Tag: basketball

2017 NCAA Bradley Terry Bracket #3 (thru December 25)

BASED ON CURRENT RATINGS:  EAST v WEST, SOUTH v MIDWEST

EAST REGION (New York, NY)

Buffalo, NY

  • (1) West Virginia v (16) Houston Baptist/UC-Irvine
  • (8) Michigan v (9) Virginia Tech

Salt Lake City, UT

  • (4) Notre Dame v (13) Arkansas State
  • (5) Creighton v (12) Monmouth

Tulsa, OK

  • (2) Kansas v (15) Oakland
  • (7) South Carolina v (10) Marquette

Orlando, FL

  • (3) Duke v (14) Akron
  • (6) Wichita State v (11) Southern Cal

SOUTH REGION (Memphis, TN)

Indianapolis, IN

  • (1) Kentucky v (16) Texas Southern/Wagner
  • (8) Clemson v (9) TCU

Salt Lake City, UT

  • (4) Wisconsin v (13) Nevada
  • (5) Florida State v (12) Middle Tennessee

Indianapolis, IN

  • (2) Louisville v (15) Cal St-Bakersfield
  • (7) Butler v (10) Arkansas

Sacramento, CA

  • (3) UCLA v (14) FL Gulf Coast
  • (6) Oklahoma State v (11) Dayton

MIDWEST REGION (Kansas City, MO)

Buffalo, NY

  • (1) Villanova v (16) North Dakota
  • (8) Wake Forest v (9) Minnesota

Orlando, FL

  • (4) Florida v (13) IPFW
  • (5) Cincinnati v (12) UNC-Wilmington

Greenville, SC

  • (2) Virginia v (15) Vermont
  • (7) Arizona v (10) Kansas State

Milwaukee, WI

  • (3) Purdue v (14) Tennessee State
  • (6) Texas Tech v (11) Texas A&M/Illinois

WEST REGION (San Jose, CA)

Greenville, SC

  • (1) North Carolina v (16) NC Central
  • (8) Xavier v (9) SMU

Milwaukee, WI

  • (4) Indiana v (13) Lehigh
  • (5) Iowa State v (12) Chattanooga

Sacrament, CA

  • (2) Gonzaga v (15) UNC-Asheville
  • (7) Miami-FL v (10) Northwestern

Tulsa, OK

  • (3) Baylor v (14) Yale
  • (6) Saint Mary’s v (11) Oregon/Rhode Island

Last four byes: Kansas State, Marquette, Arkansas, USC

Last four in: Oregon, Texas A&M, Illinois, Rhode Island

First four out: Houston, Seton Hall, Providence, Ohio State

Next four out: Davidson, California, Central Florida, Georgetown

Four more: Temple, Pittsburgh, Auburn, Georgia

2017 NCAA Bradley Terry Bracket #2 (thru December 22)

BASED ON CURRENT RATINGS:  EAST v WEST, SOUTH v MIDWEST

EAST REGION (New York, NY)

Buffalo, NY

  • (1) West Virginia v (16) Houston Baptist/UC-Irvine
  • (8) Michigan v (9) Virginia Tech

Salt Lake City, UT

  • (4) Notre Dame v (13) Nevada
  • (5) Creighton v (12) Monmouth

Sacramento, CA

  • (2) Gonzaga v (15) Cal St-Bakersfield
  • (7) South Carolina v (10) Kansas State

Orlando, FL

  • (3) Duke v (14) FL-Gulf Coast
  • (6) Oklahoma State v (11) Providence

SOUTH REGION (Memphis, TN)

Indianapolis, IN

  • (1) Kentucky v (16) Texas Southern/Wagner
  • (8) Xavier v (9) TCU

Salt Lake City, UT

  • (4) Wisconsin v (13) IPFW
  • (5) Florida State v (12) Middle Tennessee

Indianapolis, IN

  • (2) Louisville v (15) UNC-Asheville
  • (7) Butler v (10) Arkansas

Sacramento, CA

  • (3) UCLA v (14) Akron
  • (6) Texas Tech v (11) Rhode Island

MIDWEST REGION (Kansas City, MO)

