Tag: NCAA

2018 NCAA Bradley Terry Bracket #3 (thru January 15)

BASED ON CURRENT RATINGS:  EAST v WEST, SOUTH v MIDWEST

EAST (BOSTON, MA)

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Robert Morris/NC A&T
  • (8) Louisville v (9) Texas
  • (4) Michigan State v (13) Missouri State
  • (5) Tennessee v (12) Buffalo
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) Wright State
  • (7) Kentucky v (10) Boise State
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) Montana
  • (6) Creighton v (11) Maryland

SOUTH (Atlanta, GA)

  • (1) Virginia v (16) Princeton/TX Southern
  • (8) Arkansas v (9) Houston
  • (4) Xavier v (13) East Tennessee State
  • (5) Arizona State v (12) South Dakota State
  • (2) Auburn v (15) Towson
  • (7) Rhode Island v (10) Notre Dame
  • (3) Kansas v (14) UC-Davis
  • (6) Nevada v (11) LSU/Kansas State

MIDWEST (Omaha, NE)

  • (1) Purdue v (16) Radford
  • (8) Florida State v (9) Texas A&M
  • (4) Gonzaga v (13) Louisiana-Lafayette
  • (5) Seton Hall v (12) Middle Tennessee
  • (2) Duke v (15) Bucknell
  • (7) Arizona v (10) Butler
  • (3) Wichita State v (14) Stephen F Austin
  • (6) TCU v (11) Baylor

WEST (Los Angeles, CA)

  • (1) Texas Tech v (16) Lipscomb
  • (8) Saint Mary’s v (9) Miami-FL
  • (4) Cincinnati v (13) Murray State
  • (5) Michigan v (12) New Mexico State
  • (2) Oklahoma v (15) Rider
  • (7) Florida v (10) Marquette
  • (3) Clemson v (14) Vermont
  • (6) Ohio State v (11) Missouri/Western Kentucky

LAST FOUR BYES: Houston, Boise State, Baylor, Maryland

LAST FOUR IN: Missouri, LSU, Kansas State, Western Kentucky

FIRST FOUR OUT: Alabama, NC State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

NEXT FOUR OUT: Georgia, Boston College, UCLA, Providence

FOUR MORE: Oklahoma State, Saint Bonaventure, San Diego State, USC

 

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2018 NCAA Bradley Terry Bracket #2 (thru January 7)

BASED ON CURRENT RATINGS:  MIDWEST v WEST, SOUTH v EAST

MIDWEST (Omaha, NE)

  • (1) Texas Tech v (16) Robert Morris/Texas Southern
  • (8) Kentucky v (9) Rhode Island
  • (4) North Carolina v (13) LA-Lafayette
  • (5) Gonzaga v (12) Missouri State
  • (2) Arizona State v (15) William and Mary
  • (7) Ohio State v (10) Georgia
  • (3) Duke v (14) Stephen F Austin
  • (6) Nevada v (11) Houston

SOUTH (Atlanta, GA)

  • (1) Virginia v (16) Princeton/North Carolina A&T
  • (8) Arizona v (9) Saint Mary’s
  • (4) Kansas v (13) Murray State
  • (5) Xavier v (12) Missouri
  • (2) Oklahoma v (15) Northern Kentucky
  • (7) Michigan v (10) Marquette
  • (3) Clemson v (14) UC-Santa Barbara
  • (6) Florida v (11) South Dakota State

EAST (Boston, MA)

  • (1) Villanova v (16) Bucknell
  • (8) Texas A&M v (9) Baylor
  • (4) Wichita State v (13) Buffalo
  • (5) TCU v (12) New Mexico State
  • (2) Purdue v (15) Portland State
  • (7) Miami-FL v (10) Butler
  • (3) Cincinnati v (14) Vermont
  • (6) Tennessee v (11) Kansas State/Boise State

WEST (Los Angeles, CA)

  • (1) West Virginia v (16) Radford
  • (8) Arkansas v (9) Maryland
  • (4) Seton Hall v (13) East Tennessee State
  • (5) Florida State v (12) Western Kentucky
  • (2) Michigan State v (15) Rider
  • (7) Notre Dame v (10) Texas
  • (3) Auburn v (14) Lipscomb
  • (6) Creighton v (11) Oklahoma State/Louisville

Last four byes: Georgia, Marquette, Houston, Missouri

Last four in: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Boise State

First four out: San Diego State, UCLA, SMU, Central Florida

Next four out: Syracuse, LSU, Saint Bonaventure, Boston College

Four more: Virginia Tech, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Utah

2018 NCAA Bradley Terry Bracket #1 (thru January 1)

BASED ON CURRENT RATINGS:  WEST v SOUTH, MIDWEST v EAST

WEST REGION (Los Angeles, CA)

  • (1) Arizona State v (16) Robert Morris/Texas Southern
  • (8) Texas v (9) Maryland
  • (4) Wichita State v (13) South Dakota
  • (5) Clemson v (12) UC-Santa Barbara
  • (2) Purdue v (15) Portland State
  • (7) Nevada v (10) Baylor
  • (3) Xavier v (14) Ball State
  • (6) Gonzaga v (11) Missouri/Alabama

MIDWEST REGION (Omaha, NE)

  • (1) Michigan State v (16) Princeton/North Carolina A&T
  • (8) Syracuse v (9) Saint Mary’s
  • (4) Arkansas v (13) Belmont
  • (5) Florida State v (12) Kansas State
  • (2) Virginia v (15) Towson
  • (7) Auburn v (10) Houston
  • (3) Texas Tech v (14) Stephen F Austin
  • (6) Seton Hall v (11) Minnesota

EAST REGION (Boston, MA)

  • (1) Villanova v (16) UNC-Asheville
  • (8) Michigan v (9) Kentucky
  • (4) TCU v (13) Lipscomb
  • (5) Miami-FL v (12) Missouri State
  • (2) West Virginia v (15) Northern Kentucky
  • (7) Butler v (10) Rhode Island
  • (3) North Carolina v (14) East Tennessee
  • (6) Arizona v (11) Ohio State/Oklahoma State

SOUTH REGION (Atlanta, GA)

  • (1) Duke v (16) Rider
  • (8) Creighton v (9) SMU
  • (4) Kansas v (13) Vermont
  • (5) Tennessee v (12) Middle Tennessee
  • (2) Oklahoma v (15) Bucknell
  • (7) Saint Bonaventure v (10) Boise State
  • (3) Texas A&M v (14) Lousiana-Lafayette
  • (6) Cincinnati v (11) New Mexico State

Last four byes: Baylor, Houston, Minnesota, Kansas State

Last four in: Ohio State, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma State

First four out: Notre Dame, Utah, Florida, UCLA

Next four out: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Boston College

Four more: UNLV, Southern Cal, Central Florida, Saint John’s

2017 College Football Rankings #5

Well, Championship Week is here.  With Auburn’s stunning rout of Alabama – things have come into much clearer focus.  Here are the rankings – and some thoughts.

