Tag: NCAA

2017 College Football Rankings #4

Well, that’s interestimg.  So now, TCU, Penn State add losses while Notre Dame continues to rise with routs of USC and NC State.  With the first college playoff rankings announced, it seemed like an opportune time to write a bit more here.  These are the rankings entering Friday’s games.

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Georgia 8 0 0.5038 1.000 0.5038 40
2 Miami-FL 7 0 0.4774 0.977 0.4774 48
3 Alabama 8 0 0.4599 0.962 0.4599 55
4 Notre Dame 7 1 0.4597 0.962 0.5847 8
5 Clemson 7 1 0.4580 0.960 0.5830 9
6 Penn State 7 1 0.4574 0.960 0.5824 10
7 Ohio State 7 1 0.4543 0.957 0.5793 11
8 Wisconsin 8 0 0.4531 0.956 0.4531 60
9 Oklahoma State 7 1 0.4258 0.933 0.5508 22
10 Oklahoma 7 1 0.4230 0.930 0.5480 25
11 TCU 7 1 0.3799 0.893 0.5049 39
12 Michigan State 6 2 0.3527 0.869 0.6027 4
13 UCF 7 0 0.3452 0.863 0.3452 107
14 USC 7 2 0.3315 0.851 0.5537 21
15 Michigan 6 2 0.3250 0.845 0.5750 12
16 Iowa State 6 2 0.2927 0.817 0.5427 27
17 Washington 7 1 0.2907 0.816 0.4157 75
18 Virginia Tech 7 1 0.2901 0.815 0.4151 76
19 NC State 6 2 0.2760 0.803 0.5260 34
20 Memphis 7 1 0.2576 0.787 0.3826 91
21 Toledo 8 1 0.2375 0.770 0.3487 106
22 Mississippi State 6 2 0.2357 0.768 0.4857 42
23 Iowa 5 3 0.2111 0.747 0.5861 6
24 Northwestern 5 3 0.2106 0.746 0.5856 7
25 South Carolina 6 2 0.2101 0.746 0.4601 54
26 Washington State 7 2 0.2087 0.745 0.4309 66
27 Auburn 6 2 0.2052 0.742 0.4552 58
28 LSU 6 2 0.2045 0.741 0.4545 59
29 Boston College 5 4 0.1999 0.737 0.6444 3
30 San Diego State 7 2 0.1992 0.737 0.4214 73
31 Stanford 6 2 0.1987 0.736 0.4487 62
32 Kentucky 6 2 0.1808 0.721 0.4308 68
33 Boise State 6 2 0.1605 0.703 0.4105 78
34 Wake Forest 5 3 0.1538 0.697 0.5288 33
35 Maryland 4 4 0.1513 0.695 0.6513 2
36 Arizona 6 2 0.1244 0.672 0.3744 97
37 SMU 6 2 0.1232 0.671 0.3732 98
38 South Florida 7 1 0.1166 0.665 0.2416 123
39 Navy 5 3 0.1082 0.658 0.4832 46
40 Texas A&M 5 3 0.1047 0.655 0.4797 47
41 Nebraska 4 4 0.0978 0.649 0.5978 5
42 Louisville 5 4 0.0907 0.643 0.5351 31
43 Houston 5 3 0.0862 0.639 0.4612 53
44 Army 6 2 0.0842 0.637 0.3342 110
45 West Virginia 5 3 0.0841 0.637 0.4591 56
46 Georgia Tech 4 3 0.0774 0.631 0.5060 37
47 Troy 7 2 0.0728 0.627 0.2950 116
48 Northern Illinois 6 3 0.0718 0.626 0.4051 83
49 Texas 4 4 0.0713 0.626 0.5713 14
50 Ohio 7 2 0.0596 0.616 0.2819 118
51 Arizona State 4 4 0.0569 0.614 0.5569 19
52 Texas Tech 4 4 0.0480 0.606 0.5480 24
53 Virginia 5 3 0.0449 0.603 0.4199 74
54 Fresno State 5 3 0.0336 0.593 0.4086 80
55 UCLA 4 4 0.0324 0.592 0.5324 32
56 Oregon 5 4 0.0316 0.592 0.4761 49
57 FIU 5 2 0.0300 0.590 0.3158 113
58 Colorado State 6 3 0.0297 0.590 0.3631 102
59 Marshall 6 2 0.0073 0.571 0.2573 120
60 North Texas 5 3 0.0037 0.568 0.3787 94
61 Akron 5 4 0.0002 0.565 0.4446 63
62 Florida 3 4 -0.0092 0.556 0.5622 18
63 Syracuse 4 4 -0.0157 0.551 0.4843 43
64 Pittsburgh 4 5 -0.0160 0.551 0.5395 28
65 Florida Atlantic 5 3 -0.0219 0.545 0.3531 104
66 Colorado 5 4 -0.0221 0.545 0.4223 72
67 Wyoming 5 3 -0.0238 0.544 0.3512 105
68 Florida State 2 5 -0.0308 0.538 0.6835 1
69 Minnesota 4 4 -0.0371 0.532 0.4629 52
70 California 4 5 -0.0392 0.531 0.5164 35
71 Arkansas State 5 2 -0.0462 0.524 0.2395 124
72 Purdue 3 5 -0.0532 0.518 0.5718 13
73 Indiana 3 5 -0.0546 0.517 0.5704 15
74 Central Michigan 5 4 -0.0592 0.513 0.3853 89
75 Rutgers 3 5 -0.0606 0.512 0.5644 17
76 Air Force 4 4 -0.0691 0.505 0.4309 67
77 Arkansas 3 5 -0.0708 0.503 0.5542 20
78 Utah 4 4 -0.0726 0.502 0.4274 69
79 Kansas State 4 4 -0.0730 0.501 0.4270 70
80 Appalachian State 5 3 -0.0741 0.500 0.3009 115
81 Tennessee 3 5 -0.0766 0.498 0.5484 23
82 Western Michigan 5 4 -0.0766 0.498 0.3678 100
83 Vanderbilt 3 5 -0.0805 0.495 0.5445 26
84 Duke 4 5 -0.0838 0.492 0.4717 50
85 UTSA 5 2 -0.1169 0.463 0.1688 131
86 Southern Miss 5 3 -0.1379 0.445 0.2371 126
87 Ole Miss 3 5 -0.1416 0.442 0.4834 45
88 UAB 5 3 -0.1607 0.425 0.2143 129
89 Missouri 3 5 -0.1612 0.425 0.4638 51
90 Utah State 4 5 -0.1656 0.421 0.3900 86
91 Tulane 3 5 -0.1676 0.420 0.4574 57
92 Temple 4 5 -0.1750 0.413 0.3805 93
93 Georgia State 4 3 -0.1774 0.411 0.2512 121
94 Louisiana Tech 4 4 -0.1824 0.407 0.3176 112
95 Western Kentucky 5 3 -0.1932 0.397 0.1818 130
96 MTSU 3 5 -0.2128 0.380 0.4122 77
97 New Mexico 3 5 -0.2252 0.370 0.3998 85
98 UNLV 3 5 -0.2356 0.361 0.3894 87
99 Cincinnati 2 6 -0.2448 0.353 0.5052 38
100 Illinois 2 6 -0.2541 0.345 0.4959 41
101 Eastern Michigan 3 6 -0.2611 0.339 0.4056 82
102 South Alabama 3 5 -0.2664 0.334 0.3586 103
103 Buffalo 3 6 -0.2792 0.323 0.3875 88
104 Connecticut 3 5 -0.2896 0.314 0.3354 108
105 New Mexico State 3 5 -0.2901 0.314 0.3349 109
106 Miami-OH 3 6 -0.2922 0.312 0.3745 96
107 Hawaii 3 5 -0.2941 0.310 0.3309 111
108 LA-Lafayette 3 4 -0.2978 0.307 0.2737 119
109 North Carolina 1 8 -0.3229 0.285 0.5660 16
110 Tulsa 2 7 -0.3282 0.281 0.4496 61
111 Oregon State 1 7 -0.3377 0.272 0.5373 29
112 Kent State 2 7 -0.3401 0.270 0.4376 65
113 East Carolina 2 6 -0.3428 0.268 0.4072 81
114 BYU 2 7 -0.3517 0.260 0.4261 71
115 Kansas 1 7 -0.3642 0.250 0.5108 36
116 Idaho 3 6 -0.3803 0.236 0.2864 117
117 Old Dominion 2 6 -0.3809 0.235 0.3691 99
118 Bowling Green 2 7 -0.4009 0.218 0.3769 95
119 LA-Monroe 3 5 -0.4046 0.215 0.2204 128
120 Ball State 2 7 -0.4124 0.208 0.3653 101
121 Other 9 83 -0.4180 0.203 0.4842 44
122 Nevada 1 7 -0.4366 0.187 0.4384 64
123 Baylor 0 8 -0.4646 0.163 0.5354 30
124 San Jose State 1 8 -0.4854 0.145 0.4035 84
125 Rice 1 7 -0.4930 0.138 0.3820 92
126 Texas State 2 6 -0.5044 0.128 0.2456 122
127 Massachusetts 2 6 -0.5110 0.123 0.2390 125
128 Charlotte 1 7 -0.5697 0.072 0.3053 114
129 Georgia Southern 0 7 -0.5896 0.055 0.4104 79
130 UTEP 0 8 -0.6165 0.031 0.3835 90
131 Coastal Carolina 1 7 -0.6528 0.000 0.2222 127

