Tag: power rankings

Peonage Pigskin – Week 6

Well, that was fun for LSU.  After getting to #1 last week, LSU could not sustain the momentum – losing at Florida.  Florida’s rise helped Kentucky, who lost at Texas A&M.  As such Kentucky did not fall much at all from the previous #4.  Notre Dame backed up their huge win against Stanford with a strong win at Virginia Tech.  Ian Book has seemed to change everything there.  Ohio State had to sweat more than expected against a spunky Indiana team, but pulled away late.

Now on the eye test, I find it hard not to love Alabama.  At the same time, their resume is not as good as Georgia, especially with the lack of decent road wins.  This does raise some questions about whether you can use an NCAA basketball framework when there are fewer datapoints and less near term schedule control.  I am inclined though to still stick with objective criteria.  It’s more reason for a 16 team tournament.

What would a perfect CFP look like?  For me, it takes the 10 conference champs and 6 at-larges.  The power 5 teams are the top 5 seeds, with one Group of 5 team joining them as a top 6 seed if it is higher ranked than any of the Power 5 champions (and independents subject to same criteria).  For now, we use the rankings for conference champs.  In this framework, because of Washington being ranked below Notre Dame and UCF.

(thru October 10 – so the weeknight games this week are here)

TEAM CONF W L RTG
1 Georgia SEC 6 0 445.4567
2 Alabama SEC 6 0 388.7769
3 Ohio State Big Ten 6 0 302.0601
4 Notre Dame Ind 6 0 280.2624
5 Clemson ACC 6 0 276.8497
6 Kentucky SEC 5 1 188.9309
7 Penn State Big Ten 4 1 167.0779
8 LSU SEC 5 1 164.4227
9 West Virginia Big 12 5 0 162.5482
10 Florida SEC 5 1 149.0177
11 UCF American 5 0 146.7363
12 Michigan Big Ten 5 1 133.3013
13 Oklahoma Big 12 5 1 126.2918
14 NC State ACC 5 0 124.6455
15 Cincinnati American 6 0 100
16 Texas Big 12 5 1 94.90253
17 South Carolina SEC 3 2 91.38364
18 Appalachian State Sun Belt 4 1 91.05479
19 Washington Pac 12 5 1 90.02829
20 Texas A&M SEC 4 2 89.95471
21 Duke ACC 4 1 84.67151
22 South Florida American 5 0 83.15889
23 Miami-FL ACC 5 1 78.59651
24 Colorado Pac 12 5 0 77.18483
25 Mississippi State SEC 4 2 72.38202
26 Iowa Big Ten 4 1 71.74454
27 Stanford Pac 12 4 2 70.84703
28 Army Ind 3 2 68.57295
29 Wisconsin Big Ten 4 1 68.04476
30 Washington State Pac 12 5 1 64.70651
31 Ole Miss SEC 4 2 64.13018
32 Syracuse ACC 4 2 61.17363
33 Utah Pac 12 3 2 59.69634
34 Auburn SEC 4 2 58.16709
35 Fresno State MWC 4 1 58.1013
36 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 4 1 57.6603
37 Utah State MWC 4 1 56.39559
38 San Diego State MWC 4 1 55.85583
39 Texas Tech Big 12 3 2 53.79482
40 Missouri SEC 3 2 52.35171
41 UAB C-USA 4 1 51.15842
42 TCU Big 12 3 2 48.33287
43 Virginia Tech ACC 3 2 47.87337
44 Buffalo MAC 5 1 44.67217
45 USC Pac 12 3 2 43.85405
46 Maryland Big Ten 3 2 43.46367
47 Oregon Pac 12 4 1 43.07939
48 Indiana Big Ten 4 2 42.41534
49 Houston American 4 1 41.82609
50 Boston College ACC 4 2 41.41224
51 North Texas C-USA 5 1 41.15424
52 Michigan State Big Ten 3 2 41.13761
53 Troy Sun Belt 5 1 40.89167
54 Vanderbilt SEC 3 3 40.62189
55 Boise State MWC 3 2 40.41142
56 Virginia ACC 3 2 39.46321
57 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 3 2 38.43363
58 Iowa State Big 12 2 3 36.23679
59 Arizona State Pac 12 3 3 36.18151
60 MTSU C-USA 3 2 35.71895
61 Minnesota Big Ten 3 2 35.09785
62 Oklahoma State Big 12 4 2 32.81936
63 Hawaii MWC 6 1 32.50874
64 Western Michigan MAC 4 2 32.35758
65 Baylor Big 12 4 2 31.68708
66 Louisiana Tech C-USA 3 2 29.92319
67 Northwestern Big Ten 2 3 29.92024
68 Pittsburgh ACC 3 3 28.0797
69 Florida Atlantic C-USA 3 3 26.6124
70 Illinois Big Ten 3 2 26.26167
71 BYU Ind 3 3 26.11415
72 Georgia Tech ACC 3 3 25.88869
73 FIU C-USA 3 2 25.15232
74 Wake Forest ACC 3 3 24.64846
75 Arkansas State Sun Belt 3 3 23.00435
76 Florida State ACC 3 3 22.61945
77 Toledo MAC 3 2 22.38741
78 Purdue Big Ten 2 3 21.97828
79 Marshall C-USA 3 2 21.84755
80 Temple American 3 3 21.69562
81 New Mexico MWC 3 2 21.07004
82 Ohio MAC 3 2 21.06449
83 California Pac 12 3 2 20.98606
84 Memphis American 4 2 19.54506
85 Northern Illinois MAC 3 3 19.23601
86 Arizona Pac 12 3 3 19.04622
87 Tulane American 2 4 18.57477
88 Eastern Michigan MAC 2 4 18.13255
89 LA-Lafayette Sun Belt 2 3 17.36971
90 Tennessee SEC 2 3 17.10489
91 Akron MAC 2 2 16.28208
92 Miami-OH MAC 2 4 15.54712
93 Liberty Ind 2 3 15.12098
94 Kansas State Big 12 2 4 14.62841
95 Air Force MWC 2 3 14.49969
96 Nevada MWC 3 3 13.50247
97 SMU American 2 4 11.35117
98 Southern Miss C-USA 2 2 11.28295
99 Wyoming MWC 2 4 10.95456
100 Navy American 2 3 10.56825
101 North Carolina ACC 1 3 9.922419
102 Massachusetts Ind 2 5 9.494485
103 East Carolina American 2 3 9.080067
104 Charlotte C-USA 2 3 8.965527
105 Georgia State Sun Belt 2 4 8.711854
106 UCLA Pac 12 0 5 8.67553
107 Kansas Big 12 2 4 8.361064
108 Old Dominion C-USA 1 5 8.15511
109 UNLV MWC 2 3 8.096114
110 LA-Monroe Sun Belt 2 4 8.094136
111 Louisville ACC 2 4 8.063053
112 Ball State MAC 2 4 7.983199
113 UTSA C-USA 3 3 7.746922
114 Tulsa American 1 4 7.644233
115 Nebraska Big Ten 0 5 7.050814
116 South Alabama Sun Belt 1 5 6.596887
117 New Mexico State Ind 2 4 6.572605
118 Kent State MAC 1 5 6.142388
119 Arkansas SEC 1 5 6.009176
120 Oregon State Pac 12 1 5 5.758727
121 Western Kentucky C-USA 1 4 5.725976
122 Connecticut American 1 5 5.366261
123 Colorado State MWC 2 4 5.278101
124 Rutgers Big Ten 1 5 5.087636
125 Central Michigan MAC 1 5 5.081554
126 Bowling Green MAC 1 5 3.817287
127 Texas State Sun Belt 1 4 3.129276
128 Rice C-USA 1 5 2.818722
129 Other Other 7 92 2.048774
130 San Jose State MWC 0 5 1.638707
131 UTEP C-USA 0 6 1.17302

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

  • SEC – Georgia
  • ACC – Clemson
  • Big Ten – Ohio State
  • Big 12 – West Virginia
  • Pac 12 – Washington
  • AAC – Central Florida
  • C-USA – UAB
  • Sun Belt – Appalachian State
  • MAC – Buffalo
  • MWC – Fresno State

AT LARGE: Alabama, LSU, Penn State, Kentucky, Clemson, Ohio State

  • PEACH BOWL: (1) Georgia v (4) Buffalo, (2) Washington v (3) Penn State
  • ROSE BOWL: (1) Ohio State v (4) UAB, (2) Alabama v (3) Florida
  • FIESTA BOWL: (1) Notre Dame v (4) Fresno State, (2) Central Florida v (3) Kentucky
  • SUGAR BOWL: (1) Clemson v (4) Appalachian State, (2) West Virginia v (3) LSU

BUBBLE:

  • Last 2 teams in: LSU, Florida
  • First 2 teams out: Michigan, Oklahoma
  • Next 2 teams out: NC State, Cincinnati
  • Two more: Texas, South Carolina

 

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Peonage Pigskin – Week 5

Each week, we learn a little more – and the model shows.  After last week where the average SE was 13x the average rating, now it has gone down almost 50%.  The average rating is 77, but the average STANDARD ERROR is 575.  So these standings are noisy, but better.  This year, we’re using a Bradley-Terry model, which is outlined here (I tweaked it to use fractional wins to account for scoring margin)  The nice thing here is that the model – unlike the RPI – determines strength of schedule from the results, instead of having it imposed.  Now it’s limited by being backwards looking – but it has the advantage of assuming every team starts 0-0.  The model knows exactly as much about the teams as the teams’ games have reflected.