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Wisconsin 12 0 0.5681 1.000 0.5681 40
2 Clemson 11 1 0.5146 0.954 0.5980 25
3 Oklahoma 11 1 0.5110 0.951 0.5944 26
4 Miami-FL 10 1 0.4720 0.917 0.5630 42
5 Georgia 11 1 0.4709 0.916 0.5542 46
6 Ohio State 10 2 0.4559 0.903 0.6226 12
7 Penn State 10 2 0.4430 0.892 0.6097 17
8 Alabama 11 1 0.4387 0.888 0.5220 59
9 Michigan State 9 3 0.4130 0.866 0.6630 5
10 UCF 11 0 0.4105 0.864 0.4105 91
11 Notre Dame 9 3 0.4060 0.860 0.6560 6
12 TCU 10 2 0.4026 0.857 0.5693 39
13 USC 10 2 0.4008 0.856 0.5675 41
14 Auburn 10 2 0.3855 0.843 0.5521 48
15 Northwestern 9 3 0.3568 0.818 0.6068 18
16 Oklahoma State 9 3 0.3490 0.811 0.5990 23
17 Washington 10 2 0.3257 0.791 0.4923 66
18 Michigan 8 4 0.3177 0.784 0.6510 8
19 Memphis 10 1 0.3173 0.784 0.4082 93
20 Stanford 9 3 0.3092 0.777 0.5592 44
21 Virginia Tech 9 3 0.2872 0.758 0.5372 52
22 NC State 8 4 0.2847 0.756 0.6180 14
23 Washington State 9 3 0.2843 0.755 0.5343 54
24 LSU 9 3 0.2670 0.740 0.5170 61
25 Iowa 7 5 0.2607 0.735 0.6774 4
26 Louisville 8 4 0.2400 0.717 0.5733 36
27 Boston College 7 5 0.2370 0.714 0.6537 7
28 Toledo 10 2 0.2302 0.709 0.3968 97
29 San Diego State 10 2 0.2222 0.702 0.3889 101
30 Boise State 9 3 0.2208 0.700 0.4708 75
31 Wake Forest 7 5 0.2050 0.687 0.6217 13
32 Mississippi State 8 4 0.2025 0.685 0.5358 53
33 Iowa State 7 5 0.1978 0.681 0.6145 15
34 South Carolina 8 4 0.1915 0.675 0.5249 57
35 Fresno State 9 3 0.1665 0.654 0.4165 88
36 West Virginia 7 5 0.1571 0.646 0.5738 35
37 South Florida 9 2 0.1549 0.644 0.3367 114
38 Purdue 6 6 0.1457 0.636 0.6457 9
39 Arizona State 7 5 0.1437 0.634 0.5604 43
40 Florida State 5 6 0.1368 0.628 0.6823 3
41 Kansas State 7 5 0.1348 0.626 0.5515 50
42 Army 8 3 0.1241 0.617 0.3968 98
43 Texas A&M 7 5 0.1169 0.611 0.5336 55
44 North Texas 9 3 0.1155 0.610 0.3655 107
45 Florida Atlantic 9 3 0.1142 0.608 0.3642 108
46 Houston 7 4 0.1122 0.607 0.4758 71
47 Oregon 7 5 0.1111 0.606 0.5277 56
48 Troy 9 2 0.1097 0.605 0.2915 125
49 Texas Tech 6 6 0.1049 0.600 0.6049 21
50 Texas 6 6 0.1041 0.600 0.6041 22
51 Navy 6 5 0.1040 0.600 0.5586 45
52 Kentucky 7 5 0.0971 0.594 0.5137 62
53 UCLA 6 6 0.0876 0.586 0.5876 32
54 Northern Illinois 8 4 0.0846 0.583 0.4179 87
55 Duke 6 6 0.0812 0.580 0.5812 33
56 Virginia 6 6 0.0778 0.577 0.5778 34
57 Missouri 7 5 0.0747 0.574 0.4914 67
58 Central Michigan 8 4 0.0713 0.572 0.4047 94
59 SMU 7 5 0.0620 0.564 0.4787 70
60 Georgia Tech 5 6 0.0602 0.562 0.6057 20
61 Maryland 4 8 0.0597 0.562 0.7264 1
62 Arizona 7 5 0.0556 0.558 0.4723 73
63 Ohio 8 4 0.0518 0.555 0.3851 103
64 Indiana 5 7 0.0434 0.547 0.6267 11
65 Akron 7 5 0.0337 0.539 0.4503 83
66 Nebraska 4 8 0.0322 0.538 0.6989 2
67 Utah 6 6 0.0247 0.531 0.5247 58
68 Ole Miss 6 6 0.0112 0.520 0.5112 63
69 Minnesota 5 7 0.0080 0.517 0.5913 29
70 Pittsburgh 5 7 0.0053 0.515 0.5887 31
71 Wyoming 7 5 -0.0143 0.498 0.4024 95
72 Arkansas State 7 3 -0.0184 0.494 0.2816 127
73 FIU 7 4 -0.0293 0.485 0.3344 115
74 California 5 7 -0.0296 0.484 0.5537 47
75 Appalachian State 7 4 -0.0323 0.482 0.3313 116
76 Colorado State 7 5 -0.0352 0.480 0.3815 104
77 Rutgers 4 8 -0.0354 0.479 0.6313 10
78 Temple 6 6 -0.0483 0.468 0.4517 82
79 Southern Miss 8 4 -0.0529 0.464 0.2805 128
80 Vanderbilt 5 7 -0.0636 0.455 0.5197 60
81 Florida 4 7 -0.0650 0.454 0.5714 38
82 UAB 8 4 -0.0663 0.453 0.2671 131
83 Syracuse 4 8 -0.0685 0.451 0.5982 24
84 Colorado 5 7 -0.0736 0.447 0.5098 64
85 Western Michigan 6 6 -0.0793 0.442 0.4207 86
86 Utah State 6 6 -0.0881 0.434 0.4119 90
87 Marshall 7 5 -0.0904 0.432 0.3263 120
88 Arkansas 4 8 -0.0938 0.429 0.5728 37
89 Air Force 5 7 -0.1122 0.413 0.4711 74
90 Buffalo 6 6 -0.1127 0.413 0.3873 102
91 Tulane 5 7 -0.1196 0.407 0.4637 79
92 Georgia State 6 4 -0.1267 0.401 0.2733 129
93 Tennessee 4 8 -0.1271 0.400 0.5396 51
94 Eastern Michigan 5 7 -0.1530 0.378 0.4303 85
95 North Carolina 3 9 -0.1586 0.373 0.5914 28
96 MTSU 6 6 -0.1590 0.373 0.3410 113
97 Louisiana Tech 6 6 -0.1732 0.361 0.3268 118
98 UTSA 6 5 -0.1843 0.351 0.2703 130
99 Cincinnati 4 8 -0.1914 0.345 0.4752 72
100 UNLV 5 7 -0.2103 0.329 0.3731 105
101 Miami-OH 5 7 -0.2131 0.326 0.3702 106
102 Western Kentucky 6 6 -0.2174 0.322 0.2826 126
103 New Mexico State 5 6 -0.2189 0.321 0.3265 119
104 Illinois 2 10 -0.2216 0.319 0.6118 16
105 BYU 4 9 -0.2244 0.317 0.4679 77
106 Old Dominion 5 7 -0.2251 0.316 0.3583 110
107 LA-Lafayette 5 6 -0.2381 0.305 0.3074 122
108 Connecticut 3 9 -0.2629 0.283 0.4871 69
109 South Alabama 4 7 -0.2753 0.273 0.3611 109
110 East Carolina 3 9 -0.2821 0.267 0.4679 76
111 LA-Monroe 4 7 -0.2824 0.266 0.3540 112
112 Nevada 3 9 -0.2954 0.255 0.4546 81
113 Massachusetts 4 7 -0.3075 0.245 0.3289 117
114 Kansas 1 11 -0.3110 0.242 0.6057 19
115 New Mexico 3 9 -0.3146 0.239 0.4354 84
116 Oregon State 1 11 -0.3226 0.232 0.5940 27
117 Baylor 1 11 -0.3261 0.229 0.5906 30
118 Tulsa 2 10 -0.3376 0.219 0.4957 65
119 Kent State 2 10 -0.3454 0.212 0.4880 68
120 Hawaii 3 9 -0.3519 0.207 0.3981 96
121 Other 9 89 -0.3564 0.203 0.5518 49
122 Bowling Green 2 10 -0.3705 0.191 0.4629 80
123 San Jose State 2 11 -0.3786 0.183 0.4676 78
124 Ball State 2 10 -0.4203 0.148 0.4131 89
125 Idaho 3 8 -0.4218 0.146 0.3055 124
126 Georgia Southern 2 9 -0.4225 0.146 0.3957 99
127 Coastal Carolina 2 9 -0.5119 0.069 0.3063 123
128 Texas State 2 10 -0.5143 0.066 0.3190 121
129 Rice 1 11 -0.5231 0.059 0.3936 100
130 Charlotte 1 11 -0.5610 0.026 0.3557 111
131 UTEP 0 12 -0.5914 0.000 0.4086 92