The bowl matchups if the season ended today? (with a little projection for mega-conferences)

  • The top 4 is less simple here.  Considering that Miami-FL and Clemson would play each other … and Alabama and Georgia would play each other.  I use the adjusted scoring margins to choose winners there.  This puts Clemson and Georgia in the Top 2.  Despite a slightly higher ranking, Ohio State gets credit for the head to head win (which moves them into Big Ten champ territory).  Thus, Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson and Ohio State get the 4 spots now.
  • The other automatic bids include the Pac-12 leader (#14 USC) and the Group of Five rep (#13 Central Florida – San Diego State is higher ranked but not leading the Mountain West), Oklahoma State (Big 12).
  • Orange Bowl is the highest remaining ACC team against the highest ranked Big Ten, SEC, or ND team that is not a conference champ.  So – this means Alabama gets the slot
  • That leaves four more teams to place into bowls.  By ranking, we go Penn State, Wisconsin, Oklahoma and TCU.  This seems reasonable.
  • Using these matchups?
    • Sugar Bowl: Georgia v Ohio State
    • Rose Bowl: Notre Dame v Clemson
    • Orange Bowl: Miami-FL v Alabama
    • Fiesta Bowl: USC v Central Florida
    • Cotton Bowl: Penn State v Oklahoma
    • Peach Bowl: Wisconsin v TCU
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2017 College Football Rankings #3

It’s always the weeks you don’t expect where the fun lies.  What looked like a sleepy weekend without any ranked v ranked games – and whaddya know?  Clemson, Washington, Washington State, Auburn all go down, with Michigan just dodging a bullet.  TCU registers another good road win to continue to amass the best resume in the country to date.  How does it all shake down rankings-wise?

