Tag: basketball

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru March 6)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense. (clinced teams in bold)

REGION A:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) Lehigh/Hampton
  • (8) Oregon State v (9) Wisconsin
  • (4) Maryland v (13) Monmouth
  • (5) Baylor v (12) Hawaii
  • (2) Oregon v (15) Stephen F Austin
  • (7) Iowa v (10) Stanford
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Butler v (11) Saint Bonaventure

REGION B:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Austin Peay/Texas Southern
  • (8) Saint Joseph’s v (9) South Carolina
  • (4) Texas v (13) Chattanooga
  • (5) Duke v (12) Arkansas-Little Rock
  • (2) Miami-FL v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Texas Tech v (10) Cincinnati
  • (3) Utah v (14) South Dakota State
  • (7) Dayton v (10) Syracuse

REGION C:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Florida Gulf Coast
  • (8) Notre Dame v (9) Saint Mary’s
  • (4) Purdue v (13) Hofstra
  • (5) California v (12) Valparaiso
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) UNC-Asheville
  • (7) Providence v (10) Michigan
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) Yale
  • (6) Arizona v (11) Connecticut/VCU

REGION D:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Wagner
  • (8) Colorado v (9) USC
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) Akron
  • (5) Texas A&M v (12) San Diego State
  • (2) Virginia v (15) Weber State
  • (7) Kentucky v (10) Pittsburgh
  • (3) Indiana v (14) UAB
  • (6) Seton Hall v (11) Temple/Florida State

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Michigan, Stanford, Saint Bonaventure, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Connecticut, Temple, Florida State, VCU

FIRST FOUR OUT: Vanderbilt, Gonzaga, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

NEXT FOUR OUT: Marquette, George Washington, Houston, Tulsa

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru March 4)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) Army/Hampton
  • (8) Pittsburgh v (9) Michigan
  • (4) Texas v (13) Monmouth
  • (5) Arizona v (12) Arkansas- Little Rock
  • (2) Oregon v (15) Stephen F Austin
  • (7) Providence v (10) Saint Bonaventure
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Butler v (11) Wichita State

REGION B:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Florida-Gulf Coast/Texas Southern
  • (8) Wisconsin v (9) USC
  • (4) Baylor v (13) Chattanooga
  • (5) Indiana v (12) San Diego State
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Iowa v (10) Syracuse
  • (3) Utah v (14) Yale
  • (6) Dayton v (11) Cincinnati

REGION C:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Wagner
  • (8) Colorado v (9) Notre Dame
  • (4) Duke v (13) Akron
  • (5) Purdue v (12) Valparaiso
  • (2) Virginia v (15) Winthrop
  • (7) Texas Tech v (10) South Carolina
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) South Dakota State
  • (6) Texas A&M v (11) Hawaii

REGION D:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Tennessee-Martin
  • (8) Saint Joseph’s v (9) Saint Mary’s
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) Hofstra
  • (5) California v (12) Connecticut/Temple
  • (2) Miami-FL v (15) Weber State
  • (7) Kentucky v (10) Oregon State
  • (3) Maryland v (14) UAB
  • (6) Seton Hall v (11) VCU/George Washington

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Oregon State, South Carolina, Syracuse, Saint Bonaventure

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: VCU, Connecticut, Temple, George Washington

FIRST FOUR OUT: Vanderbilt, Stanford, Marquette, Gonzaga

NEXT FOUR OUT: Houston, Ohio State, Kansas State, Florida State

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru February 28)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.  (from Feb 22, for weekly, regions will be added)

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

FINAL FOUR: MIDWEST v WEST, EAST v SOUTH

MIDWEST (Chicago, IL)

  • Des Moines, IA
    • (1) Kansas v (16) Hampton/Wagner
    • (8) Providence v (9) Wisconsin
  • Spokane, WA
    • (4) Duke v (13) Monmouth
    • (5) Seton Hall v (12) San Diego State
  • Spokane, WA
    • (2) Oregon v (15) Stephen F Austin
    • (7) Texas Tech v (10) Saint Mary’s
  • Denver, CO
    • (3) Utah v (14) Stony Brook
    • (6) Texas A&M v (11) Cincinnat

WEST (Anaheim, CA)

  • Oklahoma City, OK
    • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Weber State
    • (8) South Carolina v (9) Michigan
  • Des Moines, IA
    • (4) Iowa State v (13) Hofstra
    • (5) Indiana v (12) Hawaii
  • Raleigh, NC
    • (2) Miami-FL v (15) Winthrop
    • (7) Colorado v (10) Syracuse
  • Providence, RI
    • (3) Maryland v (14) UAB
    • (6) Saint Joseph’s v (11) Wichita State

