State,  (2) Georgia v (3) Central Florida
  • FIESTA BOWL REGION: (1) Notre Dame v (4) Boise State,  (2) Alabama v (3) Penn State
  • PEACH BOWL REGION: (1) Clemson v (4) Louisiana Tech, (2) Oklahoma v (3) Kentucky

 

Peonage Pigskin – Week 4

Each week, we learn a little more – and the model shows.  After last week where the average SE was 13x the average rating, now it has gone down almost 50%.  The average rating is 77, but the average STANDARD ERROR is 649.  So these standings are noisy, but better.  This year, we’re using a Bradley-Terry model, which is outlined here (I tweaked it to use fractional wins to account for scoring margin)  The nice thing here is that the model – unlike the RPI – determines strength of schedule from the results, instead of having it imposed.  Now it’s limited by being backwards looking – but it has the advantage of assuming every team starts 0-0.  The model knows exactly as much about the teams as the teams’ games have reflected.

Really the standings show the teams who deserve hat tips for excellent starts.  If you didn’t have a preseason ranking and only knew the teams from the field – North Texas and Buffalo’s lofty rankings would actually look pretty legitimate.  As we dive into conference play though, things will be harder to continue.  The non-power conference teams will start to run out of ways to keep that rating up, while the opposite is true for Power teams.  Put simply, Ohio State will start to move up – possibly as soon as this week with its first true road game.

The ratings can be interpreted as victory odds.  So Alabama, based on the games and scoring margins to date – is likely to beat Indiana 2/3 of the time on a neutral field.

What would a perfect CFP look like?  For me, it takes the 10 conference champs and 6 at-larges.  The power 5 teams are the top 5 seeds, with one Group of 5 team joining them as a top 6 seed if it is higher ranked than any of the Power 5 champions.  For now, we use the rankings for conference champs.

(thru September 28 – so the weeknight games this week are here)