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 TCU 6 0 0.5517 1.000 0.5517 17
2 Alabama 7 0 0.5346 0.987 0.5346 23
3 Penn State 6 0 0.5116 0.970 0.5116 35
4 Miami-FL 5 0 0.5115 0.970 0.5115 36
5 Georgia 7 0 0.4809 0.947 0.4809 51
6 Wisconsin 6 0 0.4617 0.933 0.4617 57
7 Michigan State 5 1 0.4485 0.923 0.6152 4
8 Ohio State 6 1 0.4026 0.889 0.5454 21
9 Clemson 6 1 0.3984 0.886 0.5413 22
10 Michigan 5 1 0.3966 0.885 0.5632 14
11 USC 6 1 0.3813 0.873 0.5241 28
12 Oklahoma 5 1 0.3812 0.873 0.5479 18
13 Oklahoma State 5 1 0.3635 0.860 0.5302 25
14 Notre Dame 5 1 0.3566 0.855 0.5233 29
15 San Diego State 6 1 0.3390 0.842 0.4818 49
16 NC State 6 1 0.3298 0.835 0.4726 53
17 UCF 5 0 0.3242 0.831 0.3242 110
18 Navy 5 1 0.2842 0.801 0.4509 58
19 Washington 6 1 0.2779 0.797 0.4207 74
20 Washington State 6 1 0.2741 0.794 0.4170 76
21 Iowa 4 2 0.2404 0.769 0.5738 9
22 Virginia 5 1 0.2327 0.763 0.3994 88
23 Stanford 5 2 0.2314 0.762 0.5171 32
24 Kentucky 5 1 0.2247 0.757 0.3914 93
25 Memphis 5 1 0.2005 0.739 0.3672 100
26 Virginia Tech 5 1 0.1997 0.739 0.3664 101
27 South Carolina 5 2 0.1965 0.736 0.4822 47
28 Texas A&M 5 2 0.1963 0.736 0.4820 48
29 Toledo 5 1 0.1957 0.736 0.3624 102
30 Wake Forest 4 2 0.1799 0.724 0.5132 33
31 Florida State 2 3 0.1673 0.714 0.7673 1
32 Iowa State 4 2 0.1604 0.709 0.4937 39
33 LSU 5 2 0.1596 0.709 0.4453 59
34 Auburn 5 2 0.1531 0.704 0.4389 64
35 Mississippi State 4 2 0.1509 0.702 0.4842 45
36 Texas Tech 4 2 0.1480 0.700 0.4813 50
37 South Florida 6 0 0.1470 0.699 0.1470 131
38 Boise State 4 2 0.1470 0.699 0.4803 52
39 Maryland 3 3 0.1423 0.696 0.6423 2
40 North Texas 4 2 0.1087 0.671 0.4420 62
41 California 4 3 0.1027 0.666 0.5313 24
42 Houston 4 2 0.0998 0.664 0.4331 67
43 Arizona State 3 3 0.0989 0.664 0.5989 5
44 Fresno State 4 2 0.0986 0.663 0.4320 69
45 Utah 4 2 0.0914 0.658 0.4247 72
46 Marshall 5 1 0.0903 0.657 0.2570 124
47 Indiana 3 3 0.0790 0.649 0.5790 6
48 SMU 4 2 0.0788 0.649 0.4122 80
49 Northwestern 3 3 0.0766 0.647 0.5766 8
50 Colorado State 5 2 0.0761 0.647 0.3618 103
51 Northern Illinois 4 2 0.0707 0.643 0.4040 86
52 Purdue 3 3 0.0678 0.641 0.5678 11
53 Army 5 2 0.0662 0.639 0.3520 104
54 Texas 3 3 0.0644 0.638 0.5644 12
55 West Virginia 4 2 0.0634 0.637 0.3968 89
56 Troy 4 2 0.0632 0.637 0.3966 90
57 Duke 4 3 0.0616 0.636 0.4902 42
58 Oregon 4 3 0.0596 0.634 0.4882 43
59 Boston College 3 4 0.0559 0.632 0.6274 3
60 Louisville 4 3 0.0539 0.630 0.4825 46
61 Appalachian State 4 2 0.0424 0.622 0.3757 98
62 Ole Miss 3 3 0.0221 0.607 0.5221 30
63 Florida 3 3 0.0178 0.603 0.5178 31
64 Akron 4 3 0.0153 0.602 0.4439 60
65 Georgia Tech 3 2 0.0099 0.598 0.4099 81
66 Arizona 4 2 0.0045 0.594 0.3379 108
67 UCLA 3 3 -0.0042 0.587 0.4958 38
68 Wyoming 4 2 -0.0067 0.585 0.3266 109
69 Nebraska 3 4 -0.0079 0.584 0.5636 13
70 Syracuse 4 3 -0.0111 0.582 0.4175 75
71 Vanderbilt 3 4 -0.0128 0.581 0.5587 15
72 Western Michigan 4 3 -0.0152 0.579 0.4134 79
73 Minnesota 3 3 -0.0280 0.569 0.4720 54
74 FIU 4 2 -0.0339 0.565 0.2995 117
75 Tennessee 3 3 -0.0367 0.563 0.4633 56
76 Ohio 5 2 -0.0383 0.562 0.2474 125
77 Southern Miss 4 2 -0.0399 0.561 0.2935 118
78 Colorado 4 3 -0.0474 0.555 0.3812 97
79 Tulane 3 3 -0.0610 0.545 0.4390 63
80 UAB 4 2 -0.0762 0.534 0.2571 123
81 New Mexico 3 3 -0.0772 0.533 0.4228 73
82 Kansas State 3 3 -0.0836 0.528 0.4164 77
83 Arkansas 2 4 -0.0882 0.525 0.5785 7
84 Arkansas State 3 2 -0.1095 0.509 0.2905 119
85 Florida Atlantic 3 3 -0.1119 0.507 0.3881 95
86 UTSA 3 2 -0.1218 0.500 0.2782 121
87 Louisiana Tech 3 3 -0.1247 0.498 0.3753 99
88 Rutgers 2 4 -0.1579 0.473 0.5088 37
89 Georgia State 3 2 -0.1596 0.472 0.2404 126
90 Pittsburgh 2 5 -0.1624 0.470 0.5519 16
91 MTSU 3 4 -0.1636 0.469 0.4078 83
92 Buffalo 3 4 -0.1690 0.465 0.4025 87
93 Western Kentucky 4 2 -0.1755 0.460 0.1579 130
94 New Mexico State 3 4 -0.1801 0.456 0.3913 94
95 Air Force 2 4 -0.1820 0.455 0.4847 44
96 Utah State 3 4 -0.1841 0.453 0.3873 96
97 Cincinnati 2 5 -0.2014 0.441 0.5129 34
98 Tulsa 2 5 -0.2216 0.426 0.4927 40
99 South Alabama 2 4 -0.2243 0.424 0.4423 61
100 LA-Lafayette 3 3 -0.2257 0.423 0.2743 122
101 Central Michigan 3 4 -0.2290 0.420 0.3424 107
102 Illinois 2 4 -0.2315 0.418 0.4351 66
103 Kent State 2 5 -0.2454 0.408 0.4689 55
104 UNLV 2 4 -0.2582 0.398 0.4084 82
105 Eastern Michigan 2 4 -0.2592 0.398 0.4075 84
106 Missouri 1 5 -0.2616 0.396 0.5718 10
107 Temple 3 4 -0.2672 0.392 0.3042 116
108 LA-Monroe 3 3 -0.2807 0.382 0.2193 128
109 Hawaii 3 4 -0.2824 0.380 0.2891 120
110 Oregon State 1 6 -0.3107 0.359 0.5465 19
111 Old Dominion 2 4 -0.3171 0.355 0.3496 105
112 Ball State 2 4 -0.3209 0.352 0.3457 106
113 BYU 1 6 -0.3323 0.343 0.5249 26
114 North Carolina 1 6 -0.3328 0.343 0.5244 27
115 Connecticut 2 4 -0.3459 0.333 0.3208 113
116 Idaho 2 4 -0.3587 0.324 0.3080 115
117 Miami-OH 2 5 -0.3904 0.300 0.3239 111
118 Kansas 1 5 -0.4070 0.288 0.4263 71
119 Other 9 82 -0.4091 0.286 0.4920 41
120 Nevada 1 6 -0.4209 0.278 0.4363 65
121 Rice 1 5 -0.4391 0.264 0.3943 91
122 San Jose State 1 7 -0.4428 0.261 0.4322 68
123 East Carolina 1 6 -0.4501 0.256 0.4071 85
124 Baylor 0 6 -0.4544 0.253 0.5456 20
125 Bowling Green 1 6 -0.4645 0.245 0.3927 92
126 Texas State 1 6 -0.5343 0.193 0.3228 112
127 Georgia Southern 0 5 -0.5686 0.168 0.4314 70
128 UTEP 0 7 -0.5863 0.155 0.4137 78
129 Coastal Carolina 1 5 -0.6005 0.144 0.2328 127
130 Charlotte 0 7 -0.6852 0.081 0.3148 114
131 Massachusetts 0 6 -0.7947 0.000 0.2053 129