Wisconsin ends the regular season as the only 12-0 team in the field. Now, simply winning the games is not enough reason to be #1 – but with Alabama sporting an unusually skimpy resume compared to years past … the Badgers have earned the opportunity. Clemson’s wins are better but their loss at Syracuse looks much worse.  Looking at the standings (and really I think you can only really deal with resume here), the endgame Final 4 is pretty clear.

  • THE SEC champ will make the Final Four – Georgia winning is pretty straightforward.  Despite Auburn’s #14 standing, they beat Georgia and that should push them into the Top 10 somewhere, and there are plenty of non-quantitative things in their favor. (winning the SEC, better wins)
  • The Big Ten champ will make the Final Four – Ohio State, Wisconsin.  This is pretty easy.  Now, I am not sure if Wisconsin would still warrant a Top 4 spot if they lost.  Given Ohio State’s actual ability as a team – I could justify it.
  • The ACC champ will make the Final Four – there are two Top-4 teams.  This was simple.
  • Alabama could make it – but yeah they want some chaos.  With a lot of bad luck with their scheduled opponents, Alabama’s typical excellent season was only against the 57th rated schedule in the country.  Yes, Alabama can only play who is on its schedule – but this year’s slate really played with the team’s margin for error.
  • The Big 12 champ could make it.  If it’s Oklahoma – then it’s obvious.  If it’s TCU – it is dicier, although TCU has had a wonderful season.  TCU does benefit though from what Alabama wishes it had – one more chance to hang a great result.

So, who will win the conferences?  Well – if we turn to the “adjusted scoring margins”- which I think is a better reflection of team quality – here is what we get. (team adjusted scoring margin rank in parentheses)

  • American: UCF (#13) over Memphis (#31)
  • ACC: Clemson (#4) over Miami-FL (#15)
  • Big 12: Oklahoma (#9) over TCU (#11)
  • Big Ten: Ohio State (#2) over Wisconsin (#3)
  • C-USA: Florida Atlantic (#43) over North Texas (#86)
  • MAC: Toledo (#40) over Akron (#88)
  • MWC: Boise State (#34) over Fresno State (#53)
  • Pac-12: Stanford (#18) over USC (#20)
  • SEC: Georgia (#5) over Auburn (#6)

Do I believe Georgia and Stanford win rematches like the numbers say they could?  I am a bit more skeptical.  But we know that winning twice is hard, and Stanford and Georgia are good teams.  For this exercise, I am inclined to pick Auburn and USC though.

Given this, here are the automatic bids to the Bowl Series

  • Clemson (ACC Champ, semifinals)
  • Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ, semifinals)
  • Ohio State (Big Ten Champ, semifinals)
  • Auburn (SEC Champ, semifinals)
  • USC (Pac-12 Champ)
  • UCF (Group of 5 champ)

So this sets up the National Semifinals – it is possible Ohio State and Auburn finish 3/4.  I would imagine though the committee would like to avoid 2 regular season rematches if possible.

  • Sugar Bowl: Clemson v Ohio State
  • Rose Bowl: Oklahoma v Auburn

The other bowls?  The Orange Bowl would take the best ACC team left, Miami, and the highest ranked Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame non-champ.  So, we are deciding between Alabama, Georgia and Wisconsin.  Now, I think the committee will go SEC – but I’d put Wisconsin here.