TEAM CONF W L RTG
1 Georgia SEC 4 0 660.6688
2 Alabama SEC 4 0 633.7399
3 LSU SEC 4 0 420.1625
4 Duke ACC 4 0 359.0451
5 Penn State Big Ten 4 0 293.0829
6 Kentucky SEC 4 0 287.6833
7 Clemson ACC 4 0 239.7653
8 Stanford Pac 12 4 0 233.2504
9 Oklahoma Big 12 4 0 218.9313
10 North Texas C-USA 4 0 202.5375
11 Buffalo MAC 4 0 189.5459
12 Ohio State Big Ten 4 0 180.5093
13 Syracuse ACC 4 0 175.8746
14 California Pac 12 3 0 169.2289
15 Notre Dame Ind 4 0 168.7941
16 Miami-FL ACC 4 1 167.0898
17 South Carolina SEC 2 1 166.2085
18 UCF American 3 0 149.7361
19 Ole Miss SEC 3 1 145.237
20 NC State ACC 3 0 141.0831
21 Texas Tech Big 12 3 1 131.0026
22 Auburn SEC 3 1 128.7719
23 BYU Ind 3 1 126.1002
24 Michigan State Big Ten 2 1 125.4917
25 West Virginia Big 12 3 0 120.2589
26 Wisconsin Big Ten 3 1 109.7262
27 Mississippi State SEC 3 1 106.2756
28 Washington Pac 12 3 1 104.0794
29 Appalachian State Sun Belt 2 1 102.032
30 Michigan Big Ten 3 1 100.1412
31 Cincinnati American 4 0 100
32 Colorado Pac 12 4 0 90.26881
33 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 3 1 86.89222
34 Indiana Big Ten 3 1 86.71487
35 Army Ind 2 2 86.45454
36 Virginia ACC 3 1 85.66712
37 Boise State MWC 2 1 85.53121
38 South Florida American 4 0 83.99939
39 Houston American 3 1 83.87512
40 Missouri SEC 3 1 83.8103
41 Arkansas State Sun Belt 3 1 80.67368
42 Texas Big 12 3 1 78.59519
43 San Diego State MWC 3 1 78.51951
44 Florida SEC 3 1 74.39499
45 Baylor Big 12 3 1 73.01797
46 Washington State Pac 12 3 1 72.4721
47 Maryland Big Ten 3 1 69.3991
48 Oklahoma State Big 12 3 1 68.55153
49 Arizona State Pac 12 2 2 63.25742
50 Louisiana Tech C-USA 2 1 62.83179
51 Utah State MWC 3 1 61.98127
52 Texas A&M SEC 2 2 61.90032
53 Hawaii MWC 4 1 61.64345
54 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 2 1 59.90282
55 Eastern Michigan MAC 2 2 58.86508
56 Minnesota Big Ten 3 1 58.28396
57 USC Pac 12 2 2 57.22129
58 Boston College ACC 3 1 54.69548
59 Vanderbilt SEC 2 2 53.64126
60 Fresno State MWC 2 1 52.28496
61 Akron MAC 2 1 51.24693
62 Iowa Big Ten 3 1 49.83405
63 TCU Big 12 2 2 49.46578
64 Troy Sun Belt 3 1 49.03898
65 FIU C-USA 2 2 46.86839
66 Oregon Pac 12 3 1 44.12704
67 New Mexico MWC 2 1 43.43097
68 Temple American 2 2 42.09517
69 Marshall C-USA 2 1 41.50229
70 Iowa State Big 12 1 2 41.08278
71 Toledo MAC 2 1 40.35052
72 UAB C-USA 2 1 40.16297
73 Arizona Pac 12 2 2 40.15094
74 Florida Atlantic C-USA 2 2 38.95013
75 Virginia Tech ACC 2 1 38.6156
76 Utah Pac 12 2 1 37.19878
77 Western Michigan MAC 2 2 35.504
78 Northwestern Big Ten 1 2 33.18816
79 Illinois Big Ten 2 2 32.56492
80 Wake Forest ACC 2 2 30.47676
81 Liberty Ind 1 2 29.7661
82 Louisville ACC 2 2 28.82846
83 Memphis American 3 2 27.71375
84 UNLV MWC 2 2 26.15418
85 LA-Lafayette Sun Belt 1 2 24.94671
86 Air Force MWC 1 2 24.79062
87 Pittsburgh ACC 2 2 24.73787
88 Navy American 2 2 24.58418
89 Purdue Big Ten 1 3 24.48725
90 MTSU C-USA 1 2 24.21865
91 Southern Miss C-USA 2 1 23.96121
92 Ohio MAC 1 2 23.43604
93 Tulane American 2 3 23.38714
94 LA-Monroe Sun Belt 2 2 21.98554
95 Kansas Big 12 2 2 21.93367
96 Kent State MAC 1 3 21.82423
97 Massachusetts Ind 2 3 21.67998
98 Kansas State Big 12 2 2 20.39438
99 Wyoming MWC 2 2 19.33606
100 Georgia Tech ACC 1 3 19.26321
101 Nevada MWC 2 2 19.25569
102 Old Dominion C-USA 1 3 17.9149
103 Florida State ACC 2 2 17.61
104 Charlotte C-USA 2 2 17.54844
105 North Carolina ACC 1 3 17.23679
106 Tennessee SEC 2 2 16.83127
107 Tulsa American 1 3 16.58694
108 SMU American 1 3 16.23462
109 Rutgers Big Ten 1 3 15.75488
110 Miami-OH MAC 1 3 15.67183
111 East Carolina American 1 2 14.5641
112 Connecticut American 1 3 14.54446
113 South Alabama Sun Belt 1 3 14.4026
114 Western Kentucky C-USA 1 3 13.638
115 Nebraska Big Ten 0 3 13.44066
116 Oregon State Pac 12 1 3 12.23398
117 Ball State MAC 1 3 11.67624
118 Arkansas SEC 1 3 10.24532
119 UTSA C-USA 1 3 10.07431
120 Rice C-USA 1 3 9.697127
121 Northern Illinois MAC 1 3 9.500462
122 UCLA Pac 12 0 4 9.309858
123 Texas State Sun Belt 1 3 8.16726
124 Georgia State Sun Belt 1 3 7.819892
125 Central Michigan MAC 1 3 7.585301
126 Bowling Green MAC 1 3 6.115704
127 Colorado State MWC 1 4 5.7116
128 New Mexico State Ind 1 4 5.223786
129 Other Other 7 89 4.393489
130 San Jose State MWC 0 3 3.372388
131 UTEP C-USA 0 4 1.121426

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

  • SEC – Georgia
  • ACC – Duke
  • Big Ten – Penn State
  • Big 12 – Oklahoma
  • Pac 12 – Stanford
  • AAC – Central Florida
  • C-USA – North Texas
  • Sun Belt – Appalachian State
  • MAC – Buffalo
  • MWC – Boise State

AT LARGE: Alabama, LSU, Penn State, Kentucky, Clemson, Ohio State

  • PEACH BOWL REGION: (1) Georgia v (4) Boise State, (2) Oklahoma v (3) Clemson
  • SUGAR BOWL REGION: (1) Duke v (4) Appalachian State, (2) LSU v (3) North Texas
  • ROSE BOWL REGION: (1) Penn State v (4) Central Florida, (2) Alabama v (3) Buffalo
  • FIESTA BOWL REGION: (1) Stanford v (4) Syracuse, (2) Kentucky v (3) Ohio State