And now, a couple of big games with titans suddenly made some big changes.  Notre Dame’s rout of Stanford and Ohio State’s gallant comeback at Penn State result in big jumps.  Louisville’s terrible-ness has held Alabama’s schedule back – they certainly don’t have a #1 resume.  Of course Duke and Buffalo took thumps after their great non-league starts.

What would a perfect CFP look like?  For me, it takes the 10 conference champs and 6 at-larges.  The power 5 teams are the top 5 seeds, with one Group of 5 team joining them as a top 6 seed if it is higher ranked than any of the Power 5 champions.  For now, we use the rankings for conference champs.

(thru October 5 – so the weeknight games this week are here)

TEAM CONF W L RTG
1 LSU SEC 5 0 481.3462
2 Georgia SEC 5 0 481.0523
3 Alabama SEC 5 0 393.9854
4 Kentucky SEC 5 0 354.6355
5 Ohio State Big Ten 5 0 270.8414
6 Notre Dame Ind 5 0 270.8285
7 Clemson ACC 5 0 259.6178
8 Oklahoma Big 12 5 0 231.4038
9 West Virginia Big 12 4 0 210.2996
10 Stanford Pac 12 4 1 156.5947
11 Penn State Big Ten 4 1 144.9457
12 NC State ACC 4 0 139.0089
13 Syracuse ACC 4 1 136.9626
14 UCF American 4 0 134.1175
15 Miami-FL ACC 4 1 133.214
16 Auburn SEC 4 1 133.0122
17 Florida SEC 4 1 114.2288
18 Washington Pac 12 4 1 113.9248
19 Michigan Big Ten 4 1 108.6828
20 Michigan State Big Ten 3 1 106.6455
21 South Carolina SEC 2 2 105.46
22 Duke ACC 4 1 104.2966
23 Army Ind 3 2 101.5356
24 Louisiana Tech C-USA 3 1 101.1854
25 Cincinnati American 5 0 100
26 North Texas C-USA 4 1 91.42383
27 Boise State MWC 3 1 90.97892
28 Virginia Tech ACC 3 1 82.9656
29 Ole Miss SEC 3 2 82.03209
30 Utah State MWC 4 1 80.64537
31 South Florida American 4 0 77.49447
32 Texas Tech Big 12 3 2 76.05881
33 Texas Big 12 4 1 75.98454
34 Indiana Big Ten 4 1 73.46922
35 Oklahoma State Big 12 4 1 73.366
36 Appalachian State Sun Belt 3 1 72.58952
37 Oregon Pac 12 4 1 72.04923
38 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 3 1 67.34565
39 Missouri SEC 3 1 66.78415
40 Colorado Pac 12 4 0 65.61158
41 Washington State Pac 12 4 1 61.44282
42 Wisconsin Big Ten 3 1 59.895
43 Fresno State MWC 3 1 57.55799
44 Maryland Big Ten 3 1 56.36478
45 Arizona State Pac 12 3 2 55.85513
46 Buffalo MAC 4 1 55.07938
47 Troy Sun Belt 5 1 54.67592
48 Houston American 4 1 54.47003
49 San Diego State MWC 3 1 54.378
50 USC Pac 12 3 2 53.94777
51 Mississippi State SEC 3 2 53.12915
52 Virginia ACC 3 2 52.40198
53 Boston College ACC 4 1 52.29523
54 TCU Big 12 3 2 50.86083
55 Minnesota Big Ten 3 1 50.65307
56 Texas A&M SEC 3 2 50.48881
57 Vanderbilt SEC 3 2 49.34635
58 Hawaii MWC 5 1 46.35432
59 Iowa Big Ten 3 1 42.45666
60 Arkansas State Sun Belt 3 2 42.26534
61 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 3 2 41.41133
62 MTSU C-USA 3 2 41.1626
63 California Pac 12 3 1 39.3666
64 FIU C-USA 3 2 38.67886
65 Baylor Big 12 3 2 36.70042
66 UAB C-USA 3 1 36.14635
67 Western Michigan MAC 3 2 35.66404
68 Utah Pac 12 2 2 35.06287
69 Liberty Ind 2 2 34.61428
70 Akron MAC 2 1 34.3773
71 Wake Forest ACC 3 2 33.80088
72 BYU Ind 3 3 32.79616
73 Iowa State Big 12 1 3 30.62625
74 Florida State ACC 3 2 27.80141
75 Georgia Tech ACC 3 3 26.73828
76 Toledo MAC 2 2 26.32957
77 Florida Atlantic C-USA 2 3 25.50068
78 Ohio MAC 2 2 24.96583
79 Memphis American 3 2 24.42508
80 Marshall C-USA 3 2 23.46828
81 Purdue Big Ten 2 3 23.30019
82 Tulane American 2 3 22.3021
83 Illinois Big Ten 2 2 22.0896
84 Northwestern Big Ten 1 3 22.02433
85 Temple American 2 3 21.88879
86 Eastern Michigan MAC 2 3 21.64001
87 Navy American 2 2 20.4796
88 Pittsburgh ACC 2 3 19.2005
89 Nevada MWC 3 2 19.13319
90 UNLV MWC 2 2 18.26692
91 Arizona Pac 12 2 3 18.23042
92 Tennessee SEC 2 3 18.04531
93 New Mexico MWC 2 2 16.84221
94 Southern Miss C-USA 2 2 16.57426
95 SMU American 2 3 16.50529
96 Northern Illinois MAC 2 3 15.85205
97 East Carolina American 2 2 15.60161
98 Old Dominion C-USA 1 4 14.93047
99 LA-Lafayette Sun Belt 1 3 14.86944
100 Kansas State Big 12 2 3 14.32167
101 Ball State MAC 2 3 13.60379
102 Massachusetts Ind 2 4 13.43084
103 North Carolina ACC 1 3 12.9325
104 Kansas Big 12 2 3 12.37769
105 Wyoming MWC 2 3 12.13008
106 Air Force MWC 1 3 12.0054
107 South Alabama Sun Belt 1 4 11.86135
108 Charlotte C-USA 2 3 11.16546
109 LA-Monroe Sun Belt 2 3 11.13363
110 Georgia State Sun Belt 2 4 10.79991
111 Miami-OH MAC 1 4 10.77084
112 Tulsa American 1 4 9.886478
113 Connecticut American 1 4 9.554546
114 Louisville ACC 2 4 9.316508
115 Rutgers Big Ten 1 4 9.062891
116 UCLA Pac 12 0 4 9.017271
117 Kent State MAC 1 4 8.62796
118 Oregon State Pac 12 1 4 7.803548
119 Nebraska Big Ten 0 4 7.728472
120 Western Kentucky C-USA 1 4 7.326752
121 Arkansas SEC 1 4 7.320442
122 Central Michigan MAC 1 4 6.885401
123 UTSA C-USA 2 3 6.710401
124 Rice C-USA 1 4 5.85525
125 Texas State Sun Belt 1 3 5.271486
126 Colorado State MWC 1 4 4.629481
127 Bowling Green MAC 1 4 4.398966
128 San Jose State MWC 0 4 3.495833
129 New Mexico State Ind 1 4 3.474647
130 Other Other 7 92 2.866641
131 UTEP C-USA 0 5 0.886356

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

  • SEC – LSU
  • ACC – Clemson
  • Big Ten – Ohio State
  • Big 12 – Oklahoma
  • Pac 12 – Stanford
  • AAC – Central Florida
  • C-USA – Louisiana Tech
  • Sun Belt – Appalachian State
  • MAC – Buffalo
  • MWC – Boise State

AT LARGE: Alabama, LSU, Penn State, Kentucky, Clemson, Ohio State

  • SUGAR BOWL REGION: (1) LSU v (4) Buffalo, (2) Stanford v (3) West Virginia
  • ROSE BOWL REGION: (1) Ohio State v (4) Appalachian State,  (2) Georgia v (3) Central Florida
  • FIESTA BOWL REGION: (1) Notre Dame v (4) Boise State,  (2) Alabama v (3) Penn State
  • PEACH BOWL REGION: (1) Clemson v (4) Louisiana Tech, (2) Oklahoma v (3) Kentucky

 

Peonage Pigskin – Week 4

Each week, we learn a little more – and the model shows.  After last week where the average SE was 13x the average rating, now it has gone down almost 50%.  The average rating is 77, but the average STANDARD ERROR is 649.  So these standings are noisy, but better.  This year, we’re using a Bradley-Terry model, which is outlined here (I tweaked it to use fractional wins to account for scoring margin)  The nice thing here is that the model – unlike the RPI – determines strength of schedule from the results, instead of having it imposed.  Now it’s limited by being backwards looking – but it has the advantage of assuming every team starts 0-0.  The model knows exactly as much about the teams as the teams’ games have reflected.