  • Orange Bowl: Miami-FL v Wisconsin

So this leaves us UCF, USC and four more teams.  Penn State, Alabama, Georgia seem obvious.  The hard one is Notre Dame or TCU.  If Oklahoma beats TCU, I think it might be hard to justify TCU over Notre Dame, given the yawning gaps in schedule strength.  Using this, the rest of the bowls line up thusly:

  • Cotton Bowl: Penn State v Alabama
  • Fiesta Bowl: USC v Georgia
  • Peach Bowl: Notre Dame v UCF

2017 College Football Rankings #4

Well, that’s interestimg.  So now, TCU, Penn State add losses while Notre Dame continues to rise with routs of USC and NC State.  With the first college playoff rankings announced, it seemed like an opportune time to write a bit more here.  These are the rankings entering Friday’s games.

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Georgia 8 0 0.5038 1.000 0.5038 40
2 Miami-FL 7 0 0.4774 0.977 0.4774 48
3 Alabama 8 0 0.4599 0.962 0.4599 55
4 Notre Dame 7 1 0.4597 0.962 0.5847 8
5 Clemson 7 1 0.4580 0.960 0.5830 9
6 Penn State 7 1 0.4574 0.960 0.5824 10
7 Ohio State 7 1 0.4543 0.957 0.5793 11
8 Wisconsin 8 0 0.4531 0.956 0.4531 60
9 Oklahoma State 7 1 0.4258 0.933 0.5508 22
10 Oklahoma 7 1 0.4230 0.930 0.5480 25
11 TCU 7 1 0.3799 0.893 0.5049 39
12 Michigan State 6 2 0.3527 0.869 0.6027 4
13 UCF 7 0 0.3452 0.863 0.3452 107
14 USC 7 2 0.3315 0.851 0.5537 21
15 Michigan 6 2 0.3250 0.845 0.5750 12
16 Iowa State 6 2 0.2927 0.817 0.5427 27
17 Washington 7 1 0.2907 0.816 0.4157 75
18 Virginia Tech 7 1 0.2901 0.815 0.4151 76
19 NC State 6 2 0.2760 0.803 0.5260 34
20 Memphis 7 1 0.2576 0.787 0.3826 91
21 Toledo 8 1 0.2375 0.770 0.3487 106
22 Mississippi State 6 2 0.2357 0.768 0.4857 42
23 Iowa 5 3 0.2111 0.747 0.5861 6
24 Northwestern 5 3 0.2106 0.746 0.5856 7
25 South Carolina 6 2 0.2101 0.746 0.4601 54
26 Washington State 7 2 0.2087 0.745 0.4309 66
27 Auburn 6 2 0.2052 0.742 0.4552 58
28 LSU 6 2 0.2045 0.741 0.4545 59
29 Boston College 5 4 0.1999 0.737 0.6444 3
30 San Diego State 7 2 0.1992 0.737 0.4214 73
31 Stanford 6 2 0.1987 0.736 0.4487 62
32 Kentucky 6 2 0.1808 0.721 0.4308 68
33 Boise State 6 2 0.1605 0.703 0.4105 78
34 Wake Forest 5 3 0.1538 0.697 0.5288 33
35 Maryland 4 4 0.1513 0.695 0.6513 2
36 Arizona 6 2 0.1244 0.672 0.3744 97
37 SMU 6 2 0.1232 0.671 0.3732 98
38 South Florida 7 1 0.1166 0.665 0.2416 123
39 Navy 5 3 0.1082 0.658 0.4832 46
40 Texas A&M 5 3 0.1047 0.655 0.4797 47
41 Nebraska 4 4 0.0978 0.649 0.5978 5
42 Louisville 5 4 0.0907 0.643 0.5351 31
43 Houston 5 3 0.0862 0.639 0.4612 53
44 Army 6 2 0.0842 0.637 0.3342 110
45 West Virginia 5 3 0.0841 0.637 0.4591 56
46 Georgia Tech 4 3 0.0774 0.631 0.5060 37
47 Troy 7 2 0.0728 0.627 0.2950 116
48 Northern Illinois 6 3 0.0718 0.626 0.4051 83
49 Texas 4 4 0.0713 0.626 0.5713 14
50 Ohio 7 2 0.0596 0.616 0.2819 118
51 Arizona State 4 4 0.0569 0.614 0.5569 19
52 Texas Tech 4 4 0.0480 0.606 0.5480 24
53 Virginia 5 3 0.0449 0.603 0.4199 74
54 Fresno State 5 3 0.0336 0.593 0.4086 80
55 UCLA 4 4 0.0324 0.592 0.5324 32
56 Oregon 5 4 0.0316 0.592 0.4761 49
57 FIU 5 2 0.0300 0.590 0.3158 113
58 Colorado State 6 3 0.0297 0.590 0.3631 102
59 Marshall 6 2 0.0073 0.571 0.2573 120
60 North Texas 5 3 0.0037 0.568 0.3787 94
61 Akron 5 4 0.0002 0.565 0.4446 63
62 Florida 3 4 -0.0092 0.556 0.5622 18
63 Syracuse 4 4 -0.0157 0.551 0.4843 43
64 Pittsburgh 4 5 -0.0160 0.551 0.5395 28
65 Florida Atlantic 5 3 -0.0219 0.545 0.3531 104
66 Colorado 5 4 -0.0221 0.545 0.4223 72
67 Wyoming 5 3 -0.0238 0.544 0.3512 105
68 Florida State 2 5 -0.0308 0.538 0.6835 1
69 Minnesota 4 4 -0.0371 0.532 0.4629 52
70 California 4 5 -0.0392 0.531 0.5164 35
71 Arkansas State 5 2 -0.0462 0.524 0.2395 124
72 Purdue 3 5 -0.0532 0.518 0.5718 13
73 Indiana 3 5 -0.0546 0.517 0.5704 15
74 Central Michigan 5 4 -0.0592 0.513 0.3853 89
75 Rutgers 3 5 -0.0606 0.512 0.5644 17
76 Air Force 4 4 -0.0691 0.505 0.4309 67
77 Arkansas 3 5 -0.0708 0.503 0.5542 20
78 Utah 4 4 -0.0726 0.502 0.4274 69
79 Kansas State 4 4 -0.0730 0.501 0.4270 70
80 Appalachian State 5 3 -0.0741 0.500 0.3009 115
81 Tennessee 3 5 -0.0766 0.498 0.5484 23
82 Western Michigan 5 4 -0.0766 0.498 0.3678 100
83 Vanderbilt 3 5 -0.0805 0.495 0.5445 26
84 Duke 4 5 -0.0838 0.492 0.4717 50
85 UTSA 5 2 -0.1169 0.463 0.1688 131
86 Southern Miss 5 3 -0.1379 0.445 0.2371 126
87 Ole Miss 3 5 -0.1416 0.442 0.4834 45
88 UAB 5 3 -0.1607 0.425 0.2143 129
89 Missouri 3 5 -0.1612 0.425 0.4638 51
90 Utah State 4 5 -0.1656 0.421 0.3900 86
91 Tulane 3 5 -0.1676 0.420 0.4574 57
92 Temple 4 5 -0.1750 0.413 0.3805 93
93 Georgia State 4 3 -0.1774 0.411 0.2512 121
94 Louisiana Tech 4 4 -0.1824 0.407 0.3176 112
95 Western Kentucky 5 3 -0.1932 0.397 0.1818 130
96 MTSU 3 5 -0.2128 0.380 0.4122 77
97 New Mexico 3 5 -0.2252 0.370 0.3998 85
98 UNLV 3 5 -0.2356 0.361 0.3894 87
99 Cincinnati 2 6 -0.2448 0.353 0.5052 38
100 Illinois 2 6 -0.2541 0.345 0.4959 41
101 Eastern Michigan 3 6 -0.2611 0.339 0.4056 82
102 South Alabama 3 5 -0.2664 0.334 0.3586 103
103 Buffalo 3 6 -0.2792 0.323 0.3875 88
104 Connecticut 3 5 -0.2896 0.314 0.3354 108
105 New Mexico State 3 5 -0.2901 0.314 0.3349 109
106 Miami-OH 3 6 -0.2922 0.312 0.3745 96
107 Hawaii 3 5 -0.2941 0.310 0.3309 111
108 LA-Lafayette 3 4 -0.2978 0.307 0.2737 119
109 North Carolina 1 8 -0.3229 0.285 0.5660 16
110 Tulsa 2 7 -0.3282 0.281 0.4496 61
111 Oregon State 1 7 -0.3377 0.272 0.5373 29
112 Kent State 2 7 -0.3401 0.270 0.4376 65
113 East Carolina 2 6 -0.3428 0.268 0.4072 81
114 BYU 2 7 -0.3517 0.260 0.4261 71
115 Kansas 1 7 -0.3642 0.250 0.5108 36
116 Idaho 3 6 -0.3803 0.236 0.2864 117
117 Old Dominion 2 6 -0.3809 0.235 0.3691 99
118 Bowling Green 2 7 -0.4009 0.218 0.3769 95
119 LA-Monroe 3 5 -0.4046 0.215 0.2204 128
120 Ball State 2 7 -0.4124 0.208 0.3653 101
121 Other 9 83 -0.4180 0.203 0.4842 44
122 Nevada 1 7 -0.4366 0.187 0.4384 64
123 Baylor 0 8 -0.4646 0.163 0.5354 30
124 San Jose State 1 8 -0.4854 0.145 0.4035 84
125 Rice 1 7 -0.4930 0.138 0.3820 92
126 Texas State 2 6 -0.5044 0.128 0.2456 122
127 Massachusetts 2 6 -0.5110 0.123 0.2390 125
128 Charlotte 1 7 -0.5697 0.072 0.3053 114
129 Georgia Southern 0 7 -0.5896 0.055 0.4104 79
130 UTEP 0 8 -0.6165 0.031 0.3835 90
131 Coastal Carolina 1 7 -0.6528 0.000 0.2222 127

