Tag: basketball

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru February 16)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Southern/Hampton
  • (8) Seton Hall v (9) USC
  • (4) Purdue v (13) San Diego State
  • (5) Duke v (12) Wichita State
  • (2) Dayton v (15) Stephen F Austin
  • (7) Michigan v (10) Wisconsin
  • (3) Iowa v (14) UAB
  • (6) Kentucky v (11) Oregon State

REGION B:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) North Florida/Wagner
  • (8) California v (9) Pittsburgh
  • (4) Arizona v (13) Akron
  • (5) Baylor v (12) Monmouth
  • (2) Miami-FL v (15) Belmont
  • (7) Colorado v (10) Hawaii
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) South Dakota State
  • (6) Providence v (11) Cincinnati/George Washington

REGION C:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Navy
  • (8) Butler v (9) Texas Tech
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) Valparaiso
  • (5) Utah v (12) Gonzaga
  • (2) Maryland v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Texas A&M v (10) Connecticut
  • (3) West Virginia v (14) Yale
  • (6) Notre Dame v (11) Florida State/Alabama

REGION D:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Indiana v (9) Syracuse
  • (4) Oregon v (13) Stony Brook
  • (5) Texas v (12) Chattanooga
  • (2) Virginia v (15) Winthrop
  • (7) South Carolina v (10) Florida
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) NC-Wilmington
  • (6) Saint Joseph’s v (11) Arkansas-Little Rock

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Syracuse, Florida, Wisconsin, Oregon State

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Cincinnati, Florida State, Alabama, George Washington

FIRST FOUR OUT: Kansas State, Creighton, VCU, Temple

NEXT FOUR OUT: Saint Bonaventure, Washington, Stanford, LSU

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru February 14)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Southern/Hampton
  • (8) USC v (9) Butler
  • (4) Duke v (13) Wichita State
  • (5) South Carolina v (12) Monmouth
  • (2) Dayton v (15) Stephen F Austin
  • (7) Texas v (10) Oregon State
  • (3) Miami-FL v (14) UAB
  • (6) Baylor v (11) Florida

REGION B:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Navy/Wagner
  • (8) California v (9) Texas Tech
  • (4) Arizona v (13) Valparaiso
  • (5) Purdue v (12) San Diego State
  • (2) Iowa v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Michigan v (10) Wisconsin
  • (3) Virginia v (14) South Dakota State
  • (6) Kentucky v (11) Cincinnati/Creighton

REGION C:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) North Florida
  • (8) Seton Hall v (9) Syracuse
  • (4) Oregon v (13) Akron
  • (5) Utah v (12) Gonzaga
  • (2) Maryland v (15) Belmont
  • (7) Colorado v (10) Hawaii
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) Yale
  • (6) Notre Dame v (11) Florida State/Alabama

REGION D:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Texas A&M v (9) Pittsburgh
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) Stony Brook
  • (5) Saint Joseph’s v (12) Chattanooga
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) Winthrop
  • (7) Indiana v (10) Connecticut
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) UNC-Wilmington
  • (6) Providence v (11) Arkansas-Little Rock

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Oregon State, Florida

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Cincinnati, Florida State, Alabama, Creighton

FIRST FOUR OUT: George Washington, Temple, Saint Bonaventure, Kansas State

NEXT FOUR OUT: Washington, VCU, Stanford, Saint Mary’s

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru February 7)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Southern/Wagner
  • (8) Florida State v (9) Arkansas-Little Rock
  • (4) South Carolina v (13) Monmouth
  • (5) Purdue v (12) Hawaii
  • (2) Virginia v (15) Belmont
  • (7) Saint Joseph’s v (10) Connecticut
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) Hofstra
  • (6) Seton Hall v (11) Syracuse

REGION B:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Navy/Hampton
  • (8) Kentucky v (9) George Washington
  • (4) Texas A&M v (13) Valparaiso
  • (5) USC v (12) Wichita State
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  • (7) Pittsburgh v (10) Florida
  • (3) Dayton v (14) Yale
  • (6) Utah v (11) California/Washington