Buffalo, NY

  • (1) Villanova v (16) North Dakota
  • (8) Wake Forest v (9) Minnesota

Orlando, FL

  • (4) Florida v (13) Arkansas State
  • (5) Cincinnati v (12) UNC-Wilmington

Tulsa, OK

  • (2) Kansas v (15) Oakland
  • (7) Miami-FL v (10) Marquette

Milwaukee, WI

  • (3) Purdue v (14) Tennessee State
  • (6) Saint Mary’s v (11) USC/Texas A&M

WEST REGION (San Jose, CA)

Greenville, SC

  • (1) North Carolina v (16) NC Central
  • (8) Clemson v (9) SMU

Milwaukee, WI

  • (4) Indiana v (13) Lehigh
  • (5) Iowa State v (12) Chattanooga

Greenville, SC

  • (2) Virginia v (15) Vermont
  • (7) Arizona v (10) Northwestern

Tulsa, OK

  • (3) Baylor v (14) Yale
  • (6) Wichita State v (11) Houston/Oregon

Last four byes: Kansas State, Marquette, Arkansas, Providence

Last four in: USC, Houston, Oregon, Texas A&M

First four out: Illinois, Dayton, Ohio State, Seton Hall

Next four out: Georgia, Davidson, Central Florida, California

Four more: Georgetown, Temple, Pittsburgh, Auburn

2017 NCAA Bradley Terry Bracket

BASED ON CURRENT RATINGS (thru December 18 results) EAST v WEST, SOUTH v MIDWEST

EAST REGION (New York, NY)

Buffalo, NY

  • (1) West Virginia v (16) Sam Houston/UC Irvine
  • (8) Northwestern v (9) Clemson

Orlando, FL

  • (2) North Carolina v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Oklahoma State v (10) Marquette

Sacramento, CA

  • (3) Gonzaga v (14) Vermont
  • (6) South Carolina v (11) Oregon

Salt Lake City, UT

  • (4) Florida v (13) IPFW
  • (5) Iowa State v (12) Arkansas State

SOUTH REGION (Memphis, TN)

Indianapolis, IN

  • (1) Kentucky v (16) Texas Southern/Wagner
  • (8) Virginia Tech v (9) Arizona

Tulsa, OK

  • (2) Kansas v (15) Tennessee State
  • (7) Butler v (10) Wake Forest

Indianapolis, IN

  • (3) Louisville v (14) Akron
  • (6) Saint Mary’s v (11) SMU/Illinois

Orlando, FL

  • (4) Indiana v (13) Monmouth
  • (5) Florida State v (12) Chattanooga

MIDWEST REGION (Kansas City, MO)

Greenville, SC

  • (1) Virginia v (16) North Dakota
  • (8) Xavier v (9) Minnesota

Sacramento, CA

  • (2) UCLA v (15) Florida Gulf Coast
  • (7) Michigan v (10) Providence

Milwaukee, WI

  • (3) Purdue v (14) Oakland
  • (6) Texas Tech v (11) Houston/Rhode Island

Salt Lake City, UT

  • (4) Cincinnati v (13) Nevada
  • (5) Creighton v (12) UNC-Wilmington

WEST REGION (San Jose, CA)

Buffalo, NY

  • (1) Villanova v (16) NC Central
  • (8) Kansas State v (9) Southern California

Greenville, SC

  • (2) Duke v (15) UNC-Asheville
  • (7) Wichita State v (10) TCU

Tulsa, OK

  • (3) Baylor v (14) Lehigh
  • (6) Miami-FL v (11) Dayton

Milwaukee, WI

  • (4) Notre Dame v (13) Yale
  • (5) Wisconsin v (12) Middle Tennessee

Last four byes: Arizona, Wake Forest, TCU, Oregon

Last four in: SMU, Houston, Rhode Island, Illinois

First four out: Arkansas, Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Ohio State

Next four out: Syracuse, Davidson, Temple, Central Florida

Four more: Auburn, VCU, Stanford, Pittsburgh

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru March 8)

For the whole season I’ve been fitting Bradley-Terry results, and that still holds.  But another consideration is “HOW” you play – and nothing captures that better in a simple way than Ken Pomeroy (and schedule adjusted also).  Giving them equal weight?  I used the “Bradley-Terry” winning percentage as one scale and KenPom’s pythag ratings as another.  Averaging them, how do things change?  We’ll track this the rest of the way.  Automatics in BOLD