Really the standings show the teams who deserve hat tips for excellent starts.  If you didn’t have a preseason ranking and only knew the teams from the field – North Texas and Buffalo’s lofty rankings would actually look pretty legitimate.  As we dive into conference play though, things will be harder to continue.  The non-power conference teams will start to run out of ways to keep that rating up, while the opposite is true for Power teams.  Put simply, Ohio State will start to move up – possibly as soon as this week with its first true road game.

The ratings can be interpreted as victory odds.  So Alabama, based on the games and scoring margins to date – is likely to beat Indiana 2/3 of the time on a neutral field.

What would a perfect CFP look like?  For me, it takes the 10 conference champs and 6 at-larges.  The power 5 teams are the top 5 seeds, with one Group of 5 team joining them as a top 6 seed if it is higher ranked than any of the Power 5 champions.  For now, we use the rankings for conference champs.

(thru September 28 – so the weeknight games this week are here)

TEAM CONF W L RTG
1 Georgia SEC 4 0 660.6688
2 Alabama SEC 4 0 633.7399
3 LSU SEC 4 0 420.1625
4 Duke ACC 4 0 359.0451
5 Penn State Big Ten 4 0 293.0829
6 Kentucky SEC 4 0 287.6833
7 Clemson ACC 4 0 239.7653
8 Stanford Pac 12 4 0 233.2504
9 Oklahoma Big 12 4 0 218.9313
10 North Texas C-USA 4 0 202.5375
11 Buffalo MAC 4 0 189.5459
12 Ohio State Big Ten 4 0 180.5093
13 Syracuse ACC 4 0 175.8746
14 California Pac 12 3 0 169.2289
15 Notre Dame Ind 4 0 168.7941
16 Miami-FL ACC 4 1 167.0898
17 South Carolina SEC 2 1 166.2085
18 UCF American 3 0 149.7361
19 Ole Miss SEC 3 1 145.237
20 NC State ACC 3 0 141.0831
21 Texas Tech Big 12 3 1 131.0026
22 Auburn SEC 3 1 128.7719
23 BYU Ind 3 1 126.1002
24 Michigan State Big Ten 2 1 125.4917
25 West Virginia Big 12 3 0 120.2589
26 Wisconsin Big Ten 3 1 109.7262
27 Mississippi State SEC 3 1 106.2756
28 Washington Pac 12 3 1 104.0794
29 Appalachian State Sun Belt 2 1 102.032
30 Michigan Big Ten 3 1 100.1412
31 Cincinnati American 4 0 100
32 Colorado Pac 12 4 0 90.26881
33 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 3 1 86.89222
34 Indiana Big Ten 3 1 86.71487
35 Army Ind 2 2 86.45454
36 Virginia ACC 3 1 85.66712
37 Boise State MWC 2 1 85.53121
38 South Florida American 4 0 83.99939
39 Houston American 3 1 83.87512
40 Missouri SEC 3 1 83.8103
41 Arkansas State Sun Belt 3 1 80.67368
42 Texas Big 12 3 1 78.59519
43 San Diego State MWC 3 1 78.51951
44 Florida SEC 3 1 74.39499
45 Baylor Big 12 3 1 73.01797
46 Washington State Pac 12 3 1 72.4721
47 Maryland Big Ten 3 1 69.3991
48 Oklahoma State Big 12 3 1 68.55153
49 Arizona State Pac 12 2 2 63.25742
50 Louisiana Tech C-USA 2 1 62.83179
51 Utah State MWC 3 1 61.98127
52 Texas A&M SEC 2 2 61.90032
53 Hawaii MWC 4 1 61.64345
54 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 2 1 59.90282
55 Eastern Michigan MAC 2 2 58.86508
56 Minnesota Big Ten 3 1 58.28396
57 USC Pac 12 2 2 57.22129
58 Boston College ACC 3 1 54.69548
59 Vanderbilt SEC 2 2 53.64126
60 Fresno State MWC 2 1 52.28496
61 Akron MAC 2 1 51.24693
62 Iowa Big Ten 3 1 49.83405
63 TCU Big 12 2 2 49.46578
64 Troy Sun Belt 3 1 49.03898
65 FIU C-USA 2 2 46.86839
66 Oregon Pac 12 3 1 44.12704
67 New Mexico MWC 2 1 43.43097
68 Temple American 2 2 42.09517
69 Marshall C-USA 2 1 41.50229
70 Iowa State Big 12 1 2 41.08278
71 Toledo MAC 2 1 40.35052
72 UAB C-USA 2 1 40.16297
73 Arizona Pac 12 2 2 40.15094
74 Florida Atlantic C-USA 2 2 38.95013
75 Virginia Tech ACC 2 1 38.6156
76 Utah Pac 12 2 1 37.19878
77 Western Michigan MAC 2 2 35.504
78 Northwestern Big Ten 1 2 33.18816
79 Illinois Big Ten 2 2 32.56492
80 Wake Forest ACC 2 2 30.47676
81 Liberty Ind 1 2 29.7661
82 Louisville ACC 2 2 28.82846
83 Memphis American 3 2 27.71375
84 UNLV MWC 2 2 26.15418
85 LA-Lafayette Sun Belt 1 2 24.94671
86 Air Force MWC 1 2 24.79062
87 Pittsburgh ACC 2 2 24.73787
88 Navy American 2 2 24.58418
89 Purdue Big Ten 1 3 24.48725
90 MTSU C-USA 1 2 24.21865
91 Southern Miss C-USA 2 1 23.96121
92 Ohio MAC 1 2 23.43604
93 Tulane American 2 3 23.38714
94 LA-Monroe Sun Belt 2 2 21.98554
95 Kansas Big 12 2 2 21.93367
96 Kent State MAC 1 3 21.82423
97 Massachusetts Ind 2 3 21.67998
98 Kansas State Big 12 2 2 20.39438
99 Wyoming MWC 2 2 19.33606
100 Georgia Tech ACC 1 3 19.26321
101 Nevada MWC 2 2 19.25569
102 Old Dominion C-USA 1 3 17.9149
103 Florida State ACC 2 2 17.61
104 Charlotte C-USA 2 2 17.54844
105 North Carolina ACC 1 3 17.23679
106 Tennessee SEC 2 2 16.83127
107 Tulsa American 1 3 16.58694
108 SMU American 1 3 16.23462
109 Rutgers Big Ten 1 3 15.75488
110 Miami-OH MAC 1 3 15.67183
111 East Carolina American 1 2 14.5641
112 Connecticut American 1 3 14.54446
113 South Alabama Sun Belt 1 3 14.4026
114 Western Kentucky C-USA 1 3 13.638
115 Nebraska Big Ten 0 3 13.44066
116 Oregon State Pac 12 1 3 12.23398
117 Ball State MAC 1 3 11.67624
118 Arkansas SEC 1 3 10.24532
119 UTSA C-USA 1 3 10.07431
120 Rice C-USA 1 3 9.697127
121 Northern Illinois MAC 1 3 9.500462
122 UCLA Pac 12 0 4 9.309858
123 Texas State Sun Belt 1 3 8.16726
124 Georgia State Sun Belt 1 3 7.819892
125 Central Michigan MAC 1 3 7.585301
126 Bowling Green MAC 1 3 6.115704
127 Colorado State MWC 1 4 5.7116
128 New Mexico State Ind 1 4 5.223786
129 Other Other 7 89 4.393489
130 San Jose State MWC 0 3 3.372388
131 UTEP C-USA 0 4 1.121426

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

  • SEC – Georgia
  • ACC – Duke
  • Big Ten – Penn State
  • Big 12 – Oklahoma
  • Pac 12 – Stanford
  • AAC – Central Florida
  • C-USA – North Texas
  • Sun Belt – Appalachian State
  • MAC – Buffalo
  • MWC – Boise State