REGION C:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Winthrop
  • (8) Notre Dame v (9) Indiana
  • (4) Miami-FL v (13) Akron
  • (5) Providence v (12) San Diego State
  • (2) Kansas v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Duke v (10) Butler
  • (3) Oregon v (14) UAB
  • (6) Arizona v (11) Oregon State/VCU

REGION D:

  • (1) Iowa v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Colorado v (9) Kansas State
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) South Dakota State
  • (5) Baylor v (12) Cincinnati
  • (2) Maryland v (15) North Florida
  • (7) Michigan v (10) Chattanooga
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Texas v (11) Saint Mary’s

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Butler, Florida, Connecticut, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: California, Oregon State, VCU, Washington

FIRST FOUR OUT: Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Georgia

NEXT FOUR OUT: Clemson, Vanderbilt, Stanford, UCLA

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru January 31)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Southern/Hampton
  • (8) Duke v (9) Seton Hall
  • (4) Providence v (13) Hawaii
  • (5) South Carolina v (12) Valparaiso
  • (2) Iowa State v (15) Yale
  • (7) USC v (10) Florida State
  • (3) Texas A&M v (14) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  • (6) Saint Joseph’s v (11) Chattanooga

REGION B:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Navy/Wagner
  • (8) Indiana v (9) Cincinnati
  • (4) West Virginia v (13) Monmouth
  • (5) Purdue v (12) San Diego State
  • (2) Kansas v (15) North Florida
  • (7) Pittsburgh v (10) VCU
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) UAB
  • (6) Colorado v (11) Kansas State

REGION C:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Kentucky v (9) Arkansas-Little Rock
  • (4) Oregon v (13) Akron
  • (5) Utah v (12) Washington/Connecticut
  • (2) Maryland v (15) Belmont
  • (7) Texas v (10) Florida
  • (3) Dayton v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Michigan v (11) Texas Tech

REGION D:

  • (1) North Carolina v (16) Winthrop
  • (8) Saint Mary’s v (9) Notre Dame
  • (4) Baylor v (13) Hofstra
  • (5) Miami-FL v (12) California/George Washington
  • (2) Iowa v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Arizona v (10) Wichita State
  • (3) Virginia v (14) South Dakota State
  • (6) Louisville v (11) Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Florida State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: California, Washington, Connecticut, George Washington

FIRST FOUR OUT: Gonzaga, Stanford, Butler, Marquette

NEXT FOUR OUT: UCLA, Wisconsin, Clemson, Oregon State

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru January 25)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Hampton/Texas Southern
  • (8) Hawaii v (9) Texas Tech
  • (4) Baylor v (13) San Diego State
  • (5) Oregon v (12) Valparaiso
  • (2) Kansas v (15) Belmont
  • (7) Indiana v (10) Kansas State
  • (3) West Virginia v (14) Princeton
  • (6) Michigan v (11) Stanford

REGION B:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Weber State/Mount Saint Mary’s
  • (8) Kentucky v (9) Notre Dame
  • (4) Virginia v (13) Monmouth
  • (5) Louisville v (12) VCU
  • (2) Texas A&M v (15) North Florida
  • (7) Saint Joseph’s v (10) George Washington
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Utah  v (11) Cincinnati/Oregon State

REGION C:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) New Mexico State
  • (8) USC v (9) Duke
  • (4) Miami-FL v (13) UAB
  • (5) Purdue v (12) Wichita State
  • (2) Iowa State v (15) Omaha
  • (7) Saint Mary’s v (10) Arkansas-Little Rock
  • (3) Providence v (14) Northern Illinois
  • (6) Arizona v (11) Seton Hall/Butler

REGION D:

  • (1) Iowa v (16) NC-Asheville
  • (8) Texas v (9) California
  • (4) Maryland v (13) James Madison
  • (5) South Carolina v (12) Connecticut
  • (2) North Carolina v (15) Navy
  • (7) Colorado v (10) Florida
  • (3) Dayton v (14) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  • (6) Pittsburgh v (11) Chattanooga

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Florida, George Washington, Kansas State, Stanford

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Butler, Oregon State

FIRST FOUR OUT: Florida State, Washington, Gonzaga, Creighton

NEXT FOUR OUT: UCLA, Boise State, Tulsa, Georgia

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru January 17)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Hampton/Texas Southern
  • (8) Indiana v (9) Texas
  • (4) Purdue v (13) San Diego State
  • (5) Baylor v (12) VCU
  • (2) Michigan State v (15) Princeton
  • (7) Louisville v (10) Florida State
  • (3) Texas A&M v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Arkansas-Little Rock v (11) Florida

REGION B:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Cal State Bakersfield/Mount Saint Mary’s
  • (8) Hawaii v (9) Butler
  • (4) USC v (13) Memphis
  • (5) Virginia v (12) Chattanooga
  • (2) Iowa v (15) Belmont
  • (7) Michigan v (10) Valparaiso
  • (3) South Carolina v (14) Northern Illinois
  • (6) Colorado v (11) Kansas State

REGION C:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Texas Tech v (9) Seton Hall
  • (4) Pittsburgh v (13) UAB
  • (5) Arizona v (12) Wichita State
  • (2) North Carolina v (15) North Florida
  • (7) Saint Joseph’s v (10) Saint Mary’s
  • (3) Maryland v (14) IPFW
  • (6) Oregon v (11) Stanford/Oregon State

REGION D:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) Navy
  • (8) Utah v (9) Notre Dame
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  • (5) Providence v (12) Monmouth
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) NC-Asheville
  • (7) Duke v (10) Kentucky
  • (3) Dayton v (14) James Madison
  • (6) Miami-FL v (11) George Washington/Gonzaga

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Kentucky, Florida State, Florida, Kansas State

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Stanford, George Washington, Gonzaga, Oregon State

FIRST FOUR OUT: Alabama, Northwestern, Cincinnati, Evansville

NEXT FOUR OUT: Washington, UCLA, Connecticut, California

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru January 10)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) Jackson State/Hampton
  • (8) Butler v (9) Gonzaga
  • (4) Iowa v (13) VCU
  • (5) Texas A&M v (12) Wichita State
  • (2) Miami-FL v (15) North Florida
  • (7) Kentucky v (10) George Washington
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) Belmont
  • (6) Oregon v (11) Saint Mary’s/Georgia Tech

REGION B:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Bucknell/Houston Baptist
  • (8) Louisville v (9) Indiana
  • (4) Texas Tech v (13) UAB
  • (5) Virginia v (12) Houston
  • (2) Maryland v (15) Iona
  • (7) Utah v (10) Ole Miss
  • (3) Pitt v (14) High Point
  • (6) Dayton v (11) UCLA/Florida

REGION C:

  • (1) Michigan State v (16) Wagner
  • (8) Saint Joe’s v (9) Michigan
  • (4) Duke v (13) William and Mary
  • (5) USC v (12) Washington
  • (2) Villanova v (15) Cal State-Bakersfield
  • (7) Baylor v (10) Northwestern
  • (3) West Virginia v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Arkansas-Little Rock v (11) Valparaiso

REGION D:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Hawaii v (9) Colorado
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) IPFW
  • (5) Purdue v (12) Boise State
  • (2) South Carolina v (15) East Tennessee State
  • (7) Oregon State v (10) Texas-Arlington
  • (3) Providence v (14) Princeton
  • (6) Arizona v (11) Akron

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Texas-Arlington, Northwestern, Ole Miss, George Washington

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Saint Mary’s, UCLA, Florida, Georgia Tech

FIRST FOUR OUT: California, Cincinnati, Texas, Seton Hall

NEXT FOUR OUT: Connecticut, Wake Forest, Monmouth, Kansas State