EAST (Philadelphia, PA)

  • Brooklyn, NY
    • (1) Villanova v (16) Bucknell/Texas Southern
    • (8) Butler v (9) Oregon State
  • Denver, CO
    • (4) Texas v (13) Princeton
    • (5) California v (12) Valparaiso
  • Brooklyn, NY
    • (2) West Virginia v (15) New Mexico State
    • (7) Pittsburgh v (10) Arkansas-Little Rock
  • Providence, RI
    • (3) North Carolina v (14) South Dakota State
    • (6) Iowa v (11) Stanford

SOUTH (Louisville, KY)

  • Saint Louis, MO
    • (1) Xavier v (16) North Florida
    • (8) Kentucky v (9) Notre Dame
  • Oklahoma City, OK
    • (4) Baylor v (13) Chattanooga
    • (5) Purdue v (12) George Washington/VCU
  • Raleigh, NC
    • (2) Virginia v (15) Belmont
    • (7) Dayton v (10) USC
  • Saint Louis, MO
    • (3) Michigan State v (14) Akron
    • (6) Arizona v (11) Connecticut/Vanderbilt

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Michigan, Syracuse, USC, Stanford

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Connecticut, George Washington, VCU, Vanderbilt

FIRST FOUR OUT: Temple, Saint Bonaventure, Gonzaga, Marquette

NEXT FOUR OUT: Florida, Florida State, Tulsa, Alabama

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru February 21)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.  (from Feb 22, for weekly, regions will be added)

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

FINAL FOUR: EAST v WEST, SOUTH v MIDWEST

EAST (Philadelphia, PA)

  • Brooklyn, NY
    • (1) Villanova v (16) Hampton/Wagner
    • (8) USC v (9) Butler
  • Providence, RI
    • (4) Baylor v (13) Monmouth
    • (5) Duke v (12) Valparaiso
  • Providence, RI
    • (2) Maryland v (15) Stephen F Austin
    • (7) California v (10) Cincinnati
  • Saint Louis, MO
    • (3) West Virginia v (14) IPFW
    • (6) South Carolina v (11) Syracuse

WEST (Anaheim. CA)

  • Oklahoma City, OK
    • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Weber State
    • (8) Seton Hall v (9) Colorado
  • Denver, CO
    • (4) Utah v (13) Akron
    • (5) Saint Joseph’s
  • Raleigh, NC
    • (2) Virginia v (15) Winthrop
    • (7) Providence v (10) Connecticut
  • Oklahoma City, OK
    • (3) Iowa v (14) UNC-Wilmington
    • (6) Texas Tech v (11) George Washington/VCU

SOUTH (Louisville, KY)

  • Brooklyn, NY
    • (1) Xavier v (16) Navy/Southern
    • (8) Pittsburgh v (9) Michigan
  • Spokane, WA
    • (4) Iowa State v (13) Chattanooga
    • (5) Dayton v (12) San Diego State
  • Saint Louis, MO
    • (2) Miami-FL v (15) Belmont
    • (7) Texas A&M v (10) Oregon State
  • Spokane, WA
    • (3) Oregon v (14) UAB
    • (6) Purdue v (11) Arkansas-Little Rock

MIDWEST (Chicago, IL)

  • Des Moines, IA
    • (1) Kansas v (16) North Florida
    • (8) Notre Dame v (9) Hawaii
  • Denver, CO
    • (4) Arizona v (13) Princeton
    • (5) Indiana v (12) Wichita State
  • Raleigh, NC
    • (2) North Carolina v (15) New Mexico State
    • (7) Kentucky v (10) Wisconsin
  • Des Moines, IA
    • (3) Michigan State v (14) Stony Brook
    • (6) Texas v (11) Florida/Temple

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Wisconsin, Oregon State, Cincinnati, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Florida, George Washington, VCU, Temple

FIRST FOUR OUT: Kansas State, Creighton, Alabama, Washington

NEXT FOUR OUT: Tulsa, Saint Bonaventure, UCLA, Gonzaga

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru February 18)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Southern/Hampton
  • (8) Texas A&M v (9) Butler
  • (4) Saint Joseph’s v (13) San Diego State
  • (5) Iowa State v (12) Gonzaga
  • (2) North Carolina v (15) Stephen F Austin
  • (7) Indiana v (10) Oregon State
  • (3) Dayton v (14) UAB
  • (6) Providence v (11) Alabama