AT LARGE: Alabama, LSU, Penn State, Kentucky, Clemson, Ohio State

  • PEACH BOWL REGION: (1) Georgia v (4) Boise State, (2) Oklahoma v (3) Clemson
  • SUGAR BOWL REGION: (1) Duke v (4) Appalachian State, (2) LSU v (3) North Texas
  • ROSE BOWL REGION: (1) Penn State v (4) Central Florida, (2) Alabama v (3) Buffalo
  • FIESTA BOWL REGION: (1) Stanford v (4) Syracuse, (2) Kentucky v (3) Ohio State

 

Peonage Pigskin – The First 3 Weeks

Well, we took 3 weeks for me to actually have time to write something.  Part of it is time, and part of it was the model not converging.  But here we are, with a first ranking.  Obviously there is a lot of noise.  The average rating is 62, but the average STANDARD ERROR is 831.  So there is a ton of noise, and you expect that to go down as the season progresses.  This year, we’re using a Bradley-Terry model, which is outlined here (I tweaked it to use fractional wins to account for scoring margin)  The nice thing here is that the model – unlike the RPI – determines strength of schedule from the results, instead of having it imposed.  Now it’s limited by being backwards looking – but it has the advantage of assuming every team starts 0-0.  The model knows exactly as much about the teams as the teams’ games have reflected.  Alabama looks like the best team to me – but Duke has won 3 games decisively against FBS opponents including 2 true road wins.  With so little data now – that counts for a lot.

The ratings can be interpreted as victory odds.  So Alabama, based on the games and scoring margins to date – is likely to beat Indiana 2/3 of the time on a neutral field.

TEAM CONF W L RTG
1 Alabama SEC 3 0 391.8272
2 Duke ACC 3 0 314.6662
3 LSU SEC 3 0 236.4302
4 Penn State Big Ten 3 0 230.8822
5 Georgia SEC 3 0 229.7978
6 Indiana Big Ten 3 0 195.9335
7 Oklahoma State Big 12 3 0 185.7086
8 Ohio State Big Ten 3 0 179.811
9 Clemson ACC 3 0 178.9146
10 Mississippi State SEC 3 0 165.3629
11 Boston College ACC 3 0 157.1893
12 Oklahoma Big 12 3 0 153.0116
13 Kentucky SEC 3 0 128.3059
14 Notre Dame Ind 3 0 128.1531
15 Stanford Pac 12 3 0 123.9128
16 California Pac 12 3 0 120.0303
17 Washington State Pac 12 3 0 117.1462
18 Syracuse ACC 3 0 116.8423
19 Buffalo MAC 3 0 113.3421
20 North Texas C-USA 3 0 111.0716
21 West Virginia Big 12 2 0 107.7263
22 Virginia Tech ACC 2 0 103.9993
23 Army Ind 2 1 102.8839
24 UCF American 2 0 102.0586
25 South Florida American 3 0 101.9718
26 Minnesota Big Ten 3 0 100.5921
27 Cincinnati American 3 0 100
28 Akron MAC 2 0 99.36283
29 Boise State MWC 2 1 98.7169
30 Appalachian State Sun Belt 1 1 96.12706
31 Colorado Pac 12 3 0 92.26737
32 Vanderbilt SEC 2 1 91.24281
33 Louisiana Tech C-USA 2 0 88.6083
34 Auburn SEC 2 1 85.35776
35 Hawaii MWC 3 1 82.03129
36 Virginia ACC 2 1 79.87612
37 Missouri SEC 3 0 78.39522
38 Iowa Big Ten 3 0 77.52482
39 Ole Miss SEC 2 1 75.57031
40 BYU Ind 2 1 72.91397
41 Miami-FL ACC 2 1 72.40541
42 Washington Pac 12 2 1 71.8749
43 Arkansas State Sun Belt 2 1 68.7669
44 Michigan Big Ten 2 1 64.5022
45 Texas A&M SEC 2 1 62.87321
46 Fresno State MWC 2 1 62.74266
47 Marshall C-USA 2 0 61.52169
48 Oregon Pac 12 3 0 60.46253
49 TCU Big 12 2 1 57.07969
50 NC State ACC 2 0 55.79934
51 South Carolina SEC 1 1 54.04228
52 FIU C-USA 2 1 52.72031
53 Houston American 2 1 52.41703
54 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 2 1 50.18161
55 Baylor Big 12 2 1 49.28424
56 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 2 1 49.27636
57 Wake Forest ACC 2 1 49.25461
58 San Diego State MWC 2 1 48.97516
59 Eastern Michigan MAC 2 1 47.52213
60 Texas Tech Big 12 2 1 46.76711
61 Memphis American 2 1 46.16184
62 Florida Atlantic C-USA 2 1 46.06605
63 Wisconsin Big Ten 2 1 44.83163
64 Arizona State Pac 12 2 1 44.45318
65 Illinois Big Ten 2 1 43.53292
66 Michigan State Big Ten 1 1 43.18781
67 Navy American 2 1 42.39639
68 Texas Big 12 2 1 40.41018
69 Florida SEC 2 1 38.90917
70 Pittsburgh ACC 2 1 37.5394
71 Liberty Ind 1 1 36.66896
72 Maryland Big Ten 2 1 36.22492
73 Nevada MWC 2 1 35.59293
74 Utah Pac 12 2 1 34.82491
75 LA-Lafayette Sun Belt 1 1 34.52911
76 Ball State MAC 1 2 34.04602
77 Troy Sun Belt 2 1 32.78711
78 Utah State MWC 2 1 32.70955
79 LA-Monroe Sun Belt 2 1 31.47361
80 Air Force MWC 1 1 31.144
81 Northwestern Big Ten 1 2 30.94003
82 UAB C-USA 2 1 30.46617
83 USC Pac 12 1 2 29.91048
84 New Mexico MWC 2 1 29.84983
85 Tennessee SEC 2 1 28.08627
86 Louisville ACC 2 1 27.68249
87 Georgia Tech ACC 1 2 26.9026
88 South Alabama Sun Belt 1 2 26.47747
89 Kansas Big 12 2 1 26.32415
90 Kent State MAC 1 2 26.09076
91 Oregon State Pac 12 1 2 26.01972
92 MTSU C-USA 1 2 25.28967
93 Temple American 1 2 24.2328
94 Kansas State Big 12 2 1 22.96751
95 Rutgers Big Ten 1 2 22.25256
96 UNLV MWC 2 1 22.24587
97 Iowa State Big 12 0 2 21.75959
98 Charlotte C-USA 2 1 21.54634
99 Southern Miss C-USA 1 1 19.90826
100 Ohio MAC 1 1 19.62662
101 Toledo MAC 1 1 18.9247
102 Western Michigan MAC 1 2 18.91171
103 Wyoming MWC 2 2 18.89691
104 Arizona Pac 12 1 2 18.46037
105 Tulsa American 1 2 16.72408
106 Tulane American 1 2 16.59541
107 Florida State ACC 1 2 16.08489
108 Massachusetts Ind 1 3 16.05062
109 Colorado State MWC 1 3 14.99661
110 Connecticut American 1 2 14.21074
111 Arkansas SEC 1 2 13.89574
112 Texas State Sun Belt 1 2 12.92468
113 Nebraska Big Ten 0 2 12.63181
114 Georgia State Sun Belt 1 2 12.56469
115 Northern Illinois MAC 1 2 12.38911
116 Purdue Big Ten 0 3 11.63376
117 Rice C-USA 1 2 11.44312
118 North Carolina ACC 0 2 10.97318
119 East Carolina American 1 1 10.9426
120 Miami-OH MAC 0 3 10.63982
121 UCLA Pac 12 0 3 10.36811
122 Old Dominion C-USA 0 3 10.25546
123 Bowling Green MAC 1 2 9.598835
124 SMU American 0 3 8.998186
125 UTSA C-USA 0 3 6.467489
126 Central Michigan MAC 0 3 6.109851
127 Western Kentucky C-USA 0 3 4.645834
128 Other Other 6 83 4.387402
129 San Jose State MWC 0 3 3.487306
130 New Mexico State Ind 0 4 3.35678
131 UTEP C-USA 0 3 1.751285

What would a perfect CFP look like?  For me, it takes the 10 conference champs and 6 at-larges.  The power 5 teams are the top 5 seeds, with one Group of 5 team joining them as a top 6 seed if it is higher ranked than any of the Power 5 champions.  For now, we use the rankings for conference champs.