 

Peonage Pigskin – The First 3 Weeks

Well, we took 3 weeks for me to actually have time to write something.  Part of it is time, and part of it was the model not converging.  But here we are, with a first ranking.  Obviously there is a lot of noise.  The average rating is 62, but the average STANDARD ERROR is 831.  So there is a ton of noise, and you expect that to go down as the season progresses.  This year, we’re using a Bradley-Terry model, which is outlined here (I tweaked it to use fractional wins to account for scoring margin)  The nice thing here is that the model – unlike the RPI – determines strength of schedule from the results, instead of having it imposed.  Now it’s limited by being backwards looking – but it has the advantage of assuming every team starts 0-0.  The model knows exactly as much about the teams as the teams’ games have reflected.  Alabama looks like the best team to me – but Duke has won 3 games decisively against FBS opponents including 2 true road wins.  With so little data now – that counts for a lot.

The ratings can be interpreted as victory odds.  So Alabama, based on the games and scoring margins to date – is likely to beat Indiana 2/3 of the time on a neutral field.

TEAM CONF W L RTG
1 Alabama SEC 3 0 391.8272
2 Duke ACC 3 0 314.6662
3 LSU SEC 3 0 236.4302
4 Penn State Big Ten 3 0 230.8822
5 Georgia SEC 3 0 229.7978
6 Indiana Big Ten 3 0 195.9335
7 Oklahoma State Big 12 3 0 185.7086
8 Ohio State Big Ten 3 0 179.811
9 Clemson ACC 3 0 178.9146
10 Mississippi State SEC 3 0 165.3629
11 Boston College ACC 3 0 157.1893
12 Oklahoma Big 12 3 0 153.0116
13 Kentucky SEC 3 0 128.3059
14 Notre Dame Ind 3 0 128.1531
15 Stanford Pac 12 3 0 123.9128
16 California Pac 12 3 0 120.0303
17 Washington State Pac 12 3 0 117.1462
18 Syracuse ACC 3 0 116.8423
19 Buffalo MAC 3 0 113.3421
20 North Texas C-USA 3 0 111.0716
21 West Virginia Big 12 2 0 107.7263
22 Virginia Tech ACC 2 0 103.9993
23 Army Ind 2 1 102.8839
24 UCF American 2 0 102.0586
25 South Florida American 3 0 101.9718
26 Minnesota Big Ten 3 0 100.5921
27 Cincinnati American 3 0 100
28 Akron MAC 2 0 99.36283
29 Boise State MWC 2 1 98.7169
30 Appalachian State Sun Belt 1 1 96.12706
31 Colorado Pac 12 3 0 92.26737
32 Vanderbilt SEC 2 1 91.24281
33 Louisiana Tech C-USA 2 0 88.6083
34 Auburn SEC 2 1 85.35776
35 Hawaii MWC 3 1 82.03129
36 Virginia ACC 2 1 79.87612
37 Missouri SEC 3 0 78.39522
38 Iowa Big Ten 3 0 77.52482
39 Ole Miss SEC 2 1 75.57031
40 BYU Ind 2 1 72.91397
41 Miami-FL ACC 2 1 72.40541
42 Washington Pac 12 2 1 71.8749
43 Arkansas State Sun Belt 2 1 68.7669
44 Michigan Big Ten 2 1 64.5022
45 Texas A&M SEC 2 1 62.87321
46 Fresno State MWC 2 1 62.74266
47 Marshall C-USA 2 0 61.52169
48 Oregon Pac 12 3 0 60.46253
49 TCU Big 12 2 1 57.07969
50 NC State ACC 2 0 55.79934
51 South Carolina SEC 1 1 54.04228
52 FIU C-USA 2 1 52.72031
53 Houston American 2 1 52.41703
54 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 2 1 50.18161
55 Baylor Big 12 2 1 49.28424
56 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 2 1 49.27636
57 Wake Forest ACC 2 1 49.25461
58 San Diego State MWC 2 1 48.97516
59 Eastern Michigan MAC 2 1 47.52213
60 Texas Tech Big 12 2 1 46.76711
61 Memphis American 2 1 46.16184
62 Florida Atlantic C-USA 2 1 46.06605