The bowl matchups if the season ended today? (with a little projection for mega-conferences)

  • The top 4 is simple.  TCU, Alabama, Penn State, Miami-FL
  • The other automatic bids include the Pac-12 leader (#11 USC) and the Group of Five rep (#17 Central Florida – San Diego State is higher ranked but not leading the Mountain West)
  • Orange Bowl is ACC vs Notre Dame, SEC or Big Ten.  Going by straight rankings Clemson vs Georgia
  • That leaves four more teams to place into bowls.  Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan are the four teams by ranking.  That said, it is unlikely all four teams joined Penn State here, we drop Michigan and promote Oklahoma here.
  • Using these matchups?
    • Sugar Bowl: TCU v Miami-FL
    • Rose Bowl: Alabama v Penn State
    • Orange Bowl: Clemson v Georgia
    • Fiesta Bowl: USC v Ohio State
    • Cotton Bowl: Michigan State v Oklahoma
    • Peach Bowl: Wisconsin v Central Florida

2017 College Football Rankings #2

(Note: This does not include the results of Wednesday or Thursday’s Games)

 

Entering last week, defending champions Clemson had not had a huge test yet – or at least something which had that look by the model.  However, with Auburn and Louisville gaining strength and Clemson’s wipeout of Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, the Tigers are back where you’d expect them.  Meanwhile, Alabama keeps rolling – although it is still inconclusive as to whether they have beaten anybody good yet.  Last week’s #1 Central Florida, did nothing wrong – it’s just that teams passed them.  In particular, TCU – the other team with two high quality road scalps, ascends to the top.