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

  • SEC – Alabama
  • ACC – Duke
  • Big Ten – Penn State
  • Big 12 – Oklahoma State
  • Pac 12 – Stanford
  • AAC – Central Florida
  • C-USA – North Texas
  • Sun Belt – Appalachian State
  • MAC – Buffalo
  • MWC – Boise State

AT LARGE: LSU, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio State, Clemson, Mississippi State

  • SUGAR BOWL REGION: (1) Alabama v (4) Appalachian State, (2) Indiana v (3) Clemson
  • PEACH BOWL REGION: (1) Duke v (4) Boise State, (2) Georgia v (3) Ohio State
  • ROSE BOWL REGION: (1) Penn State v (4) Central Florida, (2) LSU v (3) Buffalo
  • FIESTA BOWL REGION: (1) Oklahoma State v (4) North Texas, (2) Stanford v (3) Mississippi State

 

2017 College Football Rankings #5

Well, Championship Week is here.  With Auburn’s stunning rout of Alabama – things have come into much clearer focus.  Here are the rankings – and some thoughts.

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Wisconsin 12 0 0.5681 1.000 0.5681 40
2 Clemson 11 1 0.5146 0.954 0.5980 25
3 Oklahoma 11 1 0.5110 0.951 0.5944 26
4 Miami-FL 10 1 0.4720 0.917 0.5630 42
5 Georgia 11 1 0.4709 0.916 0.5542 46
6 Ohio State 10 2 0.4559 0.903 0.6226 12
7 Penn State 10 2 0.4430 0.892 0.6097 17
8 Alabama 11 1 0.4387 0.888 0.5220 59
9 Michigan State 9 3 0.4130 0.866 0.6630 5
10 UCF 11 0 0.4105 0.864 0.4105 91
11 Notre Dame 9 3 0.4060 0.860 0.6560 6
12 TCU 10 2 0.4026 0.857 0.5693 39
13 USC 10 2 0.4008 0.856 0.5675 41
14 Auburn 10 2 0.3855 0.843 0.5521 48
15 Northwestern 9 3 0.3568 0.818 0.6068 18
16 Oklahoma State 9 3 0.3490 0.811 0.5990 23
17 Washington 10 2 0.3257 0.791 0.4923 66
18 Michigan 8 4 0.3177 0.784 0.6510 8
19 Memphis 10 1 0.3173 0.784 0.4082 93
20 Stanford 9 3 0.3092 0.777 0.5592 44
21 Virginia Tech 9 3 0.2872 0.758 0.5372 52
22 NC State 8 4 0.2847 0.756 0.6180 14
23 Washington State 9 3 0.2843 0.755 0.5343 54
24 LSU 9 3 0.2670 0.740 0.5170 61
25 Iowa 7 5 0.2607 0.735 0.6774 4
26 Louisville 8 4 0.2400 0.717 0.5733 36
27 Boston College 7 5 0.2370 0.714 0.6537 7
28 Toledo 10 2 0.2302 0.709 0.3968 97
29 San Diego State 10 2 0.2222 0.702 0.3889 101
30 Boise State 9 3 0.2208 0.700 0.4708 75
31 Wake Forest 7 5 0.2050 0.687 0.6217 13
32 Mississippi State 8 4 0.2025 0.685 0.5358 53
33 Iowa State 7 5 0.1978 0.681 0.6145 15
34 South Carolina 8 4 0.1915 0.675 0.5249 57
35 Fresno State 9 3 0.1665 0.654 0.4165 88
36 West Virginia 7 5 0.1571 0.646 0.5738 35
37 South Florida 9 2 0.1549 0.644 0.3367 114
38 Purdue 6 6 0.1457 0.636 0.6457 9
39 Arizona State 7 5 0.1437 0.634 0.5604 43
40 Florida State 5 6 0.1368 0.628 0.6823 3
41 Kansas State 7 5 0.1348 0.626 0.5515 50
42 Army 8 3 0.1241 0.617 0.3968 98
43 Texas A&M 7 5 0.1169 0.611 0.5336 55
44 North Texas 9 3 0.1155 0.610 0.3655 107
45 Florida Atlantic 9 3 0.1142 0.608 0.3642 108
46 Houston 7 4 0.1122 0.607 0.4758 71
47 Oregon 7 5 0.1111 0.606 0.5277 56
48 Troy 9 2 0.1097 0.605 0.2915 125
49 Texas Tech 6 6 0.1049 0.600 0.6049 21
50 Texas 6 6 0.1041 0.600 0.6041 22
51 Navy 6 5 0.1040 0.600 0.5586 45
52 Kentucky 7 5 0.0971 0.594 0.5137 62
53 UCLA 6 6 0.0876 0.586 0.5876 32
54 Northern Illinois 8 4 0.0846 0.583 0.4179 87
55 Duke 6 6 0.0812 0.580 0.5812 33
56 Virginia 6 6 0.0778 0.577 0.5778 34
57 Missouri 7 5 0.0747 0.574 0.4914 67
58 Central Michigan 8 4 0.0713 0.572 0.4047 94
59 SMU 7 5 0.0620 0.564 0.4787 70
60 Georgia Tech 5 6 0.0602 0.562 0.6057 20
61 Maryland 4 8 0.0597 0.562 0.7264 1
62 Arizona 7 5 0.0556 0.558 0.4723 73
63 Ohio 8 4 0.0518 0.555 0.3851 103
64 Indiana 5 7 0.0434 0.547 0.6267 11
65 Akron 7 5 0.0337 0.539 0.4503 83
66 Nebraska 4 8 0.0322 0.538 0.6989 2
67 Utah 6 6 0.0247 0.531 0.5247 58
68 Ole Miss 6 6 0.0112 0.520 0.5112 63
69 Minnesota 5 7 0.0080 0.517 0.5913 29
70 Pittsburgh 5 7 0.0053 0.515 0.5887 31
71 Wyoming 7 5 -0.0143 0.498 0.4024 95
72 Arkansas State 7 3 -0.0184 0.494 0.2816 127
73 FIU 7 4 -0.0293 0.485 0.3344 115
74 California 5 7 -0.0296 0.484 0.5537 47
75 Appalachian State 7 4 -0.0323 0.482 0.3313 116
76 Colorado State 7 5 -0.0352 0.480 0.3815 104
77 Rutgers 4 8 -0.0354 0.479 0.6313 10
78 Temple 6 6 -0.0483 0.468 0.4517 82
79 Southern Miss 8 4 -0.0529 0.464 0.2805 128
80 Vanderbilt 5 7 -0.0636 0.455 0.5197 60
81 Florida 4 7 -0.0650 0.454 0.5714 38
82 UAB 8 4 -0.0663 0.453 0.2671 131
83 Syracuse 4 8 -0.0685 0.451 0.5982 24
84 Colorado 5 7 -0.0736 0.447 0.5098 64
85 Western Michigan 6 6 -0.0793 0.442 0.4207 86
86 Utah State 6 6 -0.0881 0.434 0.4119 90
87 Marshall 7 5 -0.0904 0.432 0.3263 120
88 Arkansas 4 8 -0.0938 0.429 0.5728 37
89 Air Force 5 7 -0.1122 0.413 0.4711 74
90 Buffalo 6 6 -0.1127 0.413 0.3873 102
91 Tulane 5 7 -0.1196 0.407 0.4637 79
92 Georgia State 6 4 -0.1267 0.401 0.2733 129
93 Tennessee 4 8 -0.1271 0.400 0.5396 51
94 Eastern Michigan 5 7 -0.1530 0.378 0.4303 85
95 North Carolina 3 9 -0.1586 0.373 0.5914 28
96 MTSU 6 6 -0.1590 0.373 0.3410 113
97 Louisiana Tech 6 6 -0.1732 0.361 0.3268 118
98 UTSA 6 5 -0.1843 0.351 0.2703 130
99 Cincinnati 4 8 -0.1914 0.345 0.4752 72
100 UNLV 5 7 -0.2103 0.329 0.3731 105
101 Miami-OH 5 7 -0.2131 0.326 0.3702 106
102 Western Kentucky 6 6 -0.2174 0.322 0.2826 126
103 New Mexico State 5 6 -0.2189 0.321 0.3265 119
104 Illinois 2 10 -0.2216 0.319 0.6118 16
105 BYU 4 9 -0.2244 0.317 0.4679 77
106 Old Dominion 5 7 -0.2251 0.316 0.3583 110
107 LA-Lafayette 5 6 -0.2381 0.305 0.3074 122
108 Connecticut 3 9 -0.2629 0.283 0.4871 69
109 South Alabama 4 7 -0.2753 0.273 0.3611 109
110 East Carolina 3 9 -0.2821 0.267 0.4679 76
111 LA-Monroe 4 7 -0.2824 0.266 0.3540 112
112 Nevada 3 9 -0.2954 0.255 0.4546 81
113 Massachusetts 4 7 -0.3075 0.245 0.3289 117
114 Kansas 1 11 -0.3110 0.242 0.6057 19
115 New Mexico 3 9 -0.3146 0.239 0.4354 84
116 Oregon State 1 11 -0.3226 0.232 0.5940 27
117 Baylor 1 11 -0.3261 0.229 0.5906 30
118 Tulsa 2 10 -0.3376 0.219 0.4957 65
119 Kent State 2 10 -0.3454 0.212 0.4880 68
120 Hawaii 3 9 -0.3519 0.207 0.3981 96
121 Other 9 89 -0.3564 0.203 0.5518 49
122 Bowling Green 2 10 -0.3705 0.191 0.4629 80
123 San Jose State 2 11 -0.3786 0.183 0.4676 78
124 Ball State 2 10 -0.4203 0.148 0.4131 89
125 Idaho 3 8 -0.4218 0.146 0.3055 124
126 Georgia Southern 2 9 -0.4225 0.146 0.3957 99
127 Coastal Carolina 2 9 -0.5119 0.069 0.3063 123
128 Texas State 2 10 -0.5143 0.066 0.3190 121
129 Rice 1 11 -0.5231 0.059 0.3936 100
130 Charlotte 1 11 -0.5610 0.026 0.3557 111
131 UTEP 0 12 -0.5914 0.000 0.4086 92