The bowl matchups if the season ended today? (with a little projection for mega-conferences)

  • The top 4 is less simple here.  Considering that Miami-FL and Clemson would play each other … and Alabama and Georgia would play each other.  I use the adjusted scoring margins to choose winners there.  This puts Clemson and Georgia in the Top 2.  Despite a slightly higher ranking, Ohio State gets credit for the head to head win (which moves them into Big Ten champ territory).  Thus, Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson and Ohio State get the 4 spots now.
  • The other automatic bids include the Pac-12 leader (#14 USC) and the Group of Five rep (#13 Central Florida – San Diego State is higher ranked but not leading the Mountain West), Oklahoma State (Big 12).
  • Orange Bowl is the highest remaining ACC team against the highest ranked Big Ten, SEC, or ND team that is not a conference champ.  So – this means Alabama gets the slot
  • That leaves four more teams to place into bowls.  By ranking, we go Penn State, Wisconsin, Oklahoma and TCU.  This seems reasonable.
  • Using these matchups?
    • Sugar Bowl: Georgia v Ohio State
    • Rose Bowl: Notre Dame v Clemson
    • Orange Bowl: Miami-FL v Alabama
    • Fiesta Bowl: USC v Central Florida
    • Cotton Bowl: Penn State v Oklahoma
    • Peach Bowl: Wisconsin v TCU

2017 College Football Rankings #3

It’s always the weeks you don’t expect where the fun lies.  What looked like a sleepy weekend without any ranked v ranked games – and whaddya know?  Clemson, Washington, Washington State, Auburn all go down, with Michigan just dodging a bullet.  TCU registers another good road win to continue to amass the best resume in the country to date.  How does it all shake down rankings-wise?