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 TCU 4 0 0.5720 1.000 0.5720 7
2 Clemson 5 0 0.5277 0.967 0.5277 17
3 Oklahoma 4 0 0.5212 0.962 0.5212 18
4 Michigan 4 0 0.5209 0.962 0.5209 19
5 Alabama 5 0 0.5189 0.960 0.5189 21
6 Georgia 5 0 0.5159 0.958 0.5159 22
7 San Diego State 5 0 0.4601 0.916 0.4601 41
8 Navy 4 0 0.4554 0.912 0.4554 47
9 UCF 3 0 0.4415 0.902 0.4415 56
10 Penn State 5 0 0.4270 0.891 0.4270 62
11 Miami-FL 3 0 0.3939 0.866 0.3939 83
12 Maryland 3 1 0.3806 0.856 0.6306 3
13 Washington 5 0 0.3759 0.853 0.3759 90
14 Ohio State 4 1 0.3644 0.844 0.5644 8
15 Oklahoma State 4 1 0.3588 0.840 0.5588 9
16 USC 4 1 0.3470 0.831 0.5470 10
17 Notre Dame 4 1 0.3449 0.830 0.5449 11
18 Wisconsin 4 0 0.3433 0.828 0.3433 99
19 Florida 3 1 0.2917 0.790 0.5417 13
20 Washington State 5 0 0.2917 0.790 0.2917 116
21 Wake Forest 4 1 0.2585 0.765 0.4585 43
22 Louisville 4 1 0.2581 0.764 0.4581 44
23 Utah 4 0 0.2546 0.762 0.2546 123
24 UTSA 3 0 0.2514 0.759 0.2514 124
25 Texas Tech 3 1 0.2473 0.756 0.4973 31
26 Michigan State 3 1 0.2328 0.746 0.4828 36
27 NC State 4 1 0.2308 0.744 0.4308 60
28 Duke 4 1 0.2127 0.730 0.4127 73
29 Oregon 4 1 0.2088 0.727 0.4088 76
30 Troy 4 1 0.1970 0.719 0.3970 79
31 SMU 4 1 0.1941 0.716 0.3941 82
32 Auburn 4 1 0.1804 0.706 0.3804 87
33 Kentucky 4 1 0.1776 0.704 0.3776 88
34 Iowa 3 2 0.1731 0.701 0.5731 6
35 Marshall 3 1 0.1728 0.700 0.4228 66
36 Memphis 3 1 0.1454 0.680 0.3954 81
37 South Florida 5 0 0.1419 0.677 0.1419 131
38 Virginia Tech 4 1 0.1344 0.672 0.3344 106
39 Houston 3 1 0.1340 0.671 0.3840 85
40 Texas A&M 4 1 0.1331 0.671 0.3331 107
41 Toledo 3 1 0.1266 0.666 0.3766 89
42 Minnesota 3 1 0.1202 0.661 0.3702 93
43 Indiana 2 2 0.1134 0.656 0.6134 4
44 Mississippi State 3 2 0.1111 0.654 0.5111 25
45 Florida State 1 2 0.1070 0.651 0.7736 1
46 Vanderbilt 3 2 0.0963 0.643 0.4963 34
47 Ohio 4 1 0.0934 0.641 0.2934 115
48 Virginia 3 1 0.0923 0.640 0.3423 100
49 Stanford 3 2 0.0813 0.632 0.4813 37
50 California 3 2 0.0797 0.631 0.4797 38
51 Nebraska 3 2 0.0595 0.615 0.4595 42
52 Tennessee 3 2 0.0490 0.608 0.4490 49
53 Georgia Tech 3 1 0.0471 0.606 0.2971 113
54 Texas 2 2 0.0448 0.604 0.5448 12
55 North Texas 3 2 0.0440 0.604 0.4440 52
56 FIU 3 1 0.0392 0.600 0.2892 117
57 UCLA 3 2 0.0372 0.599 0.4372 58
58 Boston College 2 3 0.0340 0.596 0.6340 2
59 South Carolina 3 2 0.0223 0.588 0.4223 67
60 Fresno State 2 2 0.0190 0.585 0.5190 20
61 Kansas State 3 1 0.0166 0.583 0.2666 120
62 Army 3 2 0.0134 0.581 0.4134 72
63 Colorado 3 2 0.0125 0.580 0.4125 74
64 Tulane 2 2 0.0106 0.579 0.5106 26
65 Western Michigan 3 2 0.0014 0.572 0.4014 77
66 Purdue 2 2 0.0012 0.572 0.5012 29
67 Buffalo 3 2 -0.0007 0.570 0.3993 78
68 Colorado State 3 2 -0.0039 0.568 0.3961 80
69 New Mexico 3 2 -0.0126 0.561 0.3874 84
70 West Virginia 3 1 -0.0150 0.560 0.2350 128
71 Utah State 3 2 -0.0169 0.558 0.3831 86
72 Arizona State 2 3 -0.0268 0.551 0.5732 5
73 Ole Miss 2 2 -0.0322 0.547 0.4678 39
74 Northern Illinois 2 2 -0.0376 0.543 0.4624 40
75 Arkansas 2 2 -0.0473 0.535 0.4527 48
76 Wyoming 3 2 -0.0499 0.533 0.3501 95
77 Boise State 2 2 -0.0516 0.532 0.4484 50
78 Louisiana Tech 3 2 -0.0538 0.530 0.3462 97
79 Appalachian State 2 2 -0.0581 0.527 0.4419 55
80 LSU 3 2 -0.0598 0.526 0.3402 102
81 Iowa State 2 2 -0.0673 0.520 0.4327 59
82 Northwestern 2 2 -0.0800 0.511 0.4200 68
83 Cincinnati 2 3 -0.0898 0.503 0.5102 27
84 Pittsburgh 2 3 -0.1035 0.493 0.4965 33
85 Illinois 2 2 -0.1257 0.476 0.3743 92
86 MTSU 2 3 -0.1529 0.456 0.4471 51
87 Eastern Michigan 2 2 -0.1541 0.455 0.3459 98
88 New Mexico State 2 3 -0.1564 0.453 0.4436 53
89 Florida Atlantic 2 3 -0.1572 0.453 0.4428 54
90 Idaho 2 2 -0.1607 0.450 0.3393 103
91 Arkansas State 1 2 -0.1699 0.443 0.4968 32
92 UNLV 2 2 -0.1719 0.442 0.3281 108
93 Miami-OH 2 3 -0.1751 0.439 0.4249 63
94 Temple 2 3 -0.1805 0.435 0.4195 69
95 Akron 2 3 -0.1859 0.431 0.4141 71
96 Old Dominion 2 2 -0.1983 0.422 0.3017 112
97 Southern Miss 2 2 -0.2295 0.399 0.2705 119
98 UAB 2 2 -0.2377 0.392 0.2623 122
99 Air Force 1 3 -0.2414 0.390 0.5086 28
100 Arizona 2 2 -0.2529 0.381 0.2471 125
101 Hawaii 2 3 -0.2535 0.381 0.3465 96
102 Oregon State 1 4 -0.2622 0.374 0.5378 14
103 Ball State 2 3 -0.2622 0.374 0.3378 104
104 Western Kentucky 2 2 -0.2622 0.374 0.2378 127
105 Central Michigan 2 3 -0.2623 0.374 0.3377 105
106 Rutgers 1 4 -0.2665 0.371 0.5335 15
107 Kent State 1 4 -0.2698 0.368 0.5302 16
108 LA-Monroe 2 2 -0.2703 0.368 0.2297 129
109 Syracuse 2 3 -0.2814 0.360 0.3186 110
110 Tulsa 1 4 -0.3112 0.337 0.4888 35
111 Missouri 1 3 -0.3268 0.326 0.4232 65
112 North Carolina 1 4 -0.3430 0.313 0.4570 46
113 BYU 1 4 -0.3753 0.289 0.4247 64
114 South Alabama 1 4 -0.3846 0.282 0.4154 70
115 Other 9 81 -0.3882 0.280 0.5118 24
116 Texas State 1 4 -0.3895 0.279 0.4105 75
117 Georgia State 1 2 -0.3901 0.278 0.2766 118
118 San Jose State 1 5 -0.3955 0.274 0.4379 57
119 Rice 1 4 -0.4245 0.252 0.3755 91
120 Connecticut 1 3 -0.4288 0.249 0.3212 109
121 LA-Lafayette 1 3 -0.4413 0.240 0.3087 111
122 East Carolina 1 4 -0.4594 0.226 0.3406 101
123 Kansas 1 3 -0.4841 0.208 0.2659 121
124 Georgia Southern 0 3 -0.4858 0.206 0.5142 23
125 Baylor 0 5 -0.4999 0.196 0.5001 30
126 UTEP 0 5 -0.5429 0.163 0.4571 45
127 Coastal Carolina 1 3 -0.5652 0.147 0.1848 130
128 Nevada 0 5 -0.5699 0.143 0.4301 61
129 Bowling Green 0 5 -0.6371 0.093 0.3629 94
130 Charlotte 0 5 -0.7040 0.043 0.2960 114
131 Massachusetts 0 6 -0.7607 0.000 0.2393 126

Given these rankings, and the reality of conference champions and such – who are the Final Four?