Wisconsin ends the regular season as the only 12-0 team in the field. Now, simply winning the games is not enough reason to be #1 – but with Alabama sporting an unusually skimpy resume compared to years past … the Badgers have earned the opportunity. Clemson’s wins are better but their loss at Syracuse looks much worse.  Looking at the standings (and really I think you can only really deal with resume here), the endgame Final 4 is pretty clear.

  • THE SEC champ will make the Final Four – Georgia winning is pretty straightforward.  Despite Auburn’s #14 standing, they beat Georgia and that should push them into the Top 10 somewhere, and there are plenty of non-quantitative things in their favor. (winning the SEC, better wins)
  • The Big Ten champ will make the Final Four – Ohio State, Wisconsin.  This is pretty easy.  Now, I am not sure if Wisconsin would still warrant a Top 4 spot if they lost.  Given Ohio State’s actual ability as a team – I could justify it.
  • The ACC champ will make the Final Four – there are two Top-4 teams.  This was simple.
  • Alabama could make it – but yeah they want some chaos.  With a lot of bad luck with their scheduled opponents, Alabama’s typical excellent season was only against the 57th rated schedule in the country.  Yes, Alabama can only play who is on its schedule – but this year’s slate really played with the team’s margin for error.
  • The Big 12 champ could make it.  If it’s Oklahoma – then it’s obvious.  If it’s TCU – it is dicier, although TCU has had a wonderful season.  TCU does benefit though from what Alabama wishes it had – one more chance to hang a great result.

So, who will win the conferences?  Well – if we turn to the “adjusted scoring margins”- which I think is a better reflection of team quality – here is what we get. (team adjusted scoring margin rank in parentheses)

  • American: UCF (#13) over Memphis (#31)
  • ACC: Clemson (#4) over Miami-FL (#15)
  • Big 12: Oklahoma (#9) over TCU (#11)
  • Big Ten: Ohio State (#2) over Wisconsin (#3)
  • C-USA: Florida Atlantic (#43) over North Texas (#86)
  • MAC: Toledo (#40) over Akron (#88)
  • MWC: Boise State (#34) over Fresno State (#53)
  • Pac-12: Stanford (#18) over USC (#20)
  • SEC: Georgia (#5) over Auburn (#6)

Do I believe Georgia and Stanford win rematches like the numbers say they could?  I am a bit more skeptical.  But we know that winning twice is hard, and Stanford and Georgia are good teams.  For this exercise, I am inclined to pick Auburn and USC though.

Given this, here are the automatic bids to the Bowl Series

  • Clemson (ACC Champ, semifinals)
  • Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ, semifinals)
  • Ohio State (Big Ten Champ, semifinals)
  • Auburn (SEC Champ, semifinals)
  • USC (Pac-12 Champ)
  • UCF (Group of 5 champ)

So this sets up the National Semifinals – it is possible Ohio State and Auburn finish 3/4.  I would imagine though the committee would like to avoid 2 regular season rematches if possible.

  • Sugar Bowl: Clemson v Ohio State
  • Rose Bowl: Oklahoma v Auburn

The other bowls?  The Orange Bowl would take the best ACC team left, Miami, and the highest ranked Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame non-champ.  So, we are deciding between Alabama, Georgia and Wisconsin.  Now, I think the committee will go SEC – but I’d put Wisconsin here.

  • Orange Bowl: Miami-FL v Wisconsin

So this leaves us UCF, USC and four more teams.  Penn State, Alabama, Georgia seem obvious.  The hard one is Notre Dame or TCU.  If Oklahoma beats TCU, I think it might be hard to justify TCU over Notre Dame, given the yawning gaps in schedule strength.  Using this, the rest of the bowls line up thusly:

  • Cotton Bowl: Penn State v Alabama
  • Fiesta Bowl: USC v Georgia
  • Peach Bowl: Notre Dame v UCF

2017 College Football Rankings #4

Well, that’s interestimg.  So now, TCU, Penn State add losses while Notre Dame continues to rise with routs of USC and NC State.  With the first college playoff rankings announced, it seemed like an opportune time to write a bit more here.  These are the rankings entering Friday’s games.