REGION A:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) Austin Peay/Hampton
  • (8) Notre Dame v (9) Saint Mary’s
  • (4) Arizona v (13) UNC-Wilmington
  • (5) Duke v (12) Stephen F Austin
  • (2) North Carolina v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Butler v (10) VCU
  • (3) Miami-FL v (14) Iona
  • (6) Seton Hall v (11) Syracuse

REGION B:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Texas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson
  • (8) Vanderbilt v (9) Connecticut
  • (4) Kentucky v (13) Akron
  • (5) Iowa v (12) Hawaii
  • (2) Xavier v (15) Green Bay
  • (7) Wisconsin v (10) South Carolina
  • (3) Oregon v (14) UAB
  • (6) Baylor v (11) San Diego State

REGION C:

  • (1) Virginia v (16) Florida Gulf Coast
  • (8) Cincinnati v (9) Dayton
  • (4) Purdue v (13) South Dakota State
  • (5) Texas A&M v (12) Yale
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) UNC-Asheville
  • (7) Texas Tech v (10) Saint Joseph’s
  • (3) Indiana v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Texas v (11) Colorado/Florida State

REGION D:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Lehigh
  • (8) Gonzaga v (9) Providence
  • (4) Utah v (13) Chattanooga
  • (5) California v (12) Arkansas-Little Rock
  • (2) Michigan State v (15) Weber State
  • (7) Wichita State v (10) Pittsburgh
  • (3) Iowa State v (14) Northern Iowa
  • (6) Maryland v (11) USC/Michigan

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Saint Joseph’s, South Carolina, VCU, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Colorado, USC, Michigan, Florida State

FIRST FOUR OUT: Oregon State, Florida, Valparaiso, Tulsa

NEXT FOUR OUT: Houston, Kansas State, Creighton, Georgia Tech

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru March 7)

For the whole season I’ve been fitting Bradley-Terry results, and that still holds.  But another consideration is “HOW” you play – and nothing captures that better in a simple way than Ken Pomeroy (and schedule adjusted also).  Giving them equal weight?  I used the “Bradley-Terry” winning percentage as one scale and KenPom’s pythag ratings as another.  Averaging them, how do things change?  We’ll track this the rest of the way.  Automatics in BOLD

REGION A:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) Florida Gulf Coast/Hampton
  • (8) Notre Dame v (9) Connecticut
  • (4) Arizona v (13) UNC-Wilmington
  • (5) Duke v (12) Stephen F Austin
  • (2) North Carolina v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Butler v (10) VCU
  • (3) Miami-FL v (14) UAB
  • (6) Seton Hall v (11) Syracuse

REGION B:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Texas Southern/Austin Peay
  • (8) Vanderbilt v (9) Gonzaga
  • (4) Kentucky v (13) Akron
  • (5) Iowa v (12) Hawaii
  • (2) Xavier v (15) Green Bay
  • (7) Wisconsin v (10) South Carolina
  • (3) Oregon v (14) Iona
  • (6) Baylor v (11) San Diego State

REGION C:

  • (1) Virginia v (16) Lehigh
  • (8) Cincinnati v (9) Dayton
  • (4) Purdue v (13) South Dakota State
  • (5) California v (12) Yale
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) UNC-Asheville
  • (7) Texas Tech v (10) Saint Joseph’s
  • (3) Indiana v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Texas v (11) Colorado/Oregon State

REGION D:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Wagner
  • (8) Saint Mary’s v (9) Providence
  • (4) Utah v (13) Chattanooga
  • (5) Texas A&M v (12) Arkansas-Little Rock
  • (2) Michigan State v (15) Weber State
  • (7) Wichita State v (10) Pittsburgh
  • (3) Iowa State v (14) Northern Iowa
  • (6) Maryland v (11) USC/Michigan

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Saint Joseph’s, South Carolina, VCU, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Colorado, USC, Michigan, Oregon State

FIRST FOUR OUT: Florida State, Florida, Valparaiso, Tulsa

NEXT FOUR OUT: Houston, Kansas State, Creighton, Georgia Tech

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru March 6)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense. (clinced teams in bold)

REGION A:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) Lehigh/Hampton
  • (8) Oregon State v (9) Wisconsin
  • (4) Maryland v (13) Monmouth
  • (5) Baylor v (12) Hawaii
  • (2) Oregon v (15) Stephen F Austin
  • (7) Iowa v (10) Stanford
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Butler v (11) Saint Bonaventure