  • Well, let’s assume that you’d need a very good reason to pass over a conference champ – and four of the Top 5 are from different conferences – TCU, Clemson, Michigan and Alabama get the playoff slots.  We have a TCU/Alabama Sugar Bowl and a Clemson/Michigan Rose Bowl.
  • The Orange Bowl guarantees an ACC team – so Miami-FL is next team up.  They play either an SEC team, a Big Ten team or Notre Dame.  So Georgia goes here.
  • Washington gets the Pac-12’s automatic bid here, while San Diego State is the automatic Group of 5 rep.
  • The other 4 at-large positions?  Oklahoma, Navy, Penn State and Maryland.  It is unlikely Navy AND UCF would get spots since they are in the same conference and would end up playing each other at some point.
  • The Bowls if the season ended today?
    • SUGAR BOWL (National Semifinal): TCU vs Alabama
    • ROSE BOWL (National Semifinal): Clemson v Michigan
    • ORANGE BOWL: Miami-FL vs Georgia
    • COTTON BOWL: Oklahoma v Penn State
    • PEACH BOWL:  Maryland v Navy
    • FIESTA BOWL: Washington v San Diego State

2017 College Football Rankings #1

(Note: This does not include the results of yesterday’s 17-7 win by Texas at Iowa State)

Finally, after four weeks of football, and a lot of schedule reshuffling due to the devastating hurricanes in the South. (A list of ways to pitch in to help that horrific situation in Puerto Rico can be found here).  Among the more trivial results of this delay was a long time before each of the college teams played twice – thus allowing for a legitimate strength of schedule metric.  Of course, as we learn about the teams, the SoS numbers will get cleaner.  Here is a further explainer of the method.  So what does the first ranking hold for us?  Voila!