REGION B:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Navy/Wagner
  • (8) Seton Hall v (9) Colorado
  • (4) Arizona v (13) Akron
  • (5) Utah v (12) Monmouth
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) USC v (10) Hawaii
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) South Dakota State
  • (6) Notre Dame v (11) Arkansas-Little Rock

REGION C:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) North Florida
  • (8) Michigan v (9) Connecticut
  • (4) Oregon v (13) Valparaiso
  • (5) Purdue v (12) Wichita State
  • (2) Virginia v (15) Belmont
  • (7) South Carolina v (10) Syracuse
  • (3) Duke v (14) UNC-Wilmington
  • (6) Kentucky v (11) Wisconsin/Kansas State

REGION D:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Texas Tech v (9) Pittsburgh
  • (4) Maryland v (13) Yale
  • (5) Baylor v (12) Chattanooga
  • (2) Miami-FL v (15) Winthrop
  • (7) California v (10) Florida
  • (3) Iowa v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Texas v (11) George Washington/Cincinnati

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Florida, Syracuse, Oregon State, Alabama

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Wisconsin, George Washington, Cincinnati, Kansas State

FIRST FOUR OUT: VCU, Florida State, Creighton, Temple

NEXT FOUR OUT: Stanford, Saint Mary’s, Tulsa, Clemson

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru February 16)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Southern/Hampton
  • (8) Seton Hall v (9) USC
  • (4) Purdue v (13) San Diego State
  • (5) Duke v (12) Wichita State
  • (2) Dayton v (15) Stephen F Austin
  • (7) Michigan v (10) Wisconsin
  • (3) Iowa v (14) UAB
  • (6) Kentucky v (11) Oregon State

REGION B:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) North Florida/Wagner
  • (8) California v (9) Pittsburgh
  • (4) Arizona v (13) Akron
  • (5) Baylor v (12) Monmouth
  • (2) Miami-FL v (15) Belmont
  • (7) Colorado v (10) Hawaii
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) South Dakota State
  • (6) Providence v (11) Cincinnati/George Washington

REGION C:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Navy
  • (8) Butler v (9) Texas Tech
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) Valparaiso
  • (5) Utah v (12) Gonzaga
  • (2) Maryland v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Texas A&M v (10) Connecticut
  • (3) West Virginia v (14) Yale
  • (6) Notre Dame v (11) Florida State/Alabama

REGION D:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Indiana v (9) Syracuse
  • (4) Oregon v (13) Stony Brook
  • (5) Texas v (12) Chattanooga
  • (2) Virginia v (15) Winthrop
  • (7) South Carolina v (10) Florida
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) NC-Wilmington
  • (6) Saint Joseph’s v (11) Arkansas-Little Rock

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Syracuse, Florida, Wisconsin, Oregon State

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Cincinnati, Florida State, Alabama, George Washington

FIRST FOUR OUT: Kansas State, Creighton, VCU, Temple

NEXT FOUR OUT: Saint Bonaventure, Washington, Stanford, LSU

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru February 14)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Southern/Hampton
  • (8) USC v (9) Butler
  • (4) Duke v (13) Wichita State
  • (5) South Carolina v (12) Monmouth
  • (2) Dayton v (15) Stephen F Austin
  • (7) Texas v (10) Oregon State
  • (3) Miami-FL v (14) UAB
  • (6) Baylor v (11) Florida

REGION B:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Navy/Wagner
  • (8) California v (9) Texas Tech
  • (4) Arizona v (13) Valparaiso
  • (5) Purdue v (12) San Diego State
  • (2) Iowa v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Michigan v (10) Wisconsin
  • (3) Virginia v (14) South Dakota State
  • (6) Kentucky v (11) Cincinnati/Creighton

REGION C:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) North Florida
  • (8) Seton Hall v (9) Syracuse
  • (4) Oregon v (13) Akron
  • (5) Utah v (12) Gonzaga
  • (2) Maryland v (15) Belmont
  • (7) Colorado v (10) Hawaii
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) Yale
  • (6) Notre Dame v (11) Florida State/Alabama

REGION D:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Weber State
  • (8) Texas A&M v (9) Pittsburgh
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) Stony Brook
  • (5) Saint Joseph’s v (12) Chattanooga
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) Winthrop
  • (7) Indiana v (10) Connecticut
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) UNC-Wilmington
  • (6) Providence v (11) Arkansas-Little Rock

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Oregon State, Florida

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Cincinnati, Florida State, Alabama, Creighton

FIRST FOUR OUT: George Washington, Temple, Saint Bonaventure, Kansas State

NEXT FOUR OUT: Washington, VCU, Stanford, Saint Mary’s