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 TCU 6 0 0.5517 1.000 0.5517 17
2 Alabama 7 0 0.5346 0.987 0.5346 23
3 Penn State 6 0 0.5116 0.970 0.5116 35
4 Miami-FL 5 0 0.5115 0.970 0.5115 36
5 Georgia 7 0 0.4809 0.947 0.4809 51
6 Wisconsin 6 0 0.4617 0.933 0.4617 57
7 Michigan State 5 1 0.4485 0.923 0.6152 4
8 Ohio State 6 1 0.4026 0.889 0.5454 21
9 Clemson 6 1 0.3984 0.886 0.5413 22
10 Michigan 5 1 0.3966 0.885 0.5632 14
11 USC 6 1 0.3813 0.873 0.5241 28
12 Oklahoma 5 1 0.3812 0.873 0.5479 18
13 Oklahoma State 5 1 0.3635 0.860 0.5302 25
14 Notre Dame 5 1 0.3566 0.855 0.5233 29
15 San Diego State 6 1 0.3390 0.842 0.4818 49
16 NC State 6 1 0.3298 0.835 0.4726 53
17 UCF 5 0 0.3242 0.831 0.3242 110
18 Navy 5 1 0.2842 0.801 0.4509 58
19 Washington 6 1 0.2779 0.797 0.4207 74
20 Washington State 6 1 0.2741 0.794 0.4170 76
21 Iowa 4 2 0.2404 0.769 0.5738 9
22 Virginia 5 1 0.2327 0.763 0.3994 88
23 Stanford 5 2 0.2314 0.762 0.5171 32
24 Kentucky 5 1 0.2247 0.757 0.3914 93
25 Memphis 5 1 0.2005 0.739 0.3672 100
26 Virginia Tech 5 1 0.1997 0.739 0.3664 101
27 South Carolina 5 2 0.1965 0.736 0.4822 47
28 Texas A&M 5 2 0.1963 0.736 0.4820 48
29 Toledo 5 1 0.1957 0.736 0.3624 102
30 Wake Forest 4 2 0.1799 0.724 0.5132 33
31 Florida State 2 3 0.1673 0.714 0.7673 1
32 Iowa State 4 2 0.1604 0.709 0.4937 39
33 LSU 5 2 0.1596 0.709 0.4453 59
34 Auburn 5 2 0.1531 0.704 0.4389 64
35 Mississippi State 4 2 0.1509 0.702 0.4842 45
36 Texas Tech 4 2 0.1480 0.700 0.4813 50
37 South Florida 6 0 0.1470 0.699 0.1470 131
38 Boise State 4 2 0.1470 0.699 0.4803 52
39 Maryland 3 3 0.1423 0.696 0.6423 2
40 North Texas 4 2 0.1087 0.671 0.4420 62
41 California 4 3 0.1027 0.666 0.5313 24
42 Houston 4 2 0.0998 0.664 0.4331 67
43 Arizona State 3 3 0.0989 0.664 0.5989 5
44 Fresno State 4 2 0.0986 0.663 0.4320 69
45 Utah 4 2 0.0914 0.658 0.4247 72
46 Marshall 5 1 0.0903 0.657 0.2570 124
47 Indiana 3 3 0.0790 0.649 0.5790 6
48 SMU 4 2 0.0788 0.649 0.4122 80
49 Northwestern 3 3 0.0766 0.647 0.5766 8
50 Colorado State 5 2 0.0761 0.647 0.3618 103
51 Northern Illinois 4 2 0.0707 0.643 0.4040 86
52 Purdue 3 3 0.0678 0.641 0.5678 11
53 Army 5 2 0.0662 0.639 0.3520 104
54 Texas 3 3 0.0644 0.638 0.5644 12
55 West Virginia 4 2 0.0634 0.637 0.3968 89
56 Troy 4 2 0.0632 0.637 0.3966 90
57 Duke 4 3 0.0616 0.636 0.4902 42
58 Oregon 4 3 0.0596 0.634 0.4882 43
59 Boston College 3 4 0.0559 0.632 0.6274 3
60 Louisville 4 3 0.0539 0.630 0.4825 46
61 Appalachian State 4 2 0.0424 0.622 0.3757 98
62 Ole Miss 3 3 0.0221 0.607 0.5221 30
63 Florida 3 3 0.0178 0.603 0.5178 31
64 Akron 4 3 0.0153 0.602 0.4439 60
65 Georgia Tech 3 2 0.0099 0.598 0.4099 81
66 Arizona 4 2 0.0045 0.594 0.3379 108
67 UCLA 3 3 -0.0042 0.587 0.4958 38
68 Wyoming 4 2 -0.0067 0.585 0.3266 109
69 Nebraska 3 4 -0.0079 0.584 0.5636 13
70 Syracuse 4 3 -0.0111 0.582 0.4175 75
71 Vanderbilt 3 4 -0.0128 0.581 0.5587 15
72 Western Michigan 4 3 -0.0152 0.579 0.4134 79
73 Minnesota 3 3 -0.0280 0.569 0.4720 54
74 FIU 4 2 -0.0339 0.565 0.2995 117
75 Tennessee 3 3 -0.0367 0.563 0.4633 56
76 Ohio 5 2 -0.0383 0.562 0.2474 125
77 Southern Miss 4 2 -0.0399 0.561 0.2935 118
78 Colorado 4 3 -0.0474 0.555 0.3812 97
79 Tulane 3 3 -0.0610 0.545 0.4390 63
80 UAB 4 2 -0.0762 0.534 0.2571 123
81 New Mexico 3 3 -0.0772 0.533 0.4228 73
82 Kansas State 3 3 -0.0836 0.528 0.4164 77
83 Arkansas 2 4 -0.0882 0.525 0.5785 7
84 Arkansas State 3 2 -0.1095 0.509 0.2905 119
85 Florida Atlantic 3 3 -0.1119 0.507 0.3881 95
86 UTSA 3 2 -0.1218 0.500 0.2782 121
87 Louisiana Tech 3 3 -0.1247 0.498 0.3753 99
88 Rutgers 2 4 -0.1579 0.473 0.5088 37
89 Georgia State 3 2 -0.1596 0.472 0.2404 126
90 Pittsburgh 2 5 -0.1624 0.470 0.5519 16
91 MTSU 3 4 -0.1636 0.469 0.4078 83
92 Buffalo 3 4 -0.1690 0.465 0.4025 87
93 Western Kentucky 4 2 -0.1755 0.460 0.1579 130
94 New Mexico State 3 4 -0.1801 0.456 0.3913 94
95 Air Force 2 4 -0.1820 0.455 0.4847 44
96 Utah State 3 4 -0.1841 0.453 0.3873 96
97 Cincinnati 2 5 -0.2014 0.441 0.5129 34
98 Tulsa 2 5 -0.2216 0.426 0.4927 40
99 South Alabama 2 4 -0.2243 0.424 0.4423 61
100 LA-Lafayette 3 3 -0.2257 0.423 0.2743 122
101 Central Michigan 3 4 -0.2290 0.420 0.3424 107
102 Illinois 2 4 -0.2315 0.418 0.4351 66
103 Kent State 2 5 -0.2454 0.408 0.4689 55
104 UNLV 2 4 -0.2582 0.398 0.4084 82
105 Eastern Michigan 2 4 -0.2592 0.398 0.4075 84
106 Missouri 1 5 -0.2616 0.396 0.5718 10
107 Temple 3 4 -0.2672 0.392 0.3042 116
108 LA-Monroe 3 3 -0.2807 0.382 0.2193 128
109 Hawaii 3 4 -0.2824 0.380 0.2891 120
110 Oregon State 1 6 -0.3107 0.359 0.5465 19
111 Old Dominion 2 4 -0.3171 0.355 0.3496 105
112 Ball State 2 4 -0.3209 0.352 0.3457 106
113 BYU 1 6 -0.3323 0.343 0.5249 26
114 North Carolina 1 6 -0.3328 0.343 0.5244 27
115 Connecticut 2 4 -0.3459 0.333 0.3208 113
116 Idaho 2 4 -0.3587 0.324 0.3080 115
117 Miami-OH 2 5 -0.3904 0.300 0.3239 111
118 Kansas 1 5 -0.4070 0.288 0.4263 71
119 Other 9 82 -0.4091 0.286 0.4920 41
120 Nevada 1 6 -0.4209 0.278 0.4363 65
121 Rice 1 5 -0.4391 0.264 0.3943 91
122 San Jose State 1 7 -0.4428 0.261 0.4322 68
123 East Carolina 1 6 -0.4501 0.256 0.4071 85
124 Baylor 0 6 -0.4544 0.253 0.5456 20
125 Bowling Green 1 6 -0.4645 0.245 0.3927 92
126 Texas State 1 6 -0.5343 0.193 0.3228 112
127 Georgia Southern 0 5 -0.5686 0.168 0.4314 70
128 UTEP 0 7 -0.5863 0.155 0.4137 78
129 Coastal Carolina 1 5 -0.6005 0.144 0.2328 127
130 Charlotte 0 7 -0.6852 0.081 0.3148 114
131 Massachusetts 0 6 -0.7947 0.000 0.2053 129