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 UCF 2 0 0.5476 1.000 0.5476 7
2 Michigan 4 0 0.5460 0.999 0.5460 8
3 Oklahoma 4 0 0.5238 0.982 0.5238 14
4 TCU 4 0 0.5228 0.981 0.5228 15
5 Alabama 4 0 0.5172 0.977 0.5172 19
6 Georgia 4 0 0.5122 0.973 0.5122 20
7 San Diego State 4 0 0.5009 0.964 0.5009 26
8 USC 4 0 0.4997 0.963 0.4997 27
9 Navy 3 0 0.4790 0.948 0.4790 32
10 Clemson 4 0 0.4439 0.921 0.4439 47
11 Texas Tech 3 0 0.4329 0.912 0.4329 53
12 Washington 4 0 0.4282 0.909 0.4282 56
13 Wake Forest 4 0 0.4223 0.904 0.4223 60
14 Wisconsin 3 0 0.3871 0.877 0.3871 75
15 Penn State 4 0 0.3766 0.869 0.3766 81
16 Duke 4 0 0.3545 0.853 0.3545 89
17 UTSA 3 0 0.3233 0.829 0.3233 97
18 Ohio State 3 1 0.3068 0.816 0.5568 6
19 Utah 4 0 0.2979 0.809 0.2979 108
20 Minnesota 3 0 0.2938 0.806 0.2938 111
21 Louisville 3 1 0.2829 0.798 0.5329 10
22 Maryland 2 1 0.2746 0.792 0.6080 4
23 Notre Dame 3 1 0.2672 0.786 0.5172 18
24 Memphis 3 0 0.2440 0.768 0.2440 124
25 Florida 2 1 0.2418 0.766 0.5751 5
26 Miami-FL 2 0 0.2283 0.756 0.2283 126
27 Iowa 3 1 0.2241 0.753 0.4741 33
28 Virginia Tech 4 0 0.2224 0.752 0.2224 127
29 Oklahoma State 3 1 0.2107 0.743 0.4607 39
30 Mississippi State 3 1 0.2076 0.740 0.4576 40
31 South Florida 4 0 0.2037 0.737 0.2037 128
32 Washington State 4 0 0.2027 0.737 0.2027 129
33 California 3 1 0.1865 0.724 0.4365 50
34 SMU 3 1 0.1840 0.722 0.4340 52
35 Vanderbilt 3 1 0.1793 0.719 0.4293 54
36 Kentucky 3 1 0.1679 0.710 0.4179 64
37 NC State 3 1 0.1522 0.698 0.4022 69
38 Indiana 2 1 0.1507 0.697 0.4840 31
39 Oregon 3 1 0.1478 0.695 0.3978 70
40 Colorado 3 1 0.1437 0.692 0.3937 72
41 FIU 2 1 0.1382 0.687 0.4715 34
42 South Carolina 3 1 0.1378 0.687 0.3878 74
43 LSU 3 1 0.1278 0.679 0.3778 79
44 Troy 3 1 0.1053 0.662 0.3553 88
45 Houston 2 1 0.1050 0.662 0.4383 49
46 Ohio 3 1 0.0917 0.652 0.3417 91
47 Auburn 3 1 0.0807 0.643 0.3307 94
48 Tennessee 3 1 0.0682 0.634 0.3182 100
49 Toledo 3 1 0.0676 0.633 0.3176 101
50 Virginia 3 1 0.0627 0.630 0.3127 103
51 Texas A&M 3 1 0.0599 0.628 0.3099 105
52 Northern Illinois 2 1 0.0503 0.620 0.3836 77
53 Michigan State 2 1 0.0444 0.616 0.3777 80
54 Marshall 2 1 0.0430 0.615 0.3763 82
55 Illinois 2 1 0.0392 0.612 0.3726 84
56 Iowa State 2 1 0.0372 0.610 0.3706 85
57 Cincinnati 2 2 0.0349 0.608 0.5349 9
58 Tulane 2 2 0.0261 0.602 0.5261 13
59 Arizona State 2 2 0.0219 0.598 0.5219 16
60 Army 2 2 0.0100 0.589 0.5100 22
61 Stanford 2 2 0.0085 0.588 0.5085 23
62 Purdue 2 2 0.0081 0.588 0.5081 24
63 West Virginia 3 1 -0.0028 0.580 0.2472 122
64 Ole Miss 2 1 -0.0085 0.575 0.3248 96
65 Appalachian State 2 2 -0.0290 0.560 0.4710 35
66 Northwestern 2 1 -0.0377 0.553 0.2956 110
67 Utah State 2 2 -0.0382 0.553 0.4618 38
68 Southern Miss 2 1 -0.0427 0.549 0.2906 114
69 Nebraska 2 2 -0.0430 0.549 0.4570 41
70 Buffalo 2 2 -0.0458 0.547 0.4542 43
71 Eastern Michigan 2 1 -0.0480 0.545 0.2854 116
72 Fresno State 1 2 -0.0550 0.540 0.6117 3
73 North Texas 2 2 -0.0591 0.537 0.4409 48
74 Georgia Tech 2 1 -0.0674 0.530 0.2659 120
75 Colorado State 2 2 -0.0743 0.525 0.4257 57
76 Boston College 1 3 -0.0751 0.524 0.6749 1
77 Louisiana Tech 2 2 -0.0786 0.522 0.4214 61
78 UCLA 2 2 -0.0808 0.520 0.4192 62
79 Western Michigan 2 2 -0.0820 0.519 0.4180 63
80 Kansas State 2 1 -0.0865 0.516 0.2469 123
81 MTSU 2 2 -0.0896 0.513 0.4104 66
82 Temple 2 2 -0.1044 0.502 0.3956 71
83 Wyoming 2 2 -0.1115 0.497 0.3885 73
84 Boise State 2 2 -0.1139 0.495 0.3861 76
85 New Mexico State 2 2 -0.1363 0.478 0.3637 87
86 New Mexico 2 2 -0.1465 0.470 0.3535 90
87 Air Force 1 2 -0.1565 0.462 0.5101 21
88 Texas 1 2 -0.1610 0.459 0.5057 25
89 Idaho 2 2 -0.1677 0.454 0.3323 93
90 Miami-OH 2 2 -0.1724 0.450 0.3276 95
91 Old Dominion 2 2 -0.1795 0.445 0.3205 99
92 Arkansas State 1 2 -0.1822 0.443 0.4845 30
93 Ball State 2 2 -0.1895 0.437 0.3105 104
94 Hawaii 2 2 -0.1979 0.431 0.3021 106
95 Arizona 2 2 -0.2031 0.427 0.2969 109
96 Western Kentucky 2 2 -0.2064 0.424 0.2936 112
97 Central Michigan 2 2 -0.2077 0.423 0.2923 113
98 UAB 2 2 -0.2183 0.415 0.2817 117
99 Arkansas 1 2 -0.2186 0.415 0.4480 46
100 Kent State 1 3 -0.2201 0.414 0.5299 11
101 Florida Atlantic 1 3 -0.2235 0.411 0.5265 12
102 Syracuse 2 2 -0.2271 0.408 0.2729 119
103 Pittsburgh 1 3 -0.2294 0.407 0.5206 17
104 UNLV 1 2 -0.2620 0.382 0.4047 68
105 Akron 1 3 -0.2932 0.358 0.4568 42
106 Oregon State 1 3 -0.2982 0.354 0.4518 44
107 North Carolina 1 3 -0.3003 0.352 0.4497 45
108 BYU 1 3 -0.3137 0.342 0.4363 51
109 Rice 1 3 -0.3209 0.337 0.4291 55
110 Rutgers 1 3 -0.3255 0.333 0.4245 58
111 Texas State 1 3 -0.3329 0.328 0.4171 65
112 Florida State 0 2 -0.3401 0.322 0.6599 2
113 Tulsa 1 3 -0.3408 0.321 0.4092 67
114 LA-Monroe 1 2 -0.3444 0.319 0.3222 98
115 Missouri 1 3 -0.3665 0.302 0.3835 78
116 South Alabama 1 3 -0.3760 0.295 0.3740 83
117 San Jose State 1 4 -0.3773 0.294 0.4227 59
118 Other 9 80 -0.4048 0.273 0.4941 28
119 Georgia State 1 2 -0.4137 0.266 0.2530 121
120 LA-Lafayette 1 3 -0.4346 0.250 0.3154 102
121 East Carolina 1 3 -0.4496 0.238 0.3004 107
122 Kansas 1 3 -0.4615 0.229 0.2885 115
123 Connecticut 1 2 -0.4666 0.225 0.2001 130
124 Coastal Carolina 1 2 -0.5056 0.196 0.1611 131
125 Baylor 0 4 -0.5127 0.190 0.4873 29
126 Georgia Southern 0 3 -0.5338 0.174 0.4662 36
127 UTEP 0 4 -0.5378 0.171 0.4622 37
128 Bowling Green 0 4 -0.6361 0.096 0.3639 86
129 Nevada 0 4 -0.6665 0.073 0.3335 92
130 Charlotte 0 4 -0.7245 0.028 0.2755 118
131 Massachusetts 0 5 -0.7618 0.000 0.2382 125

Well, clearly we saw THAT coming!  How is Central Florida #1 so far?  Well, as I will probably note a million times over the season, the rankings only know about this season.  The modeling does not know preseason rank – or whether a team should be good?  So Central Florida, with a big win at Maryland, who was unbeaten against the rest of its schedule, which included a win at Texas – has done enough to claim the top spot for now.  Now, as the season goes along, we will know more about how good the Maryland win really WAS – and Central Florida will continue to have games to win.  In reality, they probably do not have enough schedule power in the future to stay here.  But for now, yippee!!

 

2017 NCAA Bradley Terry Bracket #14 (March 11 – CHAMP WEEK 4)

BASED ON CURRENT RATINGS:  WEST v SOUTH, EAST v MIDWEST

WEST REGION (San Jose, CA)

  • (1) Gonzaga v (16) TEXAS SOUTHERN/UC-DAVIS
  • (8) Oklahoma State v (9) Northwestern
  • (4) Virginia v (13) EAST TENNESSEE STATE
  • (5) Saint Mary’s v (12) VERMONT
  • (2) DUKE v (15) KENT STATE
  • (7) Butler v (10) Michigan State
  • (3) Baylor v (14) NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  • (6) WICHITA STATE v (11) Dayton

EAST REGION (New York, NY)

  • (1) Villanova v (16) SOUTH DAKOTA STATE/MOUNT SAINT MARY’S
  • (8) Arkansas v (9) Wake Forest
  • (4) Florida State v (13) PRINCETON
  • (5) IOWA STATE v (12) NEVADA
  • (2) North Carolina v (15) Troy
  • (7) Michigan v (10) Kansas State
  • (3) Oregon v (14) IONA
  • (6) Creighton v (11) VCU