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 Georgia 8 0 0.5038 1.000 0.5038 40
2 Miami-FL 7 0 0.4774 0.977 0.4774 48
3 Alabama 8 0 0.4599 0.962 0.4599 55
4 Notre Dame 7 1 0.4597 0.962 0.5847 8
5 Clemson 7 1 0.4580 0.960 0.5830 9
6 Penn State 7 1 0.4574 0.960 0.5824 10
7 Ohio State 7 1 0.4543 0.957 0.5793 11
8 Wisconsin 8 0 0.4531 0.956 0.4531 60
9 Oklahoma State 7 1 0.4258 0.933 0.5508 22
10 Oklahoma 7 1 0.4230 0.930 0.5480 25
11 TCU 7 1 0.3799 0.893 0.5049 39
12 Michigan State 6 2 0.3527 0.869 0.6027 4
13 UCF 7 0 0.3452 0.863 0.3452 107
14 USC 7 2 0.3315 0.851 0.5537 21
15 Michigan 6 2 0.3250 0.845 0.5750 12
16 Iowa State 6 2 0.2927 0.817 0.5427 27
17 Washington 7 1 0.2907 0.816 0.4157 75
18 Virginia Tech 7 1 0.2901 0.815 0.4151 76
19 NC State 6 2 0.2760 0.803 0.5260 34
20 Memphis 7 1 0.2576 0.787 0.3826 91
21 Toledo 8 1 0.2375 0.770 0.3487 106
22 Mississippi State 6 2 0.2357 0.768 0.4857 42
23 Iowa 5 3 0.2111 0.747 0.5861 6
24 Northwestern 5 3 0.2106 0.746 0.5856 7
25 South Carolina 6 2 0.2101 0.746 0.4601 54
26 Washington State 7 2 0.2087 0.745 0.4309 66
27 Auburn 6 2 0.2052 0.742 0.4552 58
28 LSU 6 2 0.2045 0.741 0.4545 59
29 Boston College 5 4 0.1999 0.737 0.6444 3
30 San Diego State 7 2 0.1992 0.737 0.4214 73
31 Stanford 6 2 0.1987 0.736 0.4487 62
32 Kentucky 6 2 0.1808 0.721 0.4308 68
33 Boise State 6 2 0.1605 0.703 0.4105 78
34 Wake Forest 5 3 0.1538 0.697 0.5288 33
35 Maryland 4 4 0.1513 0.695 0.6513 2
36 Arizona 6 2 0.1244 0.672 0.3744 97
37 SMU 6 2 0.1232 0.671 0.3732 98
38 South Florida 7 1 0.1166 0.665 0.2416 123
39 Navy 5 3 0.1082 0.658 0.4832 46
40 Texas A&M 5 3 0.1047 0.655 0.4797 47
41 Nebraska 4 4 0.0978 0.649 0.5978 5
42 Louisville 5 4 0.0907 0.643 0.5351 31
43 Houston 5 3 0.0862 0.639 0.4612 53
44 Army 6 2 0.0842 0.637 0.3342 110
45 West Virginia 5 3 0.0841 0.637 0.4591 56
46 Georgia Tech 4 3 0.0774 0.631 0.5060 37
47 Troy 7 2 0.0728 0.627 0.2950 116
48 Northern Illinois 6 3 0.0718 0.626 0.4051 83
49 Texas 4 4 0.0713 0.626 0.5713 14
50 Ohio 7 2 0.0596 0.616 0.2819 118
51 Arizona State 4 4 0.0569 0.614 0.5569 19
52 Texas Tech 4 4 0.0480 0.606 0.5480 24
53 Virginia 5 3 0.0449 0.603 0.4199 74
54 Fresno State 5 3 0.0336 0.593 0.4086 80
55 UCLA 4 4 0.0324 0.592 0.5324 32
56 Oregon 5 4 0.0316 0.592 0.4761 49
57 FIU 5 2 0.0300 0.590 0.3158 113
58 Colorado State 6 3 0.0297 0.590 0.3631 102
59 Marshall 6 2 0.0073 0.571 0.2573 120
60 North Texas 5 3 0.0037 0.568 0.3787 94
61 Akron 5 4 0.0002 0.565 0.4446 63
62 Florida 3 4 -0.0092 0.556 0.5622 18
63 Syracuse 4 4 -0.0157 0.551 0.4843 43
64 Pittsburgh 4 5 -0.0160 0.551 0.5395 28
65 Florida Atlantic 5 3 -0.0219 0.545 0.3531 104
66 Colorado 5 4 -0.0221 0.545 0.4223 72
67 Wyoming 5 3 -0.0238 0.544 0.3512 105
68 Florida State 2 5 -0.0308 0.538 0.6835 1
69 Minnesota 4 4 -0.0371 0.532 0.4629 52
70 California 4 5 -0.0392 0.531 0.5164 35
71 Arkansas State 5 2 -0.0462 0.524 0.2395 124
72 Purdue 3 5 -0.0532 0.518 0.5718 13
73 Indiana 3 5 -0.0546 0.517 0.5704 15
74 Central Michigan 5 4 -0.0592 0.513 0.3853 89
75 Rutgers 3 5 -0.0606 0.512 0.5644 17
76 Air Force 4 4 -0.0691 0.505 0.4309 67
77 Arkansas 3 5 -0.0708 0.503 0.5542 20
78 Utah 4 4 -0.0726 0.502 0.4274 69
79 Kansas State 4 4 -0.0730 0.501 0.4270 70
80 Appalachian State 5 3 -0.0741 0.500 0.3009 115
81 Tennessee 3 5 -0.0766 0.498 0.5484 23
82 Western Michigan 5 4 -0.0766 0.498 0.3678 100
83 Vanderbilt 3 5 -0.0805 0.495 0.5445 26
84 Duke 4 5 -0.0838 0.492 0.4717 50
85 UTSA 5 2 -0.1169 0.463 0.1688 131
86 Southern Miss 5 3 -0.1379 0.445 0.2371 126
87 Ole Miss 3 5 -0.1416 0.442 0.4834 45
88 UAB 5 3 -0.1607 0.425 0.2143 129
89 Missouri 3 5 -0.1612 0.425 0.4638 51
90 Utah State 4 5 -0.1656 0.421 0.3900 86
91 Tulane 3 5 -0.1676 0.420 0.4574 57
92 Temple 4 5 -0.1750 0.413 0.3805 93
93 Georgia State 4 3 -0.1774 0.411 0.2512 121
94 Louisiana Tech 4 4 -0.1824 0.407 0.3176 112
95 Western Kentucky 5 3 -0.1932 0.397 0.1818 130
96 MTSU 3 5 -0.2128 0.380 0.4122 77
97 New Mexico 3 5 -0.2252 0.370 0.3998 85
98 UNLV 3 5 -0.2356 0.361 0.3894 87
99 Cincinnati 2 6 -0.2448 0.353 0.5052 38
100 Illinois 2 6 -0.2541 0.345 0.4959 41
101 Eastern Michigan 3 6 -0.2611 0.339 0.4056 82
102 South Alabama 3 5 -0.2664 0.334 0.3586 103
103 Buffalo 3 6 -0.2792 0.323 0.3875 88
104 Connecticut 3 5 -0.2896 0.314 0.3354 108
105 New Mexico State 3 5 -0.2901 0.314 0.3349 109
106 Miami-OH 3 6 -0.2922 0.312 0.3745 96
107 Hawaii 3 5 -0.2941 0.310 0.3309 111
108 LA-Lafayette 3 4 -0.2978 0.307 0.2737 119
109 North Carolina 1 8 -0.3229 0.285 0.5660 16
110 Tulsa 2 7 -0.3282 0.281 0.4496 61
111 Oregon State 1 7 -0.3377 0.272 0.5373 29
112 Kent State 2 7 -0.3401 0.270 0.4376 65
113 East Carolina 2 6 -0.3428 0.268 0.4072 81
114 BYU 2 7 -0.3517 0.260 0.4261 71
115 Kansas 1 7 -0.3642 0.250 0.5108 36
116 Idaho 3 6 -0.3803 0.236 0.2864 117
117 Old Dominion 2 6 -0.3809 0.235 0.3691 99
118 Bowling Green 2 7 -0.4009 0.218 0.3769 95
119 LA-Monroe 3 5 -0.4046 0.215 0.2204 128
120 Ball State 2 7 -0.4124 0.208 0.3653 101
121 Other 9 83 -0.4180 0.203 0.4842 44
122 Nevada 1 7 -0.4366 0.187 0.4384 64
123 Baylor 0 8 -0.4646 0.163 0.5354 30
124 San Jose State 1 8 -0.4854 0.145 0.4035 84
125 Rice 1 7 -0.4930 0.138 0.3820 92
126 Texas State 2 6 -0.5044 0.128 0.2456 122
127 Massachusetts 2 6 -0.5110 0.123 0.2390 125
128 Charlotte 1 7 -0.5697 0.072 0.3053 114
129 Georgia Southern 0 7 -0.5896 0.055 0.4104 79
130 UTEP 0 8 -0.6165 0.031 0.3835 90
131 Coastal Carolina 1 7 -0.6528 0.000 0.2222 127

The bowl matchups if the season ended today? (with a little projection for mega-conferences)

  • The top 4 is less simple here.  Considering that Miami-FL and Clemson would play each other … and Alabama and Georgia would play each other.  I use the adjusted scoring margins to choose winners there.  This puts Clemson and Georgia in the Top 2.  Despite a slightly higher ranking, Ohio State gets credit for the head to head win (which moves them into Big Ten champ territory).  Thus, Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson and Ohio State get the 4 spots now.
  • The other automatic bids include the Pac-12 leader (#14 USC) and the Group of Five rep (#13 Central Florida – San Diego State is higher ranked but not leading the Mountain West), Oklahoma State (Big 12).
  • Orange Bowl is the highest remaining ACC team against the highest ranked Big Ten, SEC, or ND team that is not a conference champ.  So – this means Alabama gets the slot
  • That leaves four more teams to place into bowls.  By ranking, we go Penn State, Wisconsin, Oklahoma and TCU.  This seems reasonable.
  • Using these matchups?
    • Sugar Bowl: Georgia v Ohio State
    • Rose Bowl: Notre Dame v Clemson
    • Orange Bowl: Miami-FL v Alabama
    • Fiesta Bowl: USC v Central Florida
    • Cotton Bowl: Penn State v Oklahoma
    • Peach Bowl: Wisconsin v TCU

2017 College Football Rankings #3

It’s always the weeks you don’t expect where the fun lies.  What looked like a sleepy weekend without any ranked v ranked games – and whaddya know?  Clemson, Washington, Washington State, Auburn all go down, with Michigan just dodging a bullet.  TCU registers another good road win to continue to amass the best resume in the country to date.  How does it all shake down rankings-wise?