The bowl matchups if the season ended today? (with a little projection for mega-conferences)

  • The top 4 is simple.  TCU, Alabama, Penn State, Miami-FL
  • The other automatic bids include the Pac-12 leader (#11 USC) and the Group of Five rep (#17 Central Florida – San Diego State is higher ranked but not leading the Mountain West)
  • Orange Bowl is ACC vs Notre Dame, SEC or Big Ten.  Going by straight rankings Clemson vs Georgia
  • That leaves four more teams to place into bowls.  Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan are the four teams by ranking.  That said, it is unlikely all four teams joined Penn State here, we drop Michigan and promote Oklahoma here.
  • Using these matchups?
    • Sugar Bowl: TCU v Miami-FL
    • Rose Bowl: Alabama v Penn State
    • Orange Bowl: Clemson v Georgia
    • Fiesta Bowl: USC v Ohio State
    • Cotton Bowl: Michigan State v Oklahoma
    • Peach Bowl: Wisconsin v Central Florida

2017 College Football Rankings #2

(Note: This does not include the results of Wednesday or Thursday’s Games)

 

Entering last week, defending champions Clemson had not had a huge test yet – or at least something which had that look by the model.  However, with Auburn and Louisville gaining strength and Clemson’s wipeout of Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, the Tigers are back where you’d expect them.  Meanwhile, Alabama keeps rolling – although it is still inconclusive as to whether they have beaten anybody good yet.  Last week’s #1 Central Florida, did nothing wrong – it’s just that teams passed them.  In particular, TCU – the other team with two high quality road scalps, ascends to the top.