MIDWEST REGION (Kansas City, MO)

  • (1) Kansas v (16) NC CENTRAL
  • (8) Maryland v (9) Seton Hall
  • (4) Florida v (13) NEW MEXICO STATE
  • (5) Notre Dame v (12) UNC-WILMINGTON
  • (2) Arizona v (15) NORTH DAKOTA
  • (7) Minnesota v (10) South Carolina
  • (3) Louisville v (14) FLORIDA GULF COAST
  • (6) Cincinnati v (11) Clemson/Indiana

SOUTH REGION (Memphis, TN)

  • (1) Kentucky v (16) JACKSONVILLE STATE
  • (8) Miami-FL v (9) Xavier
  • (4) Purdue v (13) WINTHROP
  • (5) SMU v (12) MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  • (2) UCLA v (15) NEW ORLEANS
  • (7) Virginia Tech v (10) Marquette
  • (3) West Virginia v (14) BUCKNELL
  • (6) Wisconsin v (11) USC/Vanderbilt

Last four byes: South Carolina, Xavier, Michigan State, Indiana

Last four in: Clemson, USC, Vanderbilt, Indiana

First four out: Providence, TCU, Rhode Island, Georgia

Next four out: Syracuse, Illinois, California, Illinois State

Four more: Iowa, Texas Tech, Alabama, Pittsburgh

2017 NCAA Bradley Terry Bracket #13 (March 7 – CHAMP WEEK 3)

BASED ON CURRENT RATINGS:  WEST v SOUTH, EAST v MIDWEST

WEST REGION (San Jose, CA)

  • (1) Gonzaga v (16) NC Central/Texas Southern
  • (8) Wake Forest v (9) South Carolina
  • (4) Florida State v (13) EAST TENNESSEE STATE
  • (5) SMU v (12) Vermont
  • (2) Louisville v (15) IONA
  • (7) Creighton v (10) Clemson
  • (3) West Virginia v (14) FLORIDA GULF COAST
  • (6) Wisconsin v (11) UNC-WILMINGTON

EAST REGION (New York, NY)

  • (1) Villanova v (16) SOUTH DAKOTA STATE/MOUNT SAINT MARY’S
  • (8) Michigan v (9) Kansas State
  • (4) Virginia v (13) Texas-Arlington
  • (5) Saint Mary’s v (12) Nevada
  • (2) Baylor v (15) NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  • (7) Virginia Tech v (10) Seton Hall
  • (3) Florida v (14) Akron
  • (6) WICHITA STATE v (11) Michigan State

MIDWEST REGION (Kansas City, MO)

  • (1) Kansas v (16) New Orleans
  • (8) Minnesota v (9) Marquette
  • (4) Oregon v (13) Princeton
  • (5) Notre Dame v (12) Middle Tennessee
  • (2) North Carolina v (15) Eastern Washington
  • (7) Maryland v (10) Arkansas
  • (3) Arizona v (14) Bucknell
  • (6) Iowa State v (11) Xavier

SOUTH REGION (Memphis, TN)

  • (1) UCLA v (16) JACKSONVILLE STATE
  • (8) Oklahoma State v (9) Northwestern
  • (4) Duke v (13) WINTHROP
  • (5) Cincinnati v (12) Providence/VCU
  • (2) Kentucky v (15) UC-Irvine
  • (7) Miami-FL v (10) Dayton
  • (3) Purdue v (14) New Mexico State
  • (6) Butler v (11) USC/Indiana

Last four byes: Kansas State, Clemson, Xavier, Michigan State

Last four in: USC, Providence, VCU, Indiana

First four out: Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Illinois

Next four out: Georgia, Iowa, TCU, Rhode Island

Four more: Illinois State, California, Pittsburgh, Utah

2017 NCAA Bradley Terry Bracket #12 (March 6 – CHAMP WEEK 2)

BASED ON CURRENT RATINGS:  WEST v SOUTH, EAST v MIDWEST

WEST REGION (San Jose, CA)

  • (1) Gonzaga v (16) NC Central/Texas Southern
  • (8) Michigan v (9) South Carolina
  • (4) Florida State v (13) EAST TENNESSEE STATE
  • (5) SMU v (12) Vermont
  • (2) Louisville v (15) IONA
  • (7) Creighton v (10) Dayton
  • (3) Florida v (14) FLORIDA GULF COAST
  • (6) Iowa State v (11) Michigan State

EAST REGION (New York, NY)

  • (1) Villanova v (16) New Orleans/Mount Saint Mary’s
  • (8) Oklahoma State v (9) Northwestern
  • (4) Virginia v (13) Texas-Arlington
  • (5) Saint Mary’s v (12) Middle Tennessee State
  • (2) Baylor v (15) Northern Kentucky
  • (7) Virginia Tech v (10) Arkansas
  • (3) Arizona v (14) Akron
  • (6) WICHITA STATE v (11) Clemson

MIDWEST REGION (Kansas City, MO)

  • (1) Kansas v (16) JACKSONVILLE STATE
  • (8) Minnesota v (9) Marquette
  • (4) Oregon v (13) Princeton
  • (5) Notre Dame v (12) Nevada
  • (2) North Carolina v (15) Omaha
  • (7) Wake Forest v (10) Seton Hall
  • (3) West Virginia v (14) Bucknell
  • (6) Wisconsin v (11) USC/Indiana

SOUTH REGION (Memphis, TN)

  • (1) UCLA v (16) UC-Irvine
  • (8) Maryland v (9) Kansas State
  • (4) Duke v (13) WINTHROP
  • (5) Cincinnati v (12) Providence/VCU
  • (2) Kentucky v (15) Eastern Washington
  • (7) Miami-FL v (10) Xavier
  • (3) Purdue v (14) New Mexico State
  • (6) Butler v (11) UNC-WILMINGTON

Last four byes: Kansas State, Baylor, Michigan State, Clemson

Last four in: USC, Providence, VCU, Indiana

First four out: Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Illinois

Next four out: Georgia, Iowa, TCU, Rhode Island

Four more: Illinois State, California, Utah, Houston