REGION B:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Austin Peay/Texas Southern
  • (8) Saint Joseph’s v (9) South Carolina
  • (4) Texas v (13) Chattanooga
  • (5) Duke v (12) Arkansas-Little Rock
  • (2) Miami-FL v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Texas Tech v (10) Cincinnati
  • (3) Utah v (14) South Dakota State
  • (7) Dayton v (10) Syracuse

REGION C:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Florida Gulf Coast
  • (8) Notre Dame v (9) Saint Mary’s
  • (4) Purdue v (13) Hofstra
  • (5) California v (12) Valparaiso
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) UNC-Asheville
  • (7) Providence v (10) Michigan
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) Yale
  • (6) Arizona v (11) Connecticut/VCU

REGION D:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Wagner
  • (8) Colorado v (9) USC
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) Akron
  • (5) Texas A&M v (12) San Diego State
  • (2) Virginia v (15) Weber State
  • (7) Kentucky v (10) Pittsburgh
  • (3) Indiana v (14) UAB
  • (6) Seton Hall v (11) Temple/Florida State

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Michigan, Stanford, Saint Bonaventure, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: Connecticut, Temple, Florida State, VCU

FIRST FOUR OUT: Vanderbilt, Gonzaga, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

NEXT FOUR OUT: Marquette, George Washington, Houston, Tulsa

Mock Tournament – 2015/16 NCAA Men’s Basketball (results thru March 4)

Fitting the latest Bradley-Terry results, a tournament bracket would look like (REGION A has 1-overall, REGION B: 2-overall and so-on.  A plays D, B plays C in Final Four).  I ignore bracketing considerations – it is hard enough generating a field of 68.

Note this is a “should”, not a prediction.  One of the interesting parts of the model is that it assumes NOTHING about the teams aside from wins and losses and how they fit together to imply something about the team’s relative standing.  Personally I believe sticking to the record and not divining other factors (like injuries) is the fairest way to do this.  I will use the Bradley-Terry standings to assign all automatic bids except for the Ivy League (where I use the standings).  This is because all of the other leagues use tournaments, so sticking with the indicator for “best team” seemed suitable.

I will stick to the APR and eligibility rules – so SMU, Massachusetts-Lowell, Northern Kentucky, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Grand Canyon, Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson, Pacific and Southern Mississippi are all ineligible for the tournament and left out of this bracket.  Personally, most of these restrictions are nonsense.

REGION A:

  • (1) Kansas v (16) Army/Hampton
  • (8) Pittsburgh v (9) Michigan
  • (4) Texas v (13) Monmouth
  • (5) Arizona v (12) Arkansas- Little Rock
  • (2) Oregon v (15) Stephen F Austin
  • (7) Providence v (10) Saint Bonaventure
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) Stony Brook
  • (6) Butler v (11) Wichita State

REGION B:

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Florida-Gulf Coast/Texas Southern
  • (8) Wisconsin v (9) USC
  • (4) Baylor v (13) Chattanooga
  • (5) Indiana v (12) San Diego State
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) New Mexico State
  • (7) Iowa v (10) Syracuse
  • (3) Utah v (14) Yale
  • (6) Dayton v (11) Cincinnati

REGION C:

  • (1) Xavier v (16) Wagner
  • (8) Colorado v (9) Notre Dame
  • (4) Duke v (13) Akron
  • (5) Purdue v (12) Valparaiso
  • (2) Virginia v (15) Winthrop
  • (7) Texas Tech v (10) South Carolina
  • (3) Michigan State v (14) South Dakota State
  • (6) Texas A&M v (11) Hawaii

REGION D:

  • (1) Oklahoma v (16) Tennessee-Martin
  • (8) Saint Joseph’s v (9) Saint Mary’s
  • (4) Iowa State v (13) Hofstra
  • (5) California v (12) Connecticut/Temple
  • (2) Miami-FL v (15) Weber State
  • (7) Kentucky v (10) Oregon State
  • (3) Maryland v (14) UAB
  • (6) Seton Hall v (11) VCU/George Washington

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 64: Oregon State, South Carolina, Syracuse, Saint Bonaventure

LAST FOUR IN FIELD OF 68: VCU, Connecticut, Temple, George Washington

FIRST FOUR OUT: Vanderbilt, Stanford, Marquette, Gonzaga

NEXT FOUR OUT: Houston, Ohio State, Kansas State, Florida State