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 TCU 4 0 0.5720 1.000 0.5720 7
2 Clemson 5 0 0.5277 0.967 0.5277 17
3 Oklahoma 4 0 0.5212 0.962 0.5212 18
4 Michigan 4 0 0.5209 0.962 0.5209 19
5 Alabama 5 0 0.5189 0.960 0.5189 21
6 Georgia 5 0 0.5159 0.958 0.5159 22
7 San Diego State 5 0 0.4601 0.916 0.4601 41
8 Navy 4 0 0.4554 0.912 0.4554 47
9 UCF 3 0 0.4415 0.902 0.4415 56
10 Penn State 5 0 0.4270 0.891 0.4270 62
11 Miami-FL 3 0 0.3939 0.866 0.3939 83
12 Maryland 3 1 0.3806 0.856 0.6306 3
13 Washington 5 0 0.3759 0.853 0.3759 90
14 Ohio State 4 1 0.3644 0.844 0.5644 8
15 Oklahoma State 4 1 0.3588 0.840 0.5588 9
16 USC 4 1 0.3470 0.831 0.5470 10
17 Notre Dame 4 1 0.3449 0.830 0.5449 11
18 Wisconsin 4 0 0.3433 0.828 0.3433 99
19 Florida 3 1 0.2917 0.790 0.5417 13
20 Washington State 5 0 0.2917 0.790 0.2917 116
21 Wake Forest 4 1 0.2585 0.765 0.4585 43
22 Louisville 4 1 0.2581 0.764 0.4581 44
23 Utah 4 0 0.2546 0.762 0.2546 123
24 UTSA 3 0 0.2514 0.759 0.2514 124
25 Texas Tech 3 1 0.2473 0.756 0.4973 31
26 Michigan State 3 1 0.2328 0.746 0.4828 36
27 NC State 4 1 0.2308 0.744 0.4308 60
28 Duke 4 1 0.2127 0.730 0.4127 73
29 Oregon 4 1 0.2088 0.727 0.4088 76
30 Troy 4 1 0.1970 0.719 0.3970 79
31 SMU 4 1 0.1941 0.716 0.3941 82
32 Auburn 4 1 0.1804 0.706 0.3804 87
33 Kentucky 4 1 0.1776 0.704 0.3776 88
34 Iowa 3 2 0.1731 0.701 0.5731 6
35 Marshall 3 1 0.1728 0.700 0.4228 66
36 Memphis 3 1 0.1454 0.680 0.3954 81
37 South Florida 5 0 0.1419 0.677 0.1419 131
38 Virginia Tech 4 1 0.1344 0.672 0.3344 106
39 Houston 3 1 0.1340 0.671 0.3840 85
40 Texas A&M 4 1 0.1331 0.671 0.3331 107
41 Toledo 3 1 0.1266 0.666 0.3766 89
42 Minnesota 3 1 0.1202 0.661 0.3702 93
43 Indiana 2 2 0.1134 0.656 0.6134 4
44 Mississippi State 3 2 0.1111 0.654 0.5111 25
45 Florida State 1 2 0.1070 0.651 0.7736 1
46 Vanderbilt 3 2 0.0963 0.643 0.4963 34
47 Ohio 4 1 0.0934 0.641 0.2934 115
48 Virginia 3 1 0.0923 0.640 0.3423 100
49 Stanford 3 2 0.0813 0.632 0.4813 37
50 California 3 2 0.0797 0.631 0.4797 38
51 Nebraska 3 2 0.0595 0.615 0.4595 42
52 Tennessee 3 2 0.0490 0.608 0.4490 49
53 Georgia Tech 3 1 0.0471 0.606 0.2971 113
54 Texas 2 2 0.0448 0.604 0.5448 12
55 North Texas 3 2 0.0440 0.604 0.4440 52
56 FIU 3 1 0.0392 0.600 0.2892 117
57 UCLA 3 2 0.0372 0.599 0.4372 58
58 Boston College 2 3 0.0340 0.596 0.6340 2
59 South Carolina 3 2 0.0223 0.588 0.4223 67
60 Fresno State 2 2 0.0190 0.585 0.5190 20
61 Kansas State 3 1 0.0166 0.583 0.2666 120
62 Army 3 2 0.0134 0.581 0.4134 72
63 Colorado 3 2 0.0125 0.580 0.4125 74
64 Tulane 2 2 0.0106 0.579 0.5106 26
65 Western Michigan 3 2 0.0014 0.572 0.4014 77
66 Purdue 2 2 0.0012 0.572 0.5012 29
67 Buffalo 3 2 -0.0007 0.570 0.3993 78
68 Colorado State 3 2 -0.0039 0.568 0.3961 80
69 New Mexico 3 2 -0.0126 0.561 0.3874 84
70 West Virginia 3 1 -0.0150 0.560 0.2350 128
71 Utah State 3 2 -0.0169 0.558 0.3831 86
72 Arizona State 2 3 -0.0268 0.551 0.5732 5
73 Ole Miss 2 2 -0.0322 0.547 0.4678 39
74 Northern Illinois 2 2 -0.0376 0.543 0.4624 40
75 Arkansas 2 2 -0.0473 0.535 0.4527 48
76 Wyoming 3 2 -0.0499 0.533 0.3501 95
77 Boise State 2 2 -0.0516 0.532 0.4484 50
78 Louisiana Tech 3 2 -0.0538 0.530 0.3462 97
79 Appalachian State 2 2 -0.0581 0.527 0.4419 55
80 LSU 3 2 -0.0598 0.526 0.3402 102
81 Iowa State 2 2 -0.0673 0.520 0.4327 59
82 Northwestern 2 2 -0.0800 0.511 0.4200 68
83 Cincinnati 2 3 -0.0898 0.503 0.5102 27
84 Pittsburgh 2 3 -0.1035 0.493 0.4965 33
85 Illinois 2 2 -0.1257 0.476 0.3743 92
86 MTSU 2 3 -0.1529 0.456 0.4471 51
87 Eastern Michigan 2 2 -0.1541 0.455 0.3459 98
88 New Mexico State 2 3 -0.1564 0.453 0.4436 53
89 Florida Atlantic 2 3 -0.1572 0.453 0.4428 54
90 Idaho 2 2 -0.1607 0.450 0.3393 103
91 Arkansas State 1 2 -0.1699 0.443 0.4968 32
92 UNLV 2 2 -0.1719 0.442 0.3281 108
93 Miami-OH 2 3 -0.1751 0.439 0.4249 63
94 Temple 2 3 -0.1805 0.435 0.4195 69
95 Akron 2 3 -0.1859 0.431 0.4141 71
96 Old Dominion 2 2 -0.1983 0.422 0.3017 112
97 Southern Miss 2 2 -0.2295 0.399 0.2705 119
98 UAB 2 2 -0.2377 0.392 0.2623 122
99 Air Force 1 3 -0.2414 0.390 0.5086 28
100 Arizona 2 2 -0.2529 0.381 0.2471 125
101 Hawaii 2 3 -0.2535 0.381 0.3465 96
102 Oregon State 1 4 -0.2622 0.374 0.5378 14
103 Ball State 2 3 -0.2622 0.374 0.3378 104
104 Western Kentucky 2 2 -0.2622 0.374 0.2378 127
105 Central Michigan 2 3 -0.2623 0.374 0.3377 105
106 Rutgers 1 4 -0.2665 0.371 0.5335 15
107 Kent State 1 4 -0.2698 0.368 0.5302 16
108 LA-Monroe 2 2 -0.2703 0.368 0.2297 129
109 Syracuse 2 3 -0.2814 0.360 0.3186 110
110 Tulsa 1 4 -0.3112 0.337 0.4888 35
111 Missouri 1 3 -0.3268 0.326 0.4232 65
112 North Carolina 1 4 -0.3430 0.313 0.4570 46
113 BYU 1 4 -0.3753 0.289 0.4247 64
114 South Alabama 1 4 -0.3846 0.282 0.4154 70
115 Other 9 81 -0.3882 0.280 0.5118 24
116 Texas State 1 4 -0.3895 0.279 0.4105 75
117 Georgia State 1 2 -0.3901 0.278 0.2766 118
118 San Jose State 1 5 -0.3955 0.274 0.4379 57
119 Rice 1 4 -0.4245 0.252 0.3755 91
120 Connecticut 1 3 -0.4288 0.249 0.3212 109
121 LA-Lafayette 1 3 -0.4413 0.240 0.3087 111
122 East Carolina 1 4 -0.4594 0.226 0.3406 101
123 Kansas 1 3 -0.4841 0.208 0.2659 121
124 Georgia Southern 0 3 -0.4858 0.206 0.5142 23
125 Baylor 0 5 -0.4999 0.196 0.5001 30
126 UTEP 0 5 -0.5429 0.163 0.4571 45
127 Coastal Carolina 1 3 -0.5652 0.147 0.1848 130
128 Nevada 0 5 -0.5699 0.143 0.4301 61
129 Bowling Green 0 5 -0.6371 0.093 0.3629 94
130 Charlotte 0 5 -0.7040 0.043 0.2960 114
131 Massachusetts 0 6 -0.7607 0.000 0.2393 126

Given these rankings, and the reality of conference champions and such – who are the Final Four?

  • Well, let’s assume that you’d need a very good reason to pass over a conference champ – and four of the Top 5 are from different conferences – TCU, Clemson, Michigan and Alabama get the playoff slots.  We have a TCU/Alabama Sugar Bowl and a Clemson/Michigan Rose Bowl.
  • The Orange Bowl guarantees an ACC team – so Miami-FL is next team up.  They play either an SEC team, a Big Ten team or Notre Dame.  So Georgia goes here.
  • Washington gets the Pac-12’s automatic bid here, while San Diego State is the automatic Group of 5 rep.
  • The other 4 at-large positions?  Oklahoma, Navy, Penn State and Maryland.  It is unlikely Navy AND UCF would get spots since they are in the same conference and would end up playing each other at some point.
  • The Bowls if the season ended today?
    • SUGAR BOWL (National Semifinal): TCU vs Alabama
    • ROSE BOWL (National Semifinal): Clemson v Michigan
    • ORANGE BOWL: Miami-FL vs Georgia
    • COTTON BOWL: Oklahoma v Penn State
    • PEACH BOWL:  Maryland v Navy
    • FIESTA BOWL: Washington v San Diego State