63 Wisconsin Big Ten 2 1 44.83163
64 Arizona State Pac 12 2 1 44.45318
65 Illinois Big Ten 2 1 43.53292
66 Michigan State Big Ten 1 1 43.18781
67 Navy American 2 1 42.39639
68 Texas Big 12 2 1 40.41018
69 Florida SEC 2 1 38.90917
70 Pittsburgh ACC 2 1 37.5394
71 Liberty Ind 1 1 36.66896
72 Maryland Big Ten 2 1 36.22492
73 Nevada MWC 2 1 35.59293
74 Utah Pac 12 2 1 34.82491
75 LA-Lafayette Sun Belt 1 1 34.52911
76 Ball State MAC 1 2 34.04602
77 Troy Sun Belt 2 1 32.78711
78 Utah State MWC 2 1 32.70955
79 LA-Monroe Sun Belt 2 1 31.47361
80 Air Force MWC 1 1 31.144
81 Northwestern Big Ten 1 2 30.94003
82 UAB C-USA 2 1 30.46617
83 USC Pac 12 1 2 29.91048
84 New Mexico MWC 2 1 29.84983
85 Tennessee SEC 2 1 28.08627
86 Louisville ACC 2 1 27.68249
87 Georgia Tech ACC 1 2 26.9026
88 South Alabama Sun Belt 1 2 26.47747
89 Kansas Big 12 2 1 26.32415
90 Kent State MAC 1 2 26.09076
91 Oregon State Pac 12 1 2 26.01972
92 MTSU C-USA 1 2 25.28967
93 Temple American 1 2 24.2328
94 Kansas State Big 12 2 1 22.96751
95 Rutgers Big Ten 1 2 22.25256
96 UNLV MWC 2 1 22.24587
97 Iowa State Big 12 0 2 21.75959
98 Charlotte C-USA 2 1 21.54634
99 Southern Miss C-USA 1 1 19.90826
100 Ohio MAC 1 1 19.62662
101 Toledo MAC 1 1 18.9247
102 Western Michigan MAC 1 2 18.91171
103 Wyoming MWC 2 2 18.89691
104 Arizona Pac 12 1 2 18.46037
105 Tulsa American 1 2 16.72408
106 Tulane American 1 2 16.59541
107 Florida State ACC 1 2 16.08489
108 Massachusetts Ind 1 3 16.05062
109 Colorado State MWC 1 3 14.99661
110 Connecticut American 1 2 14.21074
111 Arkansas SEC 1 2 13.89574
112 Texas State Sun Belt 1 2 12.92468
113 Nebraska Big Ten 0 2 12.63181
114 Georgia State Sun Belt 1 2 12.56469
115 Northern Illinois MAC 1 2 12.38911
116 Purdue Big Ten 0 3 11.63376
117 Rice C-USA 1 2 11.44312
118 North Carolina ACC 0 2 10.97318
119 East Carolina American 1 1 10.9426
120 Miami-OH MAC 0 3 10.63982
121 UCLA Pac 12 0 3 10.36811
122 Old Dominion C-USA 0 3 10.25546
123 Bowling Green MAC 1 2 9.598835
124 SMU American 0 3 8.998186
125 UTSA C-USA 0 3 6.467489
126 Central Michigan MAC 0 3 6.109851
127 Western Kentucky C-USA 0 3 4.645834
128 Other Other 6 83 4.387402
129 San Jose State MWC 0 3 3.487306
130 New Mexico State Ind 0 4 3.35678
131 UTEP C-USA 0 3 1.751285

What would a perfect CFP look like?  For me, it takes the 10 conference champs and 6 at-larges.  The power 5 teams are the top 5 seeds, with one Group of 5 team joining them as a top 6 seed if it is higher ranked than any of the Power 5 champions.  For now, we use the rankings for conference champs.

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

  • SEC – Alabama
  • ACC – Duke
  • Big Ten – Penn State
  • Big 12 – Oklahoma State
  • Pac 12 – Stanford
  • AAC – Central Florida
  • C-USA – North Texas
  • Sun Belt – Appalachian State
  • MAC – Buffalo
  • MWC – Boise State

AT LARGE: LSU, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio State, Clemson, Mississippi State

  • SUGAR BOWL REGION: (1) Alabama v (4) Appalachian State, (2) Indiana v (3) Clemson
  • PEACH BOWL REGION: (1) Duke v (4) Boise State, (2) Georgia v (3) Ohio State
  • ROSE BOWL REGION: (1) Penn State v (4) Central Florida, (2) LSU v (3) Buffalo
  • FIESTA BOWL REGION: (1) Oklahoma State v (4) North Texas, (2) Stanford v (3) Mississippi State