W L Pts Scale SOS Rank
1 TCU 6 0 0.5517 1.000 0.5517 17
2 Alabama 7 0 0.5346 0.987 0.5346 23
3 Penn State 6 0 0.5116 0.970 0.5116 35
4 Miami-FL 5 0 0.5115 0.970 0.5115 36
5 Georgia 7 0 0.4809 0.947 0.4809 51
6 Wisconsin 6 0 0.4617 0.933 0.4617 57
7 Michigan State 5 1 0.4485 0.923 0.6152 4
8 Ohio State 6 1 0.4026 0.889 0.5454 21
9 Clemson 6 1 0.3984 0.886 0.5413 22
10 Michigan 5 1 0.3966 0.885 0.5632 14
11 USC 6 1 0.3813 0.873 0.5241 28
12 Oklahoma 5 1 0.3812 0.873 0.5479 18
13 Oklahoma State 5 1 0.3635 0.860 0.5302 25
14 Notre Dame 5 1 0.3566 0.855 0.5233 29
15 San Diego State 6 1 0.3390 0.842 0.4818 49
16 NC State 6 1 0.3298 0.835 0.4726 53
17 UCF 5 0 0.3242 0.831 0.3242 110
18 Navy 5 1 0.2842 0.801 0.4509 58
19 Washington 6 1 0.2779 0.797 0.4207 74
20 Washington State 6 1 0.2741 0.794 0.4170 76
21 Iowa 4 2 0.2404 0.769 0.5738 9
22 Virginia 5 1 0.2327 0.763 0.3994 88
23 Stanford 5 2 0.2314 0.762 0.5171 32
24 Kentucky 5 1 0.2247 0.757 0.3914 93
25 Memphis 5 1 0.2005 0.739 0.3672 100
26 Virginia Tech 5 1 0.1997 0.739 0.3664 101
27 South Carolina 5 2 0.1965 0.736 0.4822 47
28 Texas A&M 5 2 0.1963 0.736 0.4820 48
29 Toledo 5 1 0.1957 0.736 0.3624 102
30 Wake Forest 4 2 0.1799 0.724 0.5132 33
31 Florida State 2 3 0.1673 0.714 0.7673 1
32 Iowa State 4 2 0.1604 0.709 0.4937 39
33 LSU 5 2 0.1596 0.709 0.4453 59
34 Auburn 5 2 0.1531 0.704 0.4389 64
35 Mississippi State 4 2 0.1509 0.702 0.4842 45
36 Texas Tech 4 2 0.1480 0.700 0.4813 50
37 South Florida 6 0 0.1470 0.699 0.1470 131
38 Boise State 4 2 0.1470 0.699 0.4803 52
39 Maryland 3 3 0.1423 0.696 0.6423 2
40 North Texas 4 2 0.1087 0.671 0.4420 62
41 California 4 3 0.1027 0.666 0.5313 24
42 Houston 4 2 0.0998 0.664 0.4331 67
43 Arizona State 3 3 0.0989 0.664 0.5989 5
44 Fresno State 4 2 0.0986 0.663 0.4320 69
45 Utah 4 2 0.0914 0.658 0.4247 72
46 Marshall 5 1 0.0903 0.657 0.2570 124
47 Indiana 3 3 0.0790 0.649 0.5790 6
48 SMU 4 2 0.0788 0.649 0.4122 80
49 Northwestern 3 3 0.0766 0.647 0.5766 8
50 Colorado State 5 2 0.0761 0.647 0.3618 103
51 Northern Illinois 4 2 0.0707 0.643 0.4040 86
52 Purdue 3 3 0.0678 0.641 0.5678 11
53 Army 5 2 0.0662 0.639 0.3520 104
54 Texas 3 3 0.0644 0.638 0.5644 12
55 West Virginia 4 2 0.0634 0.637 0.3968 89
56 Troy 4 2 0.0632 0.637 0.3966 90
57 Duke 4 3 0.0616 0.636 0.4902 42
58 Oregon 4 3 0.0596 0.634 0.4882 43
59 Boston College 3 4 0.0559 0.632 0.6274 3
60 Louisville 4 3 0.0539 0.630 0.4825 46
61 Appalachian State 4 2 0.0424 0.622 0.3757 98
62 Ole Miss 3 3 0.0221 0.607 0.5221 30
63 Florida 3 3 0.0178 0.603 0.5178 31
64 Akron 4 3 0.0153 0.602 0.4439 60
65 Georgia Tech 3 2 0.0099 0.598 0.4099 81
66 Arizona 4 2 0.0045 0.594 0.3379 108
67 UCLA 3 3 -0.0042 0.587 0.4958 38
68 Wyoming 4 2 -0.0067 0.585 0.3266 109
69 Nebraska 3 4 -0.0079 0.584 0.5636 13
70 Syracuse 4 3 -0.0111 0.582 0.4175 75
71 Vanderbilt 3 4 -0.0128 0.581 0.5587 15
72 Western Michigan 4 3 -0.0152 0.579 0.4134 79
73 Minnesota 3 3 -0.0280 0.569 0.4720 54
74 FIU 4 2 -0.0339 0.565 0.2995 117
75 Tennessee 3 3 -0.0367 0.563 0.4633 56
76 Ohio 5 2 -0.0383 0.562 0.2474 125
77 Southern Miss 4 2 -0.0399 0.561 0.2935 118
78 Colorado 4 3 -0.0474 0.555 0.3812 97
79 Tulane 3 3 -0.0610 0.545 0.4390 63
80 UAB 4 2 -0.0762 0.534 0.2571 123
81 New Mexico 3 3 -0.0772 0.533 0.4228 73
82 Kansas State 3 3 -0.0836 0.528 0.4164 77
83 Arkansas 2 4 -0.0882 0.525 0.5785 7
84 Arkansas State 3 2 -0.1095 0.509 0.2905 119
85 Florida Atlantic 3 3 -0.1119 0.507 0.3881 95
86 UTSA 3 2 -0.1218 0.500 0.2782 121
87 Louisiana Tech 3 3 -0.1247 0.498 0.3753 99
88 Rutgers 2 4 -0.1579 0.473 0.5088 37
89 Georgia State 3 2 -0.1596 0.472 0.2404 126
90 Pittsburgh 2 5 -0.1624 0.470 0.5519 16
91 MTSU 3 4 -0.1636 0.469 0.4078 83
92 Buffalo 3 4 -0.1690 0.465 0.4025 87
93 Western Kentucky 4 2 -0.1755 0.460 0.1579 130
94 New Mexico State 3 4 -0.1801 0.456 0.3913 94
95 Air Force 2 4 -0.1820 0.455 0.4847 44
96 Utah State 3 4 -0.1841 0.453 0.3873 96
97 Cincinnati 2 5 -0.2014 0.441 0.5129 34
98 Tulsa 2 5 -0.2216 0.426 0.4927 40
99 South Alabama 2 4 -0.2243 0.424 0.4423 61
100 LA-Lafayette 3 3 -0.2257 0.423 0.2743 122
101 Central Michigan 3 4 -0.2290 0.420 0.3424 107
102 Illinois 2 4 -0.2315 0.418 0.4351 66
103 Kent State 2 5 -0.2454 0.408 0.4689 55
104 UNLV 2 4 -0.2582 0.398 0.4084 82
105 Eastern Michigan 2 4 -0.2592 0.398 0.4075 84
106 Missouri 1 5 -0.2616 0.396 0.5718 10
107 Temple 3 4 -0.2672 0.392 0.3042 116
108 LA-Monroe 3 3 -0.2807 0.382 0.2193 128
109 Hawaii 3 4 -0.2824 0.380 0.2891 120
110 Oregon State 1 6 -0.3107 0.359 0.5465 19
111 Old Dominion 2 4 -0.3171 0.355 0.3496 105
112 Ball State 2 4 -0.3209 0.352 0.3457 106
113 BYU 1 6 -0.3323 0.343 0.5249 26
114 North Carolina 1 6 -0.3328 0.343 0.5244 27
115 Connecticut 2 4 -0.3459 0.333 0.3208 113
116 Idaho 2 4 -0.3587 0.324 0.3080 115
117 Miami-OH 2 5 -0.3904 0.300 0.3239 111
118 Kansas 1 5 -0.4070 0.288 0.4263 71
119 Other 9 82 -0.4091 0.286 0.4920 41
120 Nevada 1 6 -0.4209 0.278 0.4363 65
121 Rice 1 5 -0.4391 0.264 0.3943 91
122 San Jose State 1 7 -0.4428 0.261 0.4322 68
123 East Carolina 1 6 -0.4501 0.256 0.4071 85
124 Baylor 0 6 -0.4544 0.253 0.5456 20
125 Bowling Green 1 6 -0.4645 0.245 0.3927 92
126 Texas State 1 6 -0.5343 0.193 0.3228 112
127 Georgia Southern 0 5 -0.5686 0.168 0.4314 70
128 UTEP 0 7 -0.5863 0.155 0.4137 78
129 Coastal Carolina 1 5 -0.6005 0.144 0.2328 127
130 Charlotte 0 7 -0.6852 0.081 0.3148 114
131 Massachusetts 0 6 -0.7947 0.000 0.2053 129

The bowl matchups if the season ended today? (with a little projection for mega-conferences)

  • The top 4 is simple.  TCU, Alabama, Penn State, Miami-FL
  • The other automatic bids include the Pac-12 leader (#11 USC) and the Group of Five rep (#17 Central Florida – San Diego State is higher ranked but not leading the Mountain West)
  • Orange Bowl is ACC vs Notre Dame, SEC or Big Ten.  Going by straight rankings Clemson vs Georgia
  • That leaves four more teams to place into bowls.  Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan are the four teams by ranking.  That said, it is unlikely all four teams joined Penn State here, we drop Michigan and promote Oklahoma here.
  • Using these matchups?
    • Sugar Bowl: TCU v Miami-FL
    • Rose Bowl: Alabama v Penn State
    • Orange Bowl: Clemson v Georgia
    • Fiesta Bowl: USC v Ohio State
    • Cotton Bowl: Michigan State v Oklahoma
    • Peach Bowl: Wisconsin